This report is effective 4pm Monday, January 2, 2012
WOW - What a day we had today! Lake effect snow all day with an accumulation of 10" so far and it's still snowing. Snow is forecast through the night.
Snow Ridge will be closed on Tuesday, but will be open on Wednesday, from 10am to 4pm with 3 lifts serving 8 plus trails. We will be skiing and riding on a base of 8" to 34" with powder and machine groomed surface.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH WILL KEEP A
SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH LAKE SNOWS FOLLOWED BY
A MIDWEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE BANDS LOCATED
ACROSS THE FAVORED LAKE BELTS EAST OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NY UNDER A 280 TO 290
DEGREE STEERING FLOW. A BOOST IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WILL
BECOME PRESENT MONDAY EVENING FOR LAKE SNOWS TO FEED ON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A NICE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE
FOR JAMESTOWN WITH FAVORABLE OMEGA LIFT LINING UP WELL WITH THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION. ADDITIONALLY 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C WILL CONTINUE
FAVORABLE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH INVERSION LEVELS RUNNING
AROUND 7KFT. A WEAK CLIPPER DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL HELP BOOST LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER
BUT ONCE THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO EASTERN PA IT WILL DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD VEERING WINDS TO NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
BAND/BANDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND FALLING APART AS INVERSION
LEVELS CRASH BELOW 5KFT. A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TODAY
THROUGH 06Z TUES TO COVER FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL OCCUR BUT DURATION WILL
BE A BIT LONGER AND WITH HIGHER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AS OBSERVED ON NAM BUFKIT PROFILES FOR
SYRACUSE. THE LAKE BAND HERE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. THE 12Z RGEM MODEL SHOWS THIS BAND
WELL IN ITS QPF FIELDS WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP ELEVATED SNOW RATES DURING THE EVENING.
AS WINDS IN THIS REGION VEER TO NORTHERLY LATER MONDAY NIGHT THE
BAND WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TRANSITIONING INTO SOME
WEAKER MULTIBANDS WHILE FALLING APART. LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND MIDDAY TUESDAY
FOR OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES COVERING FOR LAKE SNOWS HERE.
GIVEN THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RADAR RETURNS AND THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL SITUATED WELL TO THE NORTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 7AM WED MORNING.
I drove by last week and actually took a picture (too much work to get it on here now) probably ten inches and maybe ten tracks at 11am. They had one strip down the face that was groomed I used to ski Snow Ridge all the time in college and left part of my ACL there at the end of the last millennium on a nostalgia trip with my family