Storm Speculation Feb 3-4 2018

Mountain Forecast showing 5+ inches on Saturday night for both Gore and Whiteface. Since both are pretty barren right now might as well provide some hope. What say you wannabe weather experts?

as of now it looks like a weak upper air disturbance..nothing organized it will usher in some colder air...

I can see clippers dropping a few inches every few days....not seeing any big dogs.  That Friday storm the GFS was loving turned into a cold front as I suspected.  

NorEaster27 wrote

I can see clippers dropping a few inches every few days....not seeing any big dogs.  That Friday storm the GFS was loving turned into a cold front as I suspected.

yep
good call...
looks like lots of cold air, kind of boring..

looks like the west burns up...

I have to take a better look but nws is all in

NYZ032-033-038-042-082-042200-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0004.180204T1200Z-180205T1200Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Warren-
Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever,
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis,
Hoffmeister, Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk,
Frankfort, Dolgeville, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek,
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, and Caroga Lake
621 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to
  14 inches are expected with the higher totals over the
  southern Adirondacks.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer, Hamilton, Southern Herkimer,
  Northern Warren and Northern Fulton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions and
  snow covered roads. Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. Snow rates may reach and exceed an inch
  an hour late this morning into the afternoon.

They sure did push all their chips in..Hmm

looked at the 12z Fous for ALB and BTV...shows qpf  .54 for Alb and .21 for btv...with critical values..
this will be interesting..


241
FOUS61 KWNO 041200
OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z FEB 04 18
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
ALB//708457 06313 211817 30979894   BTV//748355 12312 181815 26969691
06000819061 17115 181820 31999693   06000848861 08713 151922 29989492
12019979260 26307 101707 37000097   12004959057 13210 101712 32999894
18035984921 00711 033109 38009898   18013955628 -2310 032306 33009893
24000755606 04517 092821 24959389   24004817608 02713 073017 21949187
30000452408 -1818 193016 19938590   30000372707 -4219 173012 14908485
36000662630 -0923 242811 25928891   36000412528 -1825 212606 18918586
42000705458 03325 251807 28928991   42000677150 02625 231809 21918686
48000665846 03523 251810 27939288   48003818428 03923 241812 19918884
54000575622 02920 261906 27989187   54000654326 02121 252011 20969084
60000743328 -1222 303003 29989389   60000733531 -0421 292308 21979083

4.5" in the SW corner of the park so far

Wow!

SW Dacks big winners so far as strong SW upslope snow is focusing the snow just to the SW of Gore and Lake George.

interesting scenario  

also wed's system almost identical..

JasonWx wrote

241
FOUS61 KWNO 041200
OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z FEB 04 18
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
ALB//708457 06313 211817 30979894   BTV//748355 12312 181815 26969691
06000819061 17115 181820 31999693   06000848861 08713 151922 29989492
12019979260 26307 101707 37000097   12004959057 13210 101712 32999894
18035984921 00711 033109 38009898   18013955628 -2310 032306 33009893
24000755606 04517 092821 24959389   24004817608 02713 073017 21949187
30000452408 -1818 193016 19938590   30000372707 -4219 173012 14908485
36000662630 -0923 242811 25928891   36000412528 -1825 212606 18918586
42000705458 03325 251807 28928991   42000677150 02625 231809 21918686
48000665846 03523 251810 27939288   48003818428 03923 241812 19918884
54000575622 02920 261906 27989187   54000654326 02121 252011 20969084
60000743328 -1222 303003 29989389   60000733531 -0421 292308 21979083

Ok let us mortals in on WTF this tells us.

On the radar it looks to be lightening up over Gore, but the webcam shows good snow.

It's strong upslope, Wells to Speculator will get the most but it's still snowing at Gore per the webcam.  

Harvey wrote

JasonWx wrote

241
FOUS61 KWNO 041200
OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z FEB 04 18
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
ALB//708457 06313 211817 30979894   BTV//748355 12312 181815 26969691
06000819061 17115 181820 31999693   06000848861 08713 151922 29989492
12019979260 26307 101707 37000097   12004959057 13210 101712 32999894
18035984921 00711 033109 38009898   18013955628 -2310 032306 33009893
24000755606 04517 092821 24959389   24004817608 02713 073017 21949187
30000452408 -1818 193016 19938590   30000372707 -4219 173012 14908485
36000662630 -0923 242811 25928891   36000412528 -1825 212606 18918586
42000705458 03325 251807 28928991   42000677150 02625 231809 21918686
48000665846 03523 251810 27939288   48003818428 03923 241812 19918884
54000575622 02920 261906 27989187   54000654326 02121 252011 20969084
60000743328 -1222 303003 29989389   60000733531 -0421 292308 21979083

... [show rest of quote]

Ok let us mortals in on WTF this tells us.

On the radar it looks to be lightening up over Gore, but the webcam shows good snow.

... [show rest of quote]

it's the numerical output of the NAM

At the Glen, about 4-5 inches on the ground and it's coming down light/medium.

tom

Up to 10 now and still coming strong.  Oak is ground zero

Wed is the day.

17"+ in Stony Creek (25 miles S of Gore) Still coming down at a steady pace but not accumulating like it was most of the day.  When we woke up this morning Accuweather was calling for 1-3 and Wunderground 5-8.

Now we're watching Wed. which looks promising along with next weekend.  We really needed this, hope the next two are even half as good as this.  AND there is no thaw in the 10 reports!  :-)  

Enjoy everyone!