Storm Speculation: 2/20 - 2/21/11

After Thursday and Fridays warm up, the mountains will experience a hard and windy freeze on Saturday. Followed by a relatively weak system, that will be moving through Southern New York. How far south this system moves will determine how much snow the North Country will receive. As of this time it looks like a 2-5 inch snow fall followed by some cold temps and more high winds.

CONTENTS DELETED

Found this NWS ALY tidbit:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THIS SYSTEM NOT ONLY HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1000 MB...BUT HAS A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION STRONG ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY HAS MOST MEMBERS INDICATING AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH A QPF MEAN OF 0.48 INCH...BUT A LARGE RANGE IN QPF OF 0.01 TO 0.71 WITH A MEDIAN OF 0.60 INCH. 12Z GEFS PLUME HAS A MUCH
TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH A CLUSTERING JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH.

THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING STORMSO THE DURATION DURING WHICH THE HEAVIER SNOW CAN OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SEVERAL HOURS. STILL THE BULK OF THE FA CAN EXPECT A 3 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

I agree with Harv's post..4-6 is a good guess for the the mountains ..then a similar storm will effect the region next weekend. More on that later..