Storm Speculation 1/23-1/25/17

JTG4eva! wrote

.....in the right places.

There you go Jason, FIFY!  Placid/Whiteface, where it may be 23 degrees right now, most likely will get some mixing.  Hey, not a good enough storm to take a powder day, but if I was looking for a base building storm after a warmup this nice 3-5 inch smearing of cream cheese is certainly welcome.

JTG just commenting on the forecasters that were going for 12"

extended snowmaking temps are on tap..,

Looks to me like the forecast verified. The mets I followed called for 4-6 with a chance of 0-8.

I didn't see anybody calling for 12, everyone said calling it was problematic.

who called for 12 inches?  The forecast was for 3-6 inches of snow...Gore and Face reporting 3 inches so far..probably a mix of snow and sleet...good base building snow.

Open Snow is looking good for WF early next week with 6-12"

https://opensnow.com/location/whiteface

Gore found more snow?  Just updated to 6 inches...they are getting it good now could end up with 8 inches?????

NorEaster27 wrote

who called for 12 inches?  The forecast was for 3-6 inches of snow...Gore and Face reporting 3 inches so far..probably a mix of snow and sleet...good base building snow.

Weather Underground. They've been ridiculously far off for every snow event this season.

Whiteface also says 6 inches now.....

Various forecasts I follow had been showing snow in the 10 to 12 inch range for WF (at the summit, slightly less at the base) during the week, with anywhere from 6 to 8 from this storm, and several more inches across Thurs/Fri and into Sat.

WF probably got to the summit and found 6, with the 3 inches reported earlier at the base.  Heavy precipitation this morning, but with the temperature setup that will probably include some mixing.  Bottom line though....the 6 to 8 for the summit out of this storm looks like it was a good (maybe even low) number.  Now the potential numbers I'm seeing for Thurs/Fri/Sat are up, but forecasts vary.  Mountain Forecast showing as much as 10 inches at the summit Thurs to Sat.

Hearing WF received 3 inches in 30 minutes this morning....

SNOWBOOBS!!!!!!!

Forecasts updated to reflect cooling aloft and observations of snow area-wide, with heavy snow in the Adirondacks.  Looking at another 3 to 5 inches of snow today in the Daks, on top of 7 by now......meaning whoever was forecasting 10 to 12 out of this storm was lucky/good.  East of the Daks into VT may see more mixing.  NOAA forecasts confirming broad mid level trough building over the area from Wed through the weekend, with embedded shortwaves providing for snow showers, especially across the higher terrain.

Shaping up to be a pretty good week.

This is why I said I was snowpimistic for this event.  The airtemps aloft were a salad bowl of confusion, but there were several "shots on goal", any of which could have saved us given how barely on the bad side of temps we were: elevation effect, models being too warm by a few degrees given the "getting colder" trend, dynamic cooling, etc....

Harvey wrote

Looks to me like the forecast verified. The mets I followed called for 4-6 with a chance of 0-8.

I didn't see anybody calling for 12, everyone said calling it was problematic.

Hahahaha... looks like it's still verified.  I'm rooting for the fail however, bring on the 12!

At Gore, They got sleet than snow, maybe 3" of each. This gave a nice base for "everything"

sleet is great for building a base in the w....

NY finally gets more snow from a storm than VT

NorEaster27 wrote

NY finally gets more snow from a storm than VT

When I see the train going right up the Hudson Valley that is a sign. Unusual, but it happens.

NorEaster27 wrote

NY finally gets more snow from a storm than VT

Yeh, I was pretty excited about this!  Too bad that's something to get excited about though!