Jan thaw coming?

How warm is it going to be next week?  Accuweather has Jan 9-13 pretty warm and mixed precip.  Is this going to get ugly?  Why is it that January always has these damm thaws?

late next week may hit 40 degrees for few days, that's about it as i see accuweather forecast, nothing to be worried about imo

can't blame global warming on these things I've seen this for 25 years now and I can't ever recall not having a Jan thaw.  Doesn't mean that they don't suck though  

It's still too early to worry about. The forecast I am looking at says a high of 35 for a couple of days next week - that's hardly a Jan thaw.

Coach Z wrote

 I've seen this for 25 years now and I can't ever recall not having a Jan thaw.

Not quite true. The amazing 2000-01 season did not have a thaw.

Two seasons ago (2010-2011) it was pretty cold December - February. I don't remember a big thaw during that period.  That year it snowed at Gore on these January dates:

Jan 3
Jan 4
Jan 5
Jan 6
Jan 7
Jan 8
Jan 9
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 15
Jan 16
Jan 18
Jan 19
Jan 21
Jan 22
Jan 25
Jan 29

I'm sure there was probably some NCP in there but as I recall it was pretty consistently cold.

The NOAA/NWS has been showing a dramatic warmup next week for several days.  My guess is it is real.



Worrying about it is pointless.  Just the fact that it has happened such a high percentage of the time, is proof that it is a fact of life in the east, AGW or not.

90% of forum members live in the east. Why is that? There must be a reason.

Harvey44 wrote

90% of forum members live in the east. Why is that? There must be a reason.

Stupidity?  The snow and mountains are just far superior out west.  

Harvey44 wrote

90% of forum members live in the east. Why is that? There must be a reason.

You started this out of the Adirondacks, it's call NYSkiblog, what did you expect.  

Anyway - I live here because my job is here, I moved here from Virginia, I think that was a step up (except for taxes, but that's a whole different topic). My wife won't move too far from the kids but I am hoping for a winter venue change after retirement, SLC is looking quite nice.

Josh from Mad river blog saids warm coming but positive news is snow is the west so great time to go to Slc, or just wait it out ,hopefully cold returns in  couple weeks or sooner

I think the warm up will be short lived..Same old story almost every year..

Jamesdeluxe wrote

Coach Z wrote

 I've seen this for 25 years now and I can't ever recall not having a Jan thaw.

Not quite true. The amazing 2000-01 season did not have a thaw.

yes it did have a thaw - it happened in Mid Feb.  Poured buckets of rain at Whiteface Feb 10-11 2001.  Then it starting snowing and didn't stop unitl May.

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/01/06/january-thaw-then-where-to-we-go-from-here-update-010613/

Harvey44 wrote

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/01/06/january-thaw-then-where-to-we-go-from-here-update-010613/

I liked the last line "Keep the faith! We’re already well ahead of last winter. "

Indian Lake forecast still shows temps dropping below freezing overnight and highs not quite to 40. This should help to keep the snow pack but when the cold returns we will need snow to be able to get back into the woods - it could be heinous until that happens. No rain in the forecast so lets just grit our teeth and hope for the best.

Thaw/freeze cycles are part of East Coast skiing, it sure was nice the last couple weeks with snow and zero ice. I'll take a few bare spots here and there over a base of ice any day. Imagine a Winter that never got above freezing...heaven. Hey, I can dream, can't I?

Long term late Jan looks very stormy with the possibility of an "arctic intrusion" I am optimistic.

i just like saying "arctic intrusion"

The Jan thaw is here.

Sunday, Jan 6, 2013 - yesterday, Tuxedo Ridge, NY, 50 degrees at 1:30pm

I don't start to worry until I hear Jason use the words "gully washer."

Adk Jeff wrote

I don't start to worry until I hear Jason use the words "gully washer."

+1