Storm Speculation: 1/10/16

ALY LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON 00Z GFS AND 00Z/EURO USING TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY PRODUCES A MIXED BAG. INITIALLY STARTING AS SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...TO MOSTLY RAIN BY LATER SATURDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE BY LATER SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BUT MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT 00Z/GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF 00Z/EURO WITH TRACK OF SURFACE WAVE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES FURTHER EAST IN THE 00Z/GFS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR SUNDAY BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NORTH NORTHEASTWARD. 00Z/EURO WOULD TRACK THE LOW WEST OF INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE 00Z/GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. QUITE A SPREAD.

Have not seen the euro but GFS has been all over the place for this coming weekend. It should start to catch on tomorrow... 3 days out seems to be it's MO these days.

It's still early, but Mountain-Forecast isn't currently looking at much from this weekend's systems.  The weaker one Friday night they have putting down an inch or two, with nothing to speak of (especially since I don't like NCP talk this time of year, even if minor) on Sunday.  Plenty of time for that to change....

All freezing r*in at Hunter.  Hopefully this thing dissolves.

As of now this is a total non event..maybe a little light snizzle..

That's good cause they are calling for all rain here. Def not what we needed right now.

Yea if I had waited one more model run as I promised to do in the other thread, I would have seen the schizzle fizzle.

Rebecca seems confident about an event on Monday and Tuesday.

With all do respect ..the maps show zilch for monday and tuesday

This was the image she posted.

Looks like all r*in.

That's the Canadian Model..Step bellow the GFS..And the GFS is no bargain...

As luck would have it the GFS is juicing up Sat night/Sunday event.. It looks real wet

JasonWx wrote

That's the Canadian Model..Step bellow the GFS..And the GFS is no bargain...

As luck would have it the GFS is juicing up Sat night/Sunday event.. It looks real wet

I agree, what a shitty winter. Right when things were getting good.

Several forecasts (GFS, NWS, Mountain-Forecast) coming in line, with anywhere from of an inch (north) to two inches (south) of QPF for the 'Dacks Sunday into Monday.  Question is temps.  Where will the freezing line be?  Could Whiteface get r*in base with snow higher up?  Will Gore get enough cold air to get snow instead of r*in at the higher elevations?  Sorry Cats, looks like a gully washer with upwards of three inches of NCP?

GEM has a bit more of an easterly track, which could improve the temperature profile for the white stuff, maybe.

Fasten your seat belts.  Does make me think of one of the Jay videos from 2012 that's in the 'EC Western Skiing' thread.  Terrible early season, storm that was supposed to rain copious amounts, only to have it change to snow and puke for days.  A guy can dream......

Any chance the colder air could come in early?  It's out there.  The Vikings game Sunday is going to be frigid.  That's coming across, with temps turning colder in Upstate NY on Monday night.  Super wishful thinking?!?!

Of course if the cold got in early it would probably push the QPF south, reminiscent of last year.....

There will some cold air in place early Saturday. But that gets pushed out before the bulk of the qpf arrives.
Elevation will not help. The flow at 850 and 500 goes around to due south..The cold air comes back in after the damage is done..
Just one of those years..At least for the time being..

Ugh...  


Josh Fox  @SingleChairWx  

Some light snow Saturday but rain Sunday throughout VT and it might be heavy. Not what I wanted to see at all

i hadn't even read josh's blog...that boy is usually optimistic..he's had enough too

When the Euro went left and the GFS went right my heart sank...Euro is pretty accurate...I haven't looked too far out but I did hear Al Roker say there is a potential for a Polar vortex end of next week.  In 2007 we didn't get winter until after the big freezing rain storm on MLK Day.  3 huge storms followed and we had a long spring season

http://www.ilsnow.com/2016/01/06/one-more-hurt/

Harvey wrote

http://www.ilsnow.com/2016/01/06/one-more-hurt/

So we should assume that the light we see at the end of the tunnel is good and ignore the rumbling and whistle blowing sounds we hear?