Jan 19 2019 Possibilities

Me likey the looks of that!!!!^^^^

Why you gotta be such a tease, Harvey?!  Man, that would be sweet.....but I’m not sure we’re that lucky!

That will make for a fun ride from Saratoga Springs to Magic on Sunday morning!  Bring it!

JTG4eva! wrote

Why you gotta be such a tease, Harvey?!  Man, that would be sweet.....but I’m not sure we’re that lucky!

That's the same as the map before it except it extends 12 hours farther into the future.

When I see that I think it has to be 50/50 by now. Right?

Harvey wrote

When I see that I think it has to be 50/50 by now. Right?

It’s gotta be. The logic is flawless

I think we will have to wait till thur or friday to see what happens

If friday's storm doesn't behave as forecasted nor will the weekend's storm

Agreed, though if it does pan out I'll probably be getting a hotel room at Magic for Saturday night.

Magic, Gore, and Whiteface are all forecasting decent amounts of snow, so for the last two it should hopefully get a bunch of terrain open.

NWS ALY LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

There is the potential for a major winter storm to impact our forecast area over the weekend.  The period kicks off with low pressure over the Arklatex region quickly moving into the mid- Atlantic region and northeast.  This first system looks like it could give us a quick 2 or 3 inches of snow Thursday night.

Behind the departing-for-the-Atlantic-Provinces system, high pressure centered over southern Canada will ridge in down the mid-Atlantic coast to provide a brief period of dry conditions Friday night before the more substantial system moves in.  

This one is expected to develop as a wave off the Colorado Rockies, gaining strength on its way to Arkansas, then quickly tracking toward the Mid-Atlantic region.  Today...the ECMWF and GFS models are both in very good agreement that this will be a high-impact event.  Right now the focus is on Saturday night and Sunday.

The real cold arrives Sunday night, with lows ranging from around 10 degrees below zero to around 10 above.

Some of this mornings guidance has a wintry mix pushing as far north as Albany and the VT border.  In conjunction, forecasted snow totals in the Daks are up a bit from yesterday.  That seems like a good trend, so this storm doesn’t get pushed down into the Mid-Atlantic.  Just don’t need that freezing line to move any further north.

Still early I know, but fingers crossed.  Man, a foot and a half or two at WF on Sunday would be sweet....

looks good for the daks and crap for the cats..as of today..i'm sure there will be a different story tomorrow

No need to look at forecast. With my son ADmiKe out of the mix for this weekend and next, it will certainly DUMP!
I'm sure he'll be chiming in shortly (in disgust, as he won't be at WF 'till the end of the month). Ouch.

CNY?

hard to tell..still to early

My biggest concern is not a mix but the storm trending SE.  Being in the bullseye 5 days out is never good.  The Euro spits out 25 to 35 inches for the Adriondacks... That's probably not going to happen.  The trend this year has been suppression and I think the jackpot zone moves south in the coming days.  Hopefully I'm wrong

Dang. I will watch for it.

Dumping SE of the Adirondacks works for me, specifically if the bullseye is Londonderry VT.

I hate doing this because snow maps in general are useless but for the eye candy, 12z Euro snowmap.  Enchanced with ratios.

NE you ok with what I did there?^^

Was trying to embed had problems on my phone not on computer