Jay, Burke and EB-5

ml242 wrote

Between you, Coach, and Sno it's like the golden triangle of Gloom, Doom, and Groom sometimes.

POTD.

ml242 wrote

Sold at pennies on the dollar would mean more money leftover from some deep-pocketed chain to maintain more than adaquetely.

Between you, Coach, and Sno it's like the golden triangle of Gloom, Doom, and Groom sometimes.

Oh come on - Yes, my  vision is not one of Jay peak with Bogner ski suits and Sorrell booties - bit one of more classic sustainable NE skiing. I don't call that Gloom and Doom. Maybe Sno would like more Groom though

Jay will always have a decent future due to the snow.  I hope they do get bought by someone that will actually care about the skiing product.  Everyone talks like Bill Stengler walks on water but show me one single thing he did to improve the on snow product.

The problem is the overhead and over built bed base which is going to never be profitable.  Ptex is right buying one if those newer condos in a coule of years maybe a steal.  To get the bed base undercontrol whom ever owns Jay is going to want to sell all the non hotel units off and try to get them out of the rental market so they can profitably operate the hotels.

 Burke on the other hand is totally and royally F-ed.

Coach Z wrote

The problem is the overhead and over built bed base which is going to never be profitable.  Ptex is right buying one if those newer condos in a coule of years maybe a steal.  To get the bed base undercontrol whom ever owns Jay is going to want to sell all the non hotel units off and try to get them out of the rental market so they can profitably operate the hotels.

Jay has a fine future ahead.  It is two hours from 4 million people.

Meanwhile, at Burke, the Q is gone (in more ways than one):

http://vtdigger.org/2016/04/30/burke-now-in-full-control-of-sec-receiver/

http://vtdigger.org/2016/04/30/investor-says-stenger-cut-him-a-special-deal/

noip wrote

Coach Z wrote

The problem is the overhead and over built bed base which is going to never be profitable.  Ptex is right buying one if those newer condos in a coule of years maybe a steal.  To get the bed base undercontrol whom ever owns Jay is going to want to sell all the non hotel units off and try to get them out of the rental market so they can profitably operate the hotels.

Jay has a fine future ahead.  It is two hours from 4 million people.

Exactly.  So why do they need that huge bed base they built as most Montrealers day trip to Jay.  They should have spent some of the fraud loot on mt improvements instead of overbuilding the bed base.  You can not run a profitable lodging biz when your occupancy rate is going to be less than 20% for 7 months of the year.  Empty rooms are a boat anchor on profitability. Note the article above saying Burke is going to not operate the hotel in he off ski season as very unprofitable.  Those eb5 jobs were supposed to be year round.  These crooks over build to line thier pckets and now these resorts are stuck with way too much lodging.  It will make Jay much less attractive for a buyer.

I suppose you mean occupancy rate instead of vacancy rate.  Crossing a border adds travel time and it might not be easy for some to day trip Jay Peak.

Yep got the rates mixed up

Jay has always sold lift tickets at par for Canadians.  They only allow half of a lodging package paid at par which would pretty much cover the lift ticket portion.  Most of their lodging customers are from the US but their day ticket biz is well over 50% Canadian.  There just are not that many US day skiers within driving distance for a day trip.  Their VT market is covered by a good deal of pass holders and they are part of a college season pass program sold to UVM students.

The way I read articles, only Burke is for sale.  Am I missing something about Jay's status?  Sounds like the Jay hotel is profitable and will be open for summer/fall operations.
'

Jay Peak and the recent real estate development sounds a little bit like the mountain village in Telluride. That was a ridiculously overzealous project where I believe most of the properties have gone bankrupt. The place is a ghost town for the majority of the year.

marznc wrote

The way I read articles, only Burke is for sale.  Am I missing something about Jay's status?  Sounds like the Jay hotel is profitable and will be open for summer/fall operations.
'

Open yes at least on Tramside.  I think they close the stateside hotel.  Profitable no.

Both they are looking for buyers for.

Found where I read that the Jay hotels were profitable.

http://vtdigger.org/2016/04/27/goldberg-obtains-funds-to-keep-jay-peak-going/

In remarks to the press on Wednesday, just two days after he told the court there wasn’t enough money to keep Jay Peak going and that Burke could “go dark,” Goldberg said he was 99.9 percent sure that Jay Peak will remain open because the hotels at the resort are profitable, and he now has enough money to fund operations and pay employees through the lean summer and fall months. Goldberg told reporters he has obtained $6 million in funds to cover operations through the summer and fall. The money comes from bank accounts formerly held by Quiros.

That statement is in sharp contrast to his depiction of resort finances on Monday.

Profits, he said, were overstated by Quiros, and his partner, Bill Stenger, who estimated that Jay Peak made $12 million to $13 million a year. Actual profits have been between $1.6 million and $3 million. A recent appraisal of the property pegged the value at roughly $100 million, significantly less than the $282 million investors contributed to the suite of six projects at the Jay Peak resort. Quiros originally purchased the resort for $20 million.

Update:http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=475Looks like Stenger is officially out of trouble but they still have Q in their sights

a $100k salary plus a condo and Audi seems like a pretty good deal for a guy that probably should be wearing an orange jumpsuit

I read somewhere that they are trying to sell Burke and Jay separately not as a package deal.  Vail just bought Whistler so they might be tight on funds so I would put Tremblant's owner (interest I think) as the prime candidate to buy Jay.  More of their business comes from Canada than the US I read so it would make perfect sense.  A combo pass from Montrealers would be a hit.

Coach Z wrote

a $100k salary plus a condo and Audi seems like a pretty good deal for a guy that probably should be wearing an orange jumpsuit

I read somewhere that they are trying to sell Burke and Jay separately not as a package deal.  Vail just bought Whistler so they might be tight on funds so I would put Tremblant's owner (interest I think) as the prime candidate to buy Jay.  More of their business comes from Canada than the US I read so it would make perfect sense.  A combo pass from Montrealers would be a hit.

Intrawest owns Tremblant.  I could definitely see them buying Jay.  Instead of trying to crush the competition, bankroll it.

snoloco wrote

Intrawest owns Tremblant.  I could definitely see them buying Jay.  Instead of trying to crush the competition, bankroll it.

Maybe. Ear to the ground says that all Intrawest properties in the east are for sale including T.

Maybe MSS would want it back though, since they sold it to Stegner in the mid-aughts. But I think the asking price will be way too high and they are super focused on the 15 corridor north of MTL anyway.

Coach Z wrote

a $100k salary plus a condo and Audi seems like a pretty good deal for a guy that probably should be wearing an orange jumpsuit

Yeah, it's shocking that I just read that no criminal charges have been filed. I mean, wait, what? There must be so much dirt that would be brought out on the evidence table involving Leahy and Sanders and god knows who, that they just want to bury this crap as quietly as possible. Plus, and this is ok in my book, they don't want some rusting hulk of an abandoned ski area, unused, in a depressed region of a very poor state, so, they're making some sort of lemonade here. Better than nothin.

Well I almost predicted it.

Stunning.

What about Q?

Maybe the Feds are getting Bill to roll on Q