First week of January

Using the 0z GFS

The first week of January will feature tranquil but cold weather. With the chance of a weak Alberta Clipper on Friday and Saturday. As of now the system is quite dry, but should drop a few inch's of snow in the mountains. The good news, no warm weather for the next 10 days...

Using the 0z ECMWF

The two models agree on a tranquil week with a clipper towards weeks end. But the Euro is more verbose with the clipper. It takes a weak surface low off the NJ coast and blows it up into a major storm. Followed by another major Nor'easter the middle of next week...

At least the weather isn't boring...

Whiteface


Gore


Plattekill


just sayin.

You gotta love a surface low map that looks like this:



SOMETHINGS gotta happen.

Jason, suds...

I saw on the blog that Jason is standing by his call for 3-6 for the Adks.

Can you guys give us a little more?  The NWS Forecast discussion is confusing, but it does seem to leave the door open for measurable snow in the north country of NY.

These maps are outliers. Should they be discounted?


GFS 96 Hr Snowfall


HPC 5 Day Precip

I like 3-6 right now for the Gore area / SE dacks.  The models have been trending the area of best snows slowly north, I think they have the right idea.  Catskills look very good right now but I do think some good snow will make it as far north as Gore.

this is complicated forecast..there really isn't a dominate surface low. it is basically all  upper level dynamics..this  makes pin pointing the qpf very difficult..

It all depends on what the clipper does once it passes our area.  If it decides to bomb out just off the coast we could be in for a lot of fun this weekend...That would definitely be looking at the glass 3/4 full though.  I am looking forward to the initial couple inches on deserted slopes tomorrow...Then an epic powder day for Sat & Sun...Harv we need an emoticon with fingers crossed

here's the 12z 42hr NAM surface...Printed L's all over the place



far from a major event....

Whatever happens, looks like NY is definitely in the mix.

Jason told me not to get excited.



Sorry man, did my best.

http://www.nyskiblog.com/p/ny-weather.html

Yea, let's hope the infamous " Snow-not " hole doesn't strike again.

It's unreal. I moved here, exit 18, in 2001. The first few years there was deep snow on the ground  basically from early December until April. No bare ground at all. Now the last 3 or 4 winters there's been more and more bare ground to the point where it's more bare ground days than snow covered ground days. The ground here is bare now and has been that way for most of this season. I've received 2 inches of snow so far and it did last long before it melted.

I gotta admit I do not miss those prolonged periods of constant sub zero temps. Weeks and weeks of that stuff gets old real fast. 20-30 below, -5 for a high temp, winds howling....that crap is for the penguins and polar bears. I was seriously thinking about relocating again. Now we hardly get the sub zero temps.

It's weird. After you go thru a long period of sub zero temps and then it warms up to zero, you can go out with just a light jacket on. " Hey, it feels nice. Kinda warm! ". Hehehe.

Was the event last Friday a bonified Norlun Trough?

nope, just a plain old fashioned Nor'easter