Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

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MC2 5678F589 MC2 5678F589
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

Uh oh:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/

The Northeast is warming especially fast.

Anthony Broccoli, a climate scientist at Rutgers, defines an unusually warm or cold month as ranking among the five most extreme in the record going back to the late 1800s. In the case of New Jersey, he says, “since 2000, we’ve had 39 months that were unusually warm and zero that were unusually cold.”

Scientists do not completely understand the Northeast hot spot. But fading winters and very warm water offshore are the most likely culprits, experts say. That’s because climate change is a cycle that feeds on itself.

Warmer winters mean less ice and snow cover. Normally, ice and snow reflect solar radiation back into space, keeping the planet relatively cool. But as the ice and snow retreat, the ground absorbs the solar radiation and warms.
Edit to add picture:
PeeTex PeeTex
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

So now let’s make Harvs life more difficult than it already is.

The last several winters have produced more snow pack than I’ve seen since the banner winter of 2001 where there was a snow pack so deep it was up to the roof on the Summit warming hut at Gore.

Have you looked at the Stats on the Greenland glaciers - they have been expanding again.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

Oh - but just like Biden, you choose “truth” over facts, I’ll stick with facts.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
riverc0il riverc0il
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

PeeTex wrote
So now let’s make Harvs life more difficult than it already is.

The last several winters have produced more snow pack than I’ve seen since the banner winter of 2001 where there was a snow pack so deep it was up to the roof on the Summit warming hut at Gore.

Have you looked at the Stats on the Greenland glaciers - they have been expanding again.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

Oh - but just like Biden, you choose “truth” over facts, I’ll stick with facts.
So, this is a logical problem with taking an isolated data point and extrapolating a conclusion that the data point does not support.

"That's because, despite the fact that this particular glacier is growing, the whole Greenland ice sheet is still losing lots and lots of ice. Jakobshavn drains only about seven percent of the entire ice sheet, so even if it were growing robustly, mass loss from the rest of the ice sheet would outweigh its slight expansion.".

It is kinda like finding the places on the globe that are colder and snowier than average and pointing to those as "proof" that climate change is not reality even though the majority of areas in the globe have an overall significant increase in average temperature.

"It’s also why despite serious implications for Greenland’s near future ice loss, researchers caution the findings don’t mean we’ve found a magic climate reverse. It’s in fact akin to a pendulum. Jakobshavn had periods of fast retreat in the 20th century, followed by thickening, then retreat, Khazendar says—but on average the air and sea are warming, and that means retreats are always going to be bigger than advances, adds Willis."

Context. Nuance.

Regarding snowfall, let's not forget we had one of the worst winters in my lifetime a few years ago. Before that, we had a few pretty average and below average winters. We can have a few jackpots amongst an overall worsening trend. A two recent data points does not a trend make. And climate change does not mean every place warms equally, some places may get colder and snowier even though the overall average increases for most locations. For those of us in the northeast, who knows what the long term implications are. It is certainly hard to see the long term trend after having an above average winter.
PeeTex PeeTex
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

There is a lot of data to support The theory that 2006 was the peak of a natural 200 year cycle, on of which is that there has not been any significant global mean temperatures rise in the last 10 years. Couple that with the observed lessening of solar output as we approach a solar minimum and you have enough contrary data to say that the climate will get colder, not warmer although this does not support the political narrative that as a country we need to unilaterally hobble our economy.

Now with that said I do believe we need to curb population growth and conserve more but Miami isn’t under water as Al Gore predicted it would be by now.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
raisingarizona raisingarizona
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

In reply to this post by riverc0il
Warmer air holds more moisture and can result in heavier snowfalls with more moisture content in the snow. That’s a great recipe for fat bases, some intermittent rain of course but some nice base too.
PeeTex PeeTex
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

raisingarizona wrote
Warmer air holds more moisture and can result in heavier snowfalls with more moisture content in the snow. That’s a great recipe for fat bases, some intermittent rain of course but some nice base too.
Interesting you say that- the bigger by-product of burning fossil fuels is water vapor rather than CO2.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
Scersk Scersk
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

In reply to this post by riverc0il
riverc0il wrote
And climate change does not mean every place warms equally, some places may get colder and snowier even though the overall average increases for most locations. For those of us in the northeast, who knows what the long term implications are.
Spot on. Am I a climate change denier? Far from it. Earth is warming; whether it is part of a natural cycle or not, how humans are spewing CO₂ into the atmosphere is magnifying that warming. Yet the climate is a very complex system; thus, the local effects of climate change are somewhat unpredictable. You would think, with the computing power we have… but…

Anyone remember that anomalous blob of warm water sitting off the PNW for a few years? How that led to PNA+ and better flows for cold air into the Northeast? Is it possible we're seeing another anomalous blob in the Gulf of Maine, Long Island Sound, and the Atlantic Ocean off the Jersey shore, etc.? If that goes away at some point, for whatever reason, we're going to get a lot colder and, with the excess of water vapor in the atmosphere right now, I would assume that means more snow. Looking further out, what if the Greenland melt shuts down the AMOC?

Anyone indicating that they can predict the microlevel or near-macrolevel effects of climate change is looking for clicks or trying to rake in research dollars. And, to my mind, these clickbait-y predictions are part of driving the climate change denial phenomenon, since sensationalistic predictions don't often come true.

Why not, instead, focus less on climate change and focus more on environmental improvements that we can make that will make a daily difference in people's lives and have some sort of effect on climate change too? Like, I don't know, the awful air quality in southwestern and central CT that has everything to do with blowover from excess exhaust emissions in the New York City metro region? Get cars off the road with better transit, etc., and you clean up the air—saving lives and I do not exaggerate—and lower our carbon output. Win—win, and perhaps something we can get even the climate change deniers behind.
Harvey Harvey
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

Scersk wrote
focus less on climate change and focus more on environmental improvements that we can make that will make a daily difference in people's lives and have some sort of effect on climate change too? ... Win—win, and perhaps something we can get even the climate change deniers behind.
This makes a lot of sense to me.

I think that if you are going to subsidize this stuff, you rig it so that a disproportionate percentage of the jobs go to coal country or areas where livelihoods depend on fossils fuel sales, to get buy in. People tend to be in favor of things that bring jobs to their town.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
campgottagopee campgottagopee
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

Harvey wrote
Scersk wrote
focus less on climate change and focus more on environmental improvements that we can make that will make a daily difference in people's lives and have some sort of effect on climate change too? ... Win—win, and perhaps something we can get even the climate change deniers behind.
This makes a lot of sense to me.

I think that if you are going to subsidize this stuff, you rig it so that a disproportionate percentage of the jobs go to coal country or areas where livelihoods depend on fossils fuel sales, to get buy in. People tend to be in favor of things that bring jobs to their town.
Concur Harv
Jobs in hometowns equal happy people
MC2 5678F589 MC2 5678F589
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Re: Climate Change: The End of NY's Ski Industry?

In reply to this post by Harvey
The article I linked to was pretty good. I wish you guys read it before you all started discussing what you thought it was about.

For instance:

.

The only part of the United States that has not warmed significantly since the late 1800s is the South, especially Mississippi and Alabama, where data in some cases shows modest cooling. Scientists have attributed this “warming hole” to atmospheric cycles driven by the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, along with particles of soot from smokestacks and tailpipes, which have damaging health effects but can block some of the sun’s intensity. Those types of pollutants were curtailed by environmental policies, while carbon dioxide remained unregulated for decades.
Also, the article does a good job of describing things that are actually happening now, rather than the model-based speculating that you guys all seem to assume they do.

Maybe the class discussion would be more productive if you students would read the assignment.
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