Storm Speculation: 12/9/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

THEN WE INCREASE POPS TO 50 LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CALLING
IT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GOING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BACK TO A
RAIN MIX WEDNESDAY. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN...BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...WE THINK IT WILL BE MORE OF RAIN SNOW SCENARIO AT THIS
VANTAGE POINT.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S...TO NEAR 40 MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...SO CERTAINLY SOME RAIN DOWN IN THAT
AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS INTO THE 20S SO SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND
THEN HIGHS MID 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND ISSUES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POWER OUTAGES GIVEN
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER WET HEAVY SNOWFALL. IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THERE MIGHT EVEN BE ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR SOME HYDRO ISSUES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ON FRIDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

Still have some details to work out but its looking more and more likely a strong Noreaster could affect the area in the mid week time.

I'm no weather guy, in the sense that I don't know how to interpret raw weather data. But I have read a ton of weather analysis and I like where this seems to be headed right now.

ALB just got on the bus with the Winter Storm Watch that BGM and BTV put up early this am:

This storm has potential.

Interesting track.  Reminds me a little of Snowmagedon.



GFS has moved the precip to the south for now...



I personally think ground zero will be Gore and Killington. I also think WF/NoVT will get a similar amount, but fluffier.

I'm not a weather man, and I don't play one on TV.

Harvey wrote

I'm not a weather man, and I don't play one on TV.

You should, you'd be awesome.

Everyone seems to be having trouble with this one.  I find it nice that meteorologists haven't been throwing up accumulation maps yet just to have the first one up.

Nothin' like a Birthday snowstorm

HAPPY BIRTHDAY! I agree birthday snowstorms are the best.

We're obviously short on cold air. But the track is to die for IMO.

Sick Bird Rider wrote

Harvey wrote

I'm not a weather man, and I don't play one on TV.

You should, you'd be awesome.

Do you think we need to get him the same set of precision predictions instruments JasonWX uses?

PeeTex wrote

Do you think we need to get him the same set of precision predictions instruments JasonWX uses?

One of Jason's two dice would have rain on every side.

Gully washers for all!

Just like it's always 5pm somewhere, there's always a gully being washed somewhere...

Here's a weather source I wasn't aware of... FingerLakesWeather

http://flxweather.com/2014/12/08/prolonged-significant-winter-storm-this-week/

...and so sorry birthdayboy but they are out with a map...



but there is hope! They have a NO HYPE GUARANTEE!

http://flxweather.com/no-hype-guarantee/

The key for all is at the lower right... where is that low when it stalls?

I think it'd be nice to have JasonWx's input here.  I personally like his reporting... One more point of view never hurt anyone

Looks like 14" fer us

Harvey wrote

Here's a weather source I wasn't aware of... FingerLakesWeather

You really should pay closer attention, Harv

Same kid just changed the name of his site ---- I follow him closely and finds he does an excellent job w/ his forecasts

http://nyskiblog.com/forums/

campgottagopee wrote

Harvey wrote

Here's a weather source I wasn't aware of... FingerLakesWeather

You really should pay closer attention, Harv

Same kid just changed the name of his site ---- I follow him closely and finds he does an excellent job w/ his forecasts

http://nyskiblog.com/forums/

I like it. I added it to our BGM weather page...

http://nyskiblog.com/weather/bgm

...probably should add it to BUF too, since the lakes extend into that area.

Chris wrote

I think it'd be nice to have JasonWx's input here.  I personally like his reporting... One more point of view never hurt anyone

I agree. Always good to have other opinions. I just have a long running problem with the pessimistic nature of Jason's posts. I would have missed some awesome days and adventures if I listened to him all the time.

Sometimes I feel asking Jason is like asking a second opinion from a doctor who says "This dude's gonna die anyway. Nothing we can do."

But yes, let's hear what he has to say.

I like 10-14 for gore and whiteface

Ok , I have been forced out of retirement(hiding)

This event is a complex mess..Up until the last run I would have said most areas east of the Hudson River(rt 9) would receive mostly rain/snow mix..Areas West of the river more snow than rain. Hate to make a forecast based on one run, but now it looks like mostly snow for everyone from the Cats north. Only problem is the further north you go the less precip..

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if this changes again. One way or another..
When dealing with a vertically stacked and cut off system anything can and will happen..kinda akin to a spinning top on a table. who knows were it will go..

"bye for now"

Dig it Jason thanks!

It's on kids, warnings are up and they have been expanded...



NWS ALB forecast discussion (usually posted by 4 or 4:30 pm) is delayed.

I'm sure the boys are workin hard to get it as right as possible!