Long Range Forecasting Winter 2012-2013

Harvey44 wrote

It feels like there is a significant amount of unspoken pessimism among weather peeps.

Not entirely unspoken:

Is Winter Slipping Away?

Looking at accuweather month forecast for LP.  Starting on Feb 13 there are only two days where the forecast high is below freezing for the rest of Feb.

This is so depressing.  Warm days means no snow making and they will lay the snowmakers off by the end of Feb as is the custom.  I'm not ready to golf in March again this year.

Coach Z wrote

Looking at accuweather month forecast for LP.  Starting on Feb 13 there are only two days where the forecast high is below freezing for the rest of Feb.

This is so depressing.  Warm days means no snow making and they will lay the snowmakers off by the end of Feb as is the custom.  I'm not ready to golf in March again this year.

Don't know where you are getting your info, the source I use says that Indian Lake (which is usually about what Gore gets) only has most days below freezing for the high for the next 10 days with very cold temps at night and a few inches of snow every couple of days. No dumpers but still enough to help snowmaking. Looks like a good forecast for making snow.

Dan, LP is not Indian Lake when it comes to forecasting. I know Darrrin at ilsnow.com is usually spot on for that region but LP/WF is  a whole other creature. Actually WF is a whole nother creature compared to LP. Gore and Indian Lake area are far enough south that they seem to catch a lot more Lake effect, wish LP and WF could get the same.

I'd stayed away from posting GFS temp images for the last 7 days as they were quite unpleasant.

But is the blowtorch running short on fuel?

Two of my favorite words in a forecast are "bomogenisus" and the "benchmark."

From NWS Albany:

Long Term: Thursday through Monday

The gfs evolves a major negatively tilted trof in the east with bombogenisus off the eastern seaboard sat nt into sun...And a major storm. The track is hatteras to delmarva...Then 300 miles south of cape cod. This is farther south and east than the recent storm. The fca takes a glancing blow with lt snow only.

The ecmwf develops the system even further south and east...With a glancing blow confined to the far most se fca. The gem track is i-95 inside the benchmark and suggests a major snow event here. At this point the gem is the outlier. The gfs ensemble has 3 members with a significant event at alb...A few with a tenth or so qpf...And the rest are flat lines. Hpc has no pops west of alb for this event...And a track close to the gfs.

In this systems wake a full latitude 500hpa trof sets up along the east coast...And arctic high pressure plunges south from hudson bay canada. Strong caa will impact fca...For rest of efp...Temps will be 5-10 deg blo normal and short wvs and nw flow across grtlks will result in usual downwind lk response into fca with sct to more numerous -shsn w.

NAO going negative? One can hope.

A few days old, but hey it's been crazy:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/02/16/could-february-end-up-snowy-update-21613/

Looks like the winter that wasn't again! :(

gebbyfish wrote

Looks like the winter that wasn't again! :(

Winter hasn't been stellar, but not sure I agree with this!

GFS looks overblown (as usual), but it sees something coming out of that midwestern blizzard...



Bastardi is calling in another shot for Rhode Island.

looks like the Berks and Eastern Resorts will benefit

Darrin:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/02/21/just-like-last-winter-guess-again-update-22113/

Got to get my azz out of that "dire" thread:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/03/13/is-winter-smoked-update-31313/

Harvey44 wrote

Got to get my azz out of that "dire" thread: http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/03/13/is-winter-smoked-update-31313/

LIKE! Mad River Weather Blog is talking about similar stuff. I was watching the weather channel last night and they were discussing the radical difference between the GFS and Euro models for this event. GFS has slight snowfall with possible r**n and Euro has possible 12+.

This is pretty intense for late March in the East:



Also ... is somethin cookin?

The best March in years, at this rate , April will be sweet too..

The long term temp forecast looks like Whiteface will make the April 14 closing date.  

After that is looks like Golf season will be here with a whole week of 60's so I doubt the rumored extension to the weekend of 4/20 -21 is going to happen.

Coach Z wrote

The long term temp forecast looks like Whiteface will make the April 14 closing date.  

After that is looks like Golf season will be here with a whole week of 60's so I doubt the rumored extension to the weekend of 4/20 -21 is going to happen.

Double or nothing on the beer me and HPD are still waiting on that WF is open the weekend of 4/20!

I'm also still wating on a fall down on a poach beer owed from a host patroller...  

If WF isn't open April 20/21, they will have closed on the 14th with way more cover/skiable terrain than they had available on the last day last year, regardless of what the weather does between now and then.   Of course, last year that was March 20 something, and not April.  When you don't even make it to the end of March I suppose management is more motivated to provide skiing on any pathetic ribbon of white criss-crossed by streams than they are when the faithful have been given the opportunity to ski midwinter conditions into April.  I'm gonna throw in with Z, and say they take the opportunity to be open late into April.  Not like they haven't done it before.  There have been years past where the closing date was moved out.  Also, we were rocking the Slides on an April 20 not all that many years ago.  Is management any less committed to the foo.....er.....die hards who ski as late as possible now then they were 5 years ago?  We shall see.

Skidds wrote

  I'm gonna throw in with Z, and say they take the opportunity to be open late into April.  

Z is saying they close mid-april.  SJ is the one that says "late into April " (4/20).  I'm confused, when do you think they're gonna close?

I say 4/21.