Storm Speculation: 12/19/10

Just a quick update..

I noticed that the news is starting to talk about the possibility for a Sunday/Monday event.
As of now this system appears to be staying off the coast, still there has been a lot of model inconsistencies. At this time I'm not comfortable in making a forecast..

Hopefully tonight I will have a clearer picture..

Just when an OTS was looking like a good possibility...the 0z Euro brings the storm back and todays 12z GFS and GGEM and right in the slot.  The storm looks to have slowed down and small differences in a few key pieces are providing very different results.

the 0z ECWMF was a surprise
i would like to see everything slow down a little more, causing the trough to sharpen up a bit.
well the 12 euro will be out around 4 , should be interesting..

12z EURO moves WEST of last night, i havent seen a QPF map but this is trending in a very good direction.

do you have 12z the 16th? ecwmf
the site i use doesn't give up till around 4

Yes:

I'm no weather expert, but it seems to me that lots of tight little circles around the eastern end of Long Island is usually a good thing. In winter at least.

Nice weather stoke NorEaster27!

Thanks!!!

This should only verify..It will be a party for everyone!!!!

:)

Jason do you know about www.americanwx.com?  Very active weather discussion with some great info.  I will do my best to post info on here also as it relates to the Mountains.  12z Euro is looking pretty good for Gore and Whiteface, the trend from last night is clearly west and the EURO is very good in this range.  Still far out...but the possibility is looking better than yesterday.

I do agree with the trend. But I am still leery of jumping in with both feet on this one..The models have burnt me ,this far out before..

What I dread the most is the Media. The Weather Channel is going to be all over this, whipping everyone into a frenzy..

"12z Euro" ?

12z refers to the time of day that the model is run..12z stands for 12:00 zulu time. 7am EST..

EURO is the the ECMWF model..
main weather models are GFS, NAM, ECMWF,UKMET,GEM and sometimes the NOGAPS

WOW!!! My head hurts trying to figure all these "weather terms" out, but from what I can gather it's gonna SNOW!!!! I dig it.

I don't know it's kind of like entertainment...maybe like a basketball game...there is a lot of back and forth but the winner isn't crowned until the end.  The Euro is the only one I've seen bringing this close enough to the coast(GFS still had it out to sea last I looked) for us in the Dacks
Jay will probably benefit either way and the Berkshires might be the goldmine with this one(or Long Island  and Cape Cod).  The only certain thing this time is we stay on the cold side...no R!&n... either some snow or cold and wind.  Those of you in the favored Lake Effect areas will also make out.
Positive Vibes...Think Snow!

I live in Rockland County..So this could work out for me and hopefully everyone else..

 Woo Hoo Powder day at Big Birch, Mt. Peter, Sterling Forest and near and dear to me...Campgaw!  Am I dating myself?  I know Campgaw is still open...I want to go out on a limb and please chime in if you have an opinion...not looking at any models...the last two storms that came out of the great lakes reformed in the atlantic and then backed into Maine...with minimal energy pushing from our west, could this one actually ride up into CT/RI area...bringing a pretty hefty storm inland?  Thoughts

NYC NWS through out the 12z EURO???

 MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE
NORTH...HELPING TO TAP INTO RE-ENFORCING COLD AIR...WITH A MAINLY
N TO NW WIND FLOW WITH THIS STORM...AS A RESULT...ONCE AGAIN
DISCARDING THE 12Z ECMWF.

apparently someone hasn't thrown it out yet although it is from 6:30 NWS Albany discussion:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL BE ONGOING...HOWEVER...ITS EXACT
TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION.  TRENDS IN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THOSE TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
ENSEMBLES...HAVE MOVED WEST.  IMPACTS FOR THE REGION COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ON MONDAY WITH ONGOING SNOWFALL...INCLUDING WIND
MAGNITUDES ON THE INCREASE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND AWAIT FURTHER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
This is entertainment....

 I'm about to put this system to bed...

The short of it, all the models basically kill it or keep it way out to sea..Nothing worse than watching it snow on the beach...

It is going to be painful watching the Sunday night football game from Foxboro