Storm Speculation: 1/19/15

Maybe to early for this but this just showed up in the 120 and 144 hr and got my attention...



...with this by NWS:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A MAINLY SNOW
EVENT...THE ECMWF A MAINLY RAIN EVENT GOING OVER TO SNOW TOWARDS THE
END OF THE EVENT AND THE GGEM HAVING A COMPLETE MISS FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY AGREEMENT
SEEMS TO BE THAT MODELS TRACK AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST US ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

Was already planning 2 days in nvt based off this for tues and wed.

Storm would be sunday night into monday...models are still all over the map with this from mostly rain (last nights euro), to maybe a few inches (gfs) to nothing at all (last nights canadian).

6z gfs has zilch too

Euro looks on its own and off its rocker, I expect nothing.

Euro jumped east, threat is dead for now.

Go to Sugarbush. They are getting 4ft

http://www.snowforecast.com/component/content/article/17-resorts/4848-sugarbush-resort

SNOW POTENTIAL We are expecting 45 to 49 inches of snowfall (114 to 124cm)


que?

skimore wrote

Go to Sugarbush. They are getting 4ft

http://www.snowforecast.com/component/content/article/17-resorts/4848-sugarbush-resort

Taking in a consensus from the local TV news, single chair weather, and the NWS, I think we have a decent shot of skiing some freshies on Monday.  The question is will it be NY, VT, NH or ME.  I'm going on a limb and predicting 6" at Gore and 12" at the Mansfield stake by the end of skiing on Monday.

So, rain for NY.

Looks like a nice storm for Mount Washington, though.

I'm thinking NY has a decent shot at snow, WF, Gore, Plattekill.  Mixing in the Cats?  

That storm track... never really saw a one and done low on that map.

If you believe what the GFS is telling you. It is a Maine and E New Hampshire event..As of now zero for NY or VT..
Still 72hrs away..

So that would make it seem that rain in NY is less likely then right? If it goes east.

As of "now" lots of model flip flopping..NY will be high and dry..

Why be pessimistic, lets go with the NWS Albany: "GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA"

I'm giving up. Long range forcasts aren't looking promising for a snowy winter.

I quit- and blame it on the karma of everyone's negative comments about PA and Sno

I don't think you should be pessimistic.  We are actually just above average in terms of snowpack at Mt. Mansfield, just be patient, it is still early.  Take a look at this graph:

http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=depths.php

The latest run still keeps it a Eastern New England event...
Could be a lot worse, at least it isn't going to our left..Cold and dry is million times better then warm and wet..