"Storm" Speculation Feb 25-26

Ok, not much of a storm.  However, a system coming through Saturday night will usher colder air back to the Northeast, and with it some mixed precip with snow on the back side.  Some forecasts showing measureable snow on the back side of the front, with possibly upwards of 4-6 inches in the high country summits through midday Sunday.  Thoughts from our resident weather weenies.....

using the GFS and taking it verbatim ...
Light rain all day Saturday followed by a gusty NW with some snow showers

Yeah, but "snow showers" so far this winter have been decent producers.  Anything would help after a light ncp followed by cold temps event!

still 5 days away..anything can happen

Yeah, wait and see.....expect the worst and hope to get lucky!  This season has been as good as it has because we've gotten a lot of lucky!

Not that it means anything this far out, but one forecast just changed the Sat pm to Sun am snow total from 4-6 to 10-12 for the high peaks of the Daks and Greens.  I think there is general agreement (as much as such a thing exists this far out) that there is likely to be 1 to 1.5 inches of QPF from Sat afternoon into the overnight, with very warm temps ahead of the front and temps dropping into the 20s when it passes.  Just a matter of how soon any changeover might occur, and when it happens at different elevations.

Winds look like they may be whipping on Saturday.

Spring skiing Saturday, powder skiing Sunday......?????

Sorry but I just don't see appreciable snow on the backside of this low..

Agreed, doesn't look that good.  Best hope, and it's a long shot, is that something of a 'snow at the summit/rain at the base' situation arises as the freezing level descends on the back side of the storm.

I've still got a forecast calling for measureable snow on the back side of this thing.  Sure, the timing of the cool down and amount are fluctuating, current accumulations on the higher end for Whiteface at 4800.....but they ain't letting it go!  It may not be likely, but I still like to see it in the forecast and dream.

Well, a few of the more mainstream forecasts are starting to call for light accumulations on the back of this mess, not that 1-3 of dust on crust Sunday is going to make things all that pleasant.  The forecast I've been watching, as unlikely as it may be, keeps waffling between the summits of Whiteface and Mansfield as to which will get more at elevation on the back side of this.  Currently says 6 for Whiteface and 16 for Mansfield.  Last night it was 12 for Whiteface and 6 for Mansfield.  Shut up Jason!  Since I couldn't pull off LCC this weekend a guy can dream.

I'm seriously considering heading north this weekend.  Saturday is looking partly sunny early and it will be a great spring skiing day until the rain arrives later afternoon.  If the summits do get measureable snow it could be a decent day Sunday.  Might be worth the gamble, and if they don't.....well, enough fun can be had Sat to make the trip worthwhile.

Problem is it looks like the winds will be a'howlin'!  I'm comfortable bringing the touring rigs and earning the turns at Whiteface if the lifts don't spin.  Can the same be done at Stowe without trouble?

I will not be silenced Mr Trump!!!

Iffin' I can't apply an executive gag order I'll just silence you with data points!

The forecasters at Plymouth State (Open Snow New England) are calling for a general 3-7" snowfall in the mountains on the back side of this front, with the usual caveats about the when, where, and how much upon changeover applying.

I'm seeing low clouds Saturday in fog/drizzle leading up to the frontal passage. Latest aviation forecasts for GFL (Glens Falls) and SLK (Saranac Lake) are supporting this as well.

I'm debating heading up at this point because while I'm sure skiing will be nice and soft and should be safe from rain until around 2 PM Saturday, not a big fan of skiing in fog/clouds. Going to be a last minute decision as the forecasts come out this afternoon.

Limited visibility can be a pain, but with the season quickly evaporating, both literally (warm weather) and figuratively (one weekend planned March, with challenges to planning other weekends as the outdoor soccer season approaches)....I'll take it.

What could be a bigger concern for lift served may help keep the low clouds moving.  That would be the winds.  They are expected to be gusty ahead of the front.  As I have two touring setups and my son wears the same size boot I could take this weekend to introduce him to touring if lifts are limited, but if we had to rely on lifts it would give me another reason to debate going this weekend.

Yeah wind could def be an issue also, even for tomorrow. They were saying winds potentially at 50 knots as low as around 2,000 feet tomorrow but have not seen it mentioned in the last few discussions. Still going to be gusty though