Jan thaw coming?

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Been watching the long term temp trends.  This map has been sloooowly looking "better" with the east coming into a more normal range in the 10 day...



EDIT: from Accuweather...

Lionel checks in:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/january-thaw/

BOOM!

bracing in "The Big Wink" w/ our fingers+   we can survive nicely a mild thaw.  please god, no heavy rain.....  

As far as thaws go , this one isn't that bad..No tropical temps and monsoon rains..After next tues/wed or so..it turns COLD!!!! As far as snow goes, time will tell, usually when we are so deep in the arctic air we tend to be dry..

Its much colder now than they forecast - got fingers crossed that it won't be too bad.  If the forecast plays out Saturday might be pretty nice.  Sunday is another matter and my son has his first race of the season in the rain.

Currently r*ining in the Glens Falls Area, but it's a cold, chunky kinda r*in.

freezing rain up here by Whiteface - be super careful driving tonight if you are coming up this way

It is so warm out this morning - hopefully we don't get a 50 degree gully washer

THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...

.TODAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 25 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO
60 MPH.

This now looks like a extensive melt, more than was anticipated. Gore will need to do a lot of snowmaking when teh temps change late next week to get things back on track for MLK and Pres week. The question is - will they make the investment?

Well, on the bright side, it looks like Whiteface should have four full days to repair the damage done yesterday, today & tomorrow, to prepare for the holiday weekend. Hopefully they'll work some winter magic!



To quote Monty Python, "always look on the bright side of life"!

Totally agree , the alternative is scary and a huge waste of time and emotion. It is what it is and whatever it is will GET better !

DackerDan wrote

This now looks like a extensive melt, more than was anticipated. Gore will need to do a lot of snowmaking when teh temps change late next week to get things back on track for MLK and Pres week. The question is - will they make the investment?

Really?  I was thinking the exact opposite compared to the length of duration of the warm temps and the possible highs that could have been realized from the models.  

 I was happy to see just a few days in the 40s with not all that much rain compared to what could have been.  Plus, it's going to turn cold for a LONG duration starting on Monday evening, and there may even be a little bit of refreshener snow later in the week.

Only one year has Vermont not had a January thaw, 1977 the year I was born, this was a very light thaw, no green grass at most hills this is fine.

BenedictGomez wrote

Really?  I was thinking the exact opposite compared to the length of duration of the warm temps and the possible highs that could have been realized from the models.  

 I was happy to see just a few days in the 40s with not all that much rain compared to what could have been.  Plus, it's going to turn cold for a LONG duration starting on Monday evening, and there may even be a little bit of refreshener snow later in the week.

Yes - really. Last week it looked like temps during the day would stay below 40, but yesterday it got in the mid 40s with fog and warm wind. Although the sking was great spring conditions - a lot of snow was lost, one only needed to look at the steadily opening brown spots on Top Ridge as the day went on yesterday. Today started with a fog and temps above 30, fog eats snow. Although we will get cold again, there will need to be a lot of snow making to recover from this by next weekend which is MLK weekend - an important holiday for revenue on the mountain. The amount of snow predicted is trace, we will need inches, particularly in the woods where it will set up like concrete when it turns cold. I have no doubt conditions will improve as we get back into the freeze zone, but it appears as things will be rough for a stretch.

Yes - it could be worse but I was hoping for better.

DackerDan wrote

Yes - really.......- a lot of snow was lost, one only needed to look at the steadily opening brown spots on Top Ridge as the day went on yesterday...........The amount of snow predicted is trace, we will need inches, particularly in the woods where it will set up like concrete when it turns cold. ...........Yes - it could be worse but I was hoping for better.

Wow, didnt realize it was that bad.   At least a silver lining is that by tomorrow around 10am we should hit 32 again.   On the "trace" bit though, there is a bit of hope even if it's just a few inches in total.  

Honestly, I'm more worried about what the wind will look like for MLK weekend given the temperature could be 0 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit without considering wind.

They certainly lost a lot of snow but there is still a lot left. Many trails just need to be touched up to cover the bare spots. But I would guess topridge and sagamore won't make it for mlk.

Tom

very warm and breezy today, i would imagine all natural trails will be shot.
cold air makes a slow return, bulk of the very cold air wouldn't arrive until later this week..unfortunately still no snow insight.