Storm Speculation: 1/16/16

Jason or any other weather geeks...

Several sources saying this will go out to sea, others calling for the Lake Runner to dominate and deliver mud. NWS has a 70% chance of snow for Saturday.  In my experience 70% 3 days out from NWS is usually pretty solid?

Input welcome.

Primary low goes to the lakes
Secondary will form off the Virgina Capes and go out to sea....As of now a total non event for everyone...
That said I still don't trust the models...

Probably just typical Weather Channel schlock to generate clicks......but they are talking about the possibility the coastal low could bomb, resulting in a full on Nor'Easter.

NWS seems to be moving to a slightly warmer solution with the coastal going way out to sea (something about "bombogenis for the fish") and  the lake runner dominating our weather. Still looks to be net positive at this moment.

Bueller? (Jason)

This is really a non event still..Low off the coast bombs out at 50North..
There will be a period of light snow saturday and sunday..maybe a few inches..

JasonWx wrote

This is really a non event still...maybe a few inches..

This season a few inches IS an event!  :)

I hear ya..

Seeing forecasts for a mix on Sat (snow, sleet, r*in....changing back to snow) with warm air aloft, meaning elevation won't help....

JTG4eva! wrote

Seeing forecasts for a mix on Sat (snow, sleet, r*in....changing back to snow) with warm air aloft, meaning elevation won't help....

yea, everyone is predicting more warm air now. just once I would like to see a forecast ever improve. it only ever goes from snow -> rain with higher temps.

ok, make that every time.

this is bullshit!

calling for rain here on saturday

looks like another day of working on my kitchen

This is my take..I think the cats will mix with a little rain, but might remain all snow..
I still think the Adk's should be ok. As of now I'm thinking 2-4 for the Daks..Wouldn't fall off my chair if someone came in with 3-5..
it also depends on how warm we get on friday..I know i'm talking out of both sides of my ass, but it's not a cut and dry forecast

Still need til Friday morning to really pin it down..

peace  and love

Mountain-Forecast agrees with you, showing 3-5 at Whiteface, a little less at Gore, with the bulk on Sunday.  The Sunday parts a bit of an outlier....

Here kitty kitty kitty. NWS forecast just got a week bit colder and the track of the coastal came a wee bit west.

Late tonight into tomorrow???  Most forecasts have a mix or NCP for the Dacks.  Even with warm aid advection it looks like temps will vary by elevation.  Do we get lucky at the hills?  Probably not completely.

Mountain-Forecast is sticking to their guns for snow in the Dacks Sun night into Monday, 4-6 inches.  Let's hope that pans out!

The point forecast is fluctuating every four hours it seems.  RIght now it's calling for sleet, then snow.  Supposed to start soon, we'll see how noisey it is.

Point forecast jumped again. Snow and sleet before 6am.

Here's the ALY Advisory:


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN NEW YORK FROM KINGSTON NORTHWARD...AS WELL
  AS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH MIXED WITH SLEET IN VALLEY
  LOCATIONS...1-4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
  NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...MAINLY OVER THE
  HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
  SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
  MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AS UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BE VERY
  SLIPPERY FOR BOTH DRIVING AND WALKING.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

Surprised that we haven't seen much of anything overnight, but the radar backs it up. Maybe a good thing.

Just started snowing lightly here in North River.

It certainly isn't blower, or even silent, but it is snowing at 1900.

Squat here in Placid for the overnight.....

Woke up to rain on the roof. Put my head down and woke up 30 mins later now snowing at a good clip. Not much accumulation expected in the Cats.