Storm Speculation: 2/13/14

Noah John wrote

So don't say "woot woot".

Don't say ANYTHING without your sumo avatar. WTF?

I like this dude's map, and his discussion........

"The westward shift suggests heavy snow will extend back to the middle of Pennsylvania and then northeast to all of Vermont."  Just a wee bit more west and the Dacks could be in the 6-12 zone.  As this map has it now, looks like I may be in the 12-18 zone.

Right now I think what this one does is anyone's guess still....as to where the exact track ends up, as to how much phasing occurs with the low coming across the lakes, how fast it comes up the coast.  Lots of different maps out there.  It will be a healthy storm for most......but could it BOMB and be a monster?  Let's hope.

Certainly seems like bombing is a possibility.  The storm track continues to look good on this model:



(Noah did you figure out what model this is? WPC? is that a model?)

WPC stands for Weather Prediction Center.  I don't think that's a model.  I think it's a forecast.

12z gfs drags in big time warm air... also there isn't a strong high in quebec

.....which means a mixing of precip and a storm that moves through quick with nothing to block it?

Is the warm air indicative of a track a little more to the west/closer to the coast?  Could that be good for the north country (push the precip further inland), assuming the warm air doesn't get that far?

the 850 low is a little to close to the coast..that said , southern new england , ie: southern vt and nh might do quite well ..
 the  adk's are too far north and west to really benefit from this scenario ..

this is one tough  system to pin down..

Hey Noah!!

GFS seems to be moving inland...

Models have definitely brought it inland.  Burlington NWS 31 minutes ago:

SNOW/QPF: ONCE AGAIN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT
SNOWFALL/QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN COMPLEX SYSTEM...SHARP GRADIENTS...AND
IMPACTS OF MESO-SCALE BANDING. OUR BEST FCST ATTM SUGGESTS 6 TO 12
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE DACKS INTO THE CPV/NEK WITH 10 TO 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE FOR MTNS OF CENTRAL VT. MEANWHILE...2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR SLV. ALSO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL RATIOS BUT
THINKING 14 TO 1 FOR VALLEYS AND 18 TO 1 FOR MTNS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
ALSO...WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN FURTHER SHIFT WEST IN SFC TRACK FOR
POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIP IMPACTING OUR EXTREME SE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS VALUE GET VERY CLOSE TO 540DAM.


This is a nice storm.  I like the pattern we're in here mid-Feb.


Harv, isn't that next Tuesday's potential event?  One at a time buddy....one at a time.

A lot of snowfall maps that look like dicks are flying around.

Just saw this one on Facebook. If only it could be this way:

Noah John wrote

Harv, isn't that next Tuesday's potential event?  One at a time buddy....one at a time.

I didn't realize there is potential for another event Monday night.

By the way, you Whiteface guys... you have to make sure Coach doesn't ski this storm, he only likes clippers.

No coastals.

mattchuck2 wrote

A lot of snowfall maps that look like dicks are flying around.

Just saw this one on Facebook. If only it could be this way:

agree..and i'm color blind

WIGGLE WOOT WIGGLE!  O, yeah it worked and now NJ has to say  WOOT WOOT!

If you're bored and need to read more than that Sugarbush thread on the woodstove...check out the latest NWS forecast discussion from Albany...the jury is still out with this one and this forecaster tries to explain it...I hope this link works...

 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off   

sudsnbumps wrote

If you're bored and need to read more than that Sugarbush thread on the woodstove...check out the latest NWS forecast discussion from Albany...the jury is still out with this one and this forecaster tries to explain it...I hope this link works...

 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

Link works.  

FYI: The Albany discussion and the major forecast discussions effecting NY are at the top of the NYSB Weather Page:

mattchuck2 wrote

A lot of snowfall maps that look like dicks are flying around.

Uh.....WTH WAS THAT ? Commenting out(?) a phallic forecast, winged weather wangs ? .....that's some drift,,,, where you going with that ?

Never mind. Didn't ask, don't tell.

Harvey wrote

By the way, you Whiteface guys... you have to make sure Coach doesn't ski this storm, he only likes clippers.

No coastals.

He's generally right.  WF has a varied history with coastal storms.  When they hit they're great and bring more snow than any other kind of storm but often these "historic" Nor'Easters wiff south and east, clobbering the I-95 cities and leaving us high, dry and very cold with big wind.  Worse yet we get Lake Runners that come out of the Gulf and run up to our west leaving us on the warm and wet side.  Some winters we just get clipper after clipper, 3-5" a shot.  You don't hear about 'em in Jersey or Boston but they add up in the north country.  And there's no such thing as a warm clipper; if they come in, they come in cold and snowy.  That said, it's hard not to get excited about a major Nor'easter and this year they've treated WF well.  So far.

I'm not sure about the dicks part either but I like that yellow ribbon through warren county. I haven't seen anyone else calling for 12-18. Sure would be sweet. I have a big meeting at work tomorrow.....but I might be coming down with something. cough cough.

BTW it started snowing in saratoga about 7am this morning. It hasn't added up to much yet but its coming down pretty good. That's about 3 hours earlier than they were calling for.

What's the matter Suds? You don't like reading about the misery in VT:)