NOAA WINTER OUTLOOK – La Nina is Back

http://unofficialnetworks.com/noaa-winter-outlook-la-nia-33520/


Here is what NOAA is saying about the possibility of another La Niña winter in 2011/12:

“Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011. However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011. Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month.”

I know this belongs in the weather thread... but I know I don't look at that during the summer.

I saw the unofficial networks post a few days ago. Would love to see some regional analysis.

Seems to me that with La Niña or the stronger El Nino somebody out west is going score big. Out west all you need is moisture, and elevation takes care of the rest. In the east scoreage is harder to come by.  I'm  no expert but I think a weak La Niña is supposed to give the east a good shot.

I'm missing Joe Bastardi's Long Range winter forecast that used to come out in July. Now that he's gone from Accuweather, he doesn't seem to be doing one, or I can't find it.

The 3 month T2M from NWS hasn't been looking great the last 8 weeks, but it could change:

here's my non scientific approach to long range predictions.

If you had a set records during the past season, you wouldn't repeat this season. The Sierra and Wasatch have had a couple of great years in a row. It's time for them to take the pipe..

that  leaves the NE on the fence.

In the past ten years or so, I seem to recall weak La Nina winters being favorable for my type of skiing habits but not favorable for the average Joe. A lot more big events, but a lot more mix events too. The polar opposite of this year's cold and wintery consistency without many major hits. Who knows what will happen but I am on board the La Nina train based on past experience. Though I suspect most skiers won't be. I remember 06-07 as one of my best seasons ever. But I know many that consider that year very bad. It certainly started off bad (excepting October... WOW), but man oh man it was Aces from January right through April.

Comon Jason - stand up and be counted. Let's hear your long term forecast!

riverc0il wrote

In the past ten years or so, I seem to recall weak La Nina winters being favorable for my type of skiing habits but not favorable for the average Joe. A lot more big events, but a lot more mix events too. The polar opposite of this year's cold and wintery consistency without many major hits. Who knows what will happen but I am on board the La Nina train based on past experience. Though I suspect most skiers won't be. I remember 06-07 as one of my best seasons ever. But I know many that consider that year very bad. It certainly started off bad (excepting October... WOW), but man oh man it was Aces from January right through April.

Hard to keep all the seasons straight but I think that 06-07 got a late start but was awesome from the Valentine's Day Storm (40") through the end. I remembered a warm Nov-Dec, cold Jan without too much snow and then gangbusters from Feb to the end. I THINK the Adks got a pretty good dump of fresh snow in mid-April.  IMO that season was at least as good as this past season.