The Weather Thread 10/11

Post your weather info here.

Here's what I've got tonight. Lionel Hutz, over at FIS issued a warning this afternoon about severe weather in the north country.  

I checked the point forecast map on Jason's Weather Wall and it was showing severe weather potential across much of the northeast, including some tornado warnings, which are pretty serious:



The radar is pretty lively tonight, but also widely scattered:



From what I can tell it's been raining on an off up north, the last few weeks. We've got zilch for precip in downtown NJ and everything is dying. Even small and midsize trees.

Would love to get some rain, without any severe wind or hail damage.

That is all.

Not too shabby for July weather, IMO:



Granted it is 7am.

It was 59 here in North Jersey this morning at 6am.

43F this morning at Shaman HQ. Winter is coming

And ... later this week ... in the northern reaches of the promised land ... Quebec ... it will snow...

Interesting weekend up on Mt George:

I'm not sure what it's like at Gore right now, but I just woke up and looked out the window to see white roofs on almost every car here in Buffalo.

I got very excited, put on some pants and ran out into the parking lot. It was just frost, but it's still a good sign!

Yesterday I got my ski boots on, clicked into my skis and had my room mate drag me down the hall. I think the snowgods are teasing me.

fujative wrote

I got very excited, put on some pants and ran out into the parking lot.

Good call on the pants Fuje...

I know it's not really relevant to most of us, but it's the first time I've sensed that the underlying excitement that the NWS guys only seem to have during the winter....

* * *

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE SOME WHOLESALE CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FCST...ESP THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION ...

... THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST SYSTEM SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON. COULD BE SOME DOWNSLOPING WIND ISSUES ...AND EVEN A THREAT OF HIGHER ELEVATION MIXED PCPN ACROSS OUR NRN MTNS LATER IN THE PERIOD ... TOO SOON TO PIN DOWN IF AND WHEN ... FOR NOW WILL OFFER POPS INCREASING TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY AND UNDERCUT MOS MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT FRI/SAT TIME FRAME AS BNDRY LYR FLOW TRENDS NORTHERLY AND CAA KICKS IN.



Kinda early and a little warm ... but she sure is purdy...

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jason on this weekend:

http://www.nyskiblog.com/2010/10/first-snowfall-of-season.html

That says up to FIVE INCHES of SNOW up North. It may be off,but I'm praying! (Even though I'm 300 miles away)

Tonight is the first time the "Surface Low Tracks" Map has shown data this season. It's only used to track winter storms:



You can see the surface low tracks and other useful weather data on the new and improved Harvey Road Weather Wall.

While we'll continue to post biggest weather news on the blog homepage, stay tuned to the Weather Wall for Jason's latest insight into North Country weather.

First appearance this season of forecasted NY snow on the WRF map:



First that I've seen anyway.

Tomorrow at WF

Friday: Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

I think I need to go home this weekend, and GO SKIIINGGGGG

So what's it looking like for this storm? Going home is a pretty big decision for me seeing as it's gonna be about $90 in gas round trip.

Weather.gov Says that their looking at 1-3, while this map is saying 18 - 20 inches. Is that because weather.gov takes the average elevation over a big area, or just a different prediction?

Coldest air of the fall season looks to arrive later next week, with the potential for a coastal event.

Just remember this event is 120+ hrs away. So much can happen.

What I do like is that the Euro model shows this event too.



Look for a more complete analysis on Tuesday on the blog.

That sounds nice, I could use some snow.

I may even be going home that weekend

For Whiteface:



For Gore:



For Belleayre:



I know next week is looking really warm, but still... kinda "cool."