Long Range Forecasting Winter 2012-2013

Cold start to winter...

Good stuff from Darrin:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/01/10/winter-has-plenty-left-in-the-tank-looking-beyond-the-thaw-update-011013/

From New England Weather Works:

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST YET

Watching the potential for a significant coastal storm, this is in the long range. This is just a heads up and this is the storm on the 20th we were talking about last week.

this is from the 0z GFS for the 20th

there ain't no coastal

now the Euro is toying with us..still long way off

I would like a storm on the 20th please

Looks like 2 clippers this weekend for NNY with 3-5" total for WF and Gore over those 2 events? Should be a nice refresher for the MLK weekend.

-skisheep

Darrin is out with an outlook...

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/01/19/brrrr-get-ready-for-the-deep-freeze-update-11913/

Potential for Friday as per Darrin:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/01/20/friday-snow-event-update-12013/

I like the shape of this cold air in the 8-14:

 

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70s Gore Kid wrote

NOAA just issued its long range forecast.

The good:  February looks like a great month to get those turns, with longer days, and average to below average temps.

The bad:  March looks like another warm one:  don't plan on skiing well in April this year (again).

I've only been monitoring NOAA's long-range winter forecasts for 4 years now, but they're generally so awful that a monkey throwing darts or that World Cup Octopus would have generally fared better during that time-frame.

 I just dont take man's ability to predict the weather beyond 10 days seriously.

In other words, I plan on having a great time skiing in April.

BenedictGomez wrote

 I just dont take man's ability to predict the weather beyond 10 days seriously.

In other words, I plan on having a great time skiing in April.

10 days is quite generous, my threshold is 72 hours. I too plan to be skiing in April.

This just flopped back to all cold.



Also remember a little warmer than average at this time of year, is still reasonably cold.

That map above is significantly uglier now.  Jason has been sooo good holding his tongue, but J I want to hear it.

Lionel on the other hand isn't really talking warmth in the next 5-7:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/pattern-persistance-means-more-meh/

I'm trying not to pay too much attention to long term forecasts, but both Lionel and The Single Chair weather blog seem to be trying to apply positive spin to a situation that may break pretty bad in a couple of weeks. It sounds like they too want to say something, but are holding back for now so as not to crush anyone's spirits. Not good.

Lets just say that there is nothing to get excited about..Nothing to jump off a cliff either.

Resorts and trails that depend on natural snow might be done for..

mattchuck2 wrote

I'm trying not to pay too much attention to long term forecasts, but both Lionel and The Single Chair weather blog seem to be trying to apply positive spin to a situation that may break pretty bad in a couple of weeks.

That Single Chair blog is nearly always snowptimistic.  Especially around the holidays and times that matter IMO.

There is something interesting going on I agree.  It feels like there is a significant amount of unspoken pessimism among weather peeps.

Harv, it's not hard to be pessimistic when the record high of 45 was broken on Wednesday with a new record high of 57 at Burlington!  Didn't use snowblower once all of January. Oh well, at least we had a great Christmas week.