Fall Weather 2017

ALY .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A mainly dry and cool day is on tap for Saturday as model solutions
continue to keep the coastal wave offshore, limiting its impacts on
the region. The western fringe of the moisture field from the upper
level jet may bring some light snow to the Litchfield Hills and
points south and east during the day.

Of more interest is the next short wave within the long wave trough
that approaches from the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley Saturday
night. QG forcing appears to be a bit more robust, in addition to
the possibility for the upper low to become closed off as it lifts
into our area. With cold air securely in place, there is potential
for measurable snowfall late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Reports I’m seeing look like just a few inches. Need more moisture to go along with these negative oscillations in the jet stream. No complaints here about manmade snow, but the resorts could use some help from Mother Nature to get more terrain open ahead of the holidays. I’m itching for some powder!

Looks like a few inches possible Tuesday 12/12

Or more?

What day is the map for?  Looks like Belle could pick up more than a few.  

Happy start to the season all!

That map is kookoo...
There will be a clipper on tues..5 days out ..real hard to pin it down....

looks like the cold will stick around til Christmas..It should be the best holiday season in years..

that said the West is in deep shit...Scary stuff

http://weatherwest.com/archives/5982

Really interesting article that the Utah Avy Center just posted about the current weather situation and why it might become more prevalent.

Some cruel irony going on with 'Bama gettin the goods.





On the plus side Bohemia is getting some love.

JasonWx wrote

That map is kookoo...

As I implied I believe it indicates the potential for more than one inch in parts of NY.

I know few NYSkiBlog readers would care, but there was 8-10 inches of snow in the NC mountains by lunch time today.  It's rare that people have to worry about driving on snowy roads for SugarFest, the annual 2-day event held by Sugar Mountain near Boone that includes demo tents and a race clinic.  Lots of happy folks who are members of SkiSoutheast.

Is the GFS backing off the cold until Christmas call?

We stay cold until Christmas...In the Tea Leaves the GFS tries to bring in a wet system...Long time away

Harv, stop with the glass half empty. Try to be positive like Jason.

Jamesdeluxe wrote

Harv, stop with the glass half empty. Try to be positive like Jason.

LOL

Is temp an easier, more accurate forecast, than precip is?

over the last couple of days the models are starting to back off the cold pattern in long term..

more on this as the days go on

How does this jive with what you are seeing?

If it went beyond 14days i think we would be getting closer to the red..

it is trying to make the west more active..and develop a trough in the middle of the country

Pattern will continue to be challenging for the models to pin down, there are some signs of a more classic la nina pattern developing toward the end of the month which could feature a pretty strong temp gradient around the Northeast.  Too early to tell which side of the boundary we will be on but the pattern does look active.

I think the northern areas will do well with this pattern..