Storm Speculation 1/23-1/25/17

snoloco wrote

As of now it looks like all snow for the Adirondacks and Greens and mixing in the Catskills.  Mountain Creek is in for a complete and total gully washer downpour with up to 2'' of r*in expected.

^^ 2 points for a big picture view.

That forecast is looking pretty Gorey.

I don't think anyone can say with certainty what is going to happen...Someone will get some snow,all will get a mix, some rain,some more snow, wind ..Just a shit show...

I predict a negative tilt with 50% certainty.



Darrin Harr calling for 4-8 with sleet in Indian Lake:

Central Adirondack Forecast for 1/23/17:

Monday: Cloudy. Highs in the 30s.

Monday Night: Snow and sleet arriving after 8PM, becoming heavy at times overnight. Lows 25-30.

Tuesday: Snow. Highs around 33. Total snow/sleet accumulation of 4-8 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Leftover clouds and a few spits of snow. Lows in the 20s.

 

JasonWx wrote

I don't think anyone can say with certainty what is going to happen...Someone will get some snow,all will get a mix, some rain,some more snow, wind ..Just a shit show...

Anomalous propagation,,,,, nebulous prognostication,,,,, alternative facts,,,,

Ah heck, just call it what it is, BS.

Looks like Whiteface will get the most out of this in the adk's

The experimental maps show widespread 6-8 or more across much of ski country in BGM, ALY and BVT.  Not sure why but much of BGM is in Winter Storm Watch, the rest mostly Winter Weather Advisory.

The GFS seems to put MRG and the Bush in the wheelhouse...

there is some upper level cold air to the west...
This is still a total shit show event...Lots of warm air aloft...Mid level Cold with marginal cold air at the surface..
recipe for a mixed event..

Local forecast for us is 8 to 12

http://flxweather.com/2017/01/23/finger-lakes-winter-storm-details-snow-map-timeline-expectations/

This is a hard one to read. I am thinking I wait and get up early and see what what has happened. If it looks good I'll head for the hills, if not I'll stay home and make some money. Looks like the whole week we will be getting a continuous light snow so maybe a little later in the week will be better. Who knows?

This looks a little benchmarkieish..

It's tough to know how much (or how little) snow you're going to get when you have no confidence in the various temperatures of the air column.  I'm pretty optimistic on this one for northern areas though.

BenedictGomez wrote

It's tough to know how much (or how little) snow you're going to get when you have no confidence in the various temperatures of the air column.  I'm pretty optimistic on this one for northern areas though.

I'm with you on this..If there was a booming high in quebec, this would be easy..
But with warm t5 ...Hard to tell..The cold air is so marginal..

Here in Minerva, it was rain/freezing rain all night with temp at 32. Changed over to snow within the past hour with about 3/4" accumulation so far.

Thanks Dan.

Whiteface reporting 2", Gore 2.5", Hunter 2-5, Windham "fresh snow" couldn't find a report for CNY.

Harvey wrote

Thanks Dan.

Whiteface reporting 2", Gore 2.5", Hunter 0, Windham "fresh snow" couldn't find a report for CNY.

People will start to realize you can't have a snow storm with out cold air...

They do have cold air.  Whiteface has temps in the mid 20's and is getting snow.  27 and freezing r*in in Potsdam.

They're also making snow as the temps are back to being cold enough.

.....in the right places.

There you go Jason, FIFY!  Placid/Whiteface, where it may be 23 degrees right now, most likely will get some mixing.  Hey, not a good enough storm to take a powder day, but if I was looking for a base building storm after a warmup this nice 3-5 inch smearing of cream cheese is certainly welcome.

snoloco wrote

They do have cold air.  Whiteface has temps in the mid 20's and is getting snow.  27 and freezing r*in in Potsdam.

They're also making snow as the temps are back to being cold enough.

sno you are clueless...