9 million American skiers

At least per an article in Bloomberg I read.  It also said as the Baby Boomer generation dies off, that number is going to shrink dramatically.

Between climate change and a dwindling number of skiers, a map of American ski areas in 50 years is going to look very different then today.

More like 15 years.

I hope you're wrong, but probably right.  I can see many smaller mountains closing up shop in that timeframe, unless they find success in other areas (mountain biking, weddings, ect).

Saratogahalfday wrote

I hope you're wrong, but probably right.  I can see many smaller mountains closing up shop in that timeframe, unless they find success in other areas (mountain biking, weddings, ect).

There are more small mountains than you might think that are investing money to make them stronger 4-season resorts.  The examples I can think of quickly are Massanutten (home mountain), Boyne Mountain and Boyne Highlands in Michigan, and Waterville Valley.  These were always 4-season resorts.

Out west, I know Diamond Peak was working with a consultant to figure out what to do with the property to bring in revenue during the "green" months.  The change in the Forest Service permitting process as of 2014 is what's made it possible for the big resorts to build more revenue producing activities in and around ski base lodges.  For example, it's pretty clear that Taos planned new buildings more for summer revenue than winter.  Although there was money put into new lifts soon after the ownership changed a few years ago.

I'm watching to see what happens with Magic and Tenney.  Magic has a disc golf league that seems to be quite popular during the summer months.

Clearly there will be closures.  But as was the case with Tenney a while back and Timberline in WV recently, the bigger factor is usually poor management, not climate or lack of market.  But then . . . I'm an optimist.

The Boomers basically created the ski industry, and may take most of it to their graves. If it wasn't for snowboarding, the "ski" industry would be in much worse shape.

Here, let's do some math. The Boomers are about 75 million in numbers. The first one turned 65 on 01/01/11, and 10,000 will turn 65 every day until 01/01/31, so the world will be rid of them about a decade after that. They're getting awfully old, and, let's face it, skiing is a dangerous sport, especially for fragile old people. Most don't have much money saved, too, so they won't be able to afford one of the most expensive sports, although you may be seeing a final flameout right now at many hills because senior deals are everywhere. But, they'll only be near those deals, and not spending much else, because, again, most don't have much money, even the ones who actually have more than Social Security, who are half of non working oldsters.
Sugarbush is basically free to anyone over 65 midweek, and, if you scan the lodge at, oh, 11am, you'll see only old people, hardly any young people. And, if it wasnt for the seniors, that place would be a ghost town on weekdays. Maybe this is all anecdotal, but, I dont see many young people on skis at all. It's way too expensive for someone with student debt and a crappy job with minimal time off. I don't think thd excitement is there, after the snowboarding fad kind of died.

I don’t think disc golf is going to save a flailing ski area operation.

We have a shit ton of young college kids here at Snowbowl every weekend. Lot 5/6 is filled with em drinking beers and barbecuing. They can be a bit annoying but it’s also cool to see new generations getting into the sport.

Nothing in this world is forever. Shoot, Luke Perry just passed away. My point is things change except maybe the discomfort change creates for people.

Benny Profane wrote

The Boomers basically created the ski industry, and may take most of it to their graves. If it wasn't for snowboarding, the "ski" industry would be in much worse shape.

Here, let's do some math. The Boomers are about 75 million in numbers. The first one turned 65 on 01/01/11, and 10,000 will turn 65 every day until 01/01/31, so the world will be rid of them about a decade after that. They're getting awfully old, and, let's face it, skiing is a dangerous sport, especially for fragile old people. Most don't have much money saved, too, so they won't be able to afford one of the most expensive sports, although you may be seeing a final flameout right now at many hills because senior deals are everywhere. But, they'll only be near those deals, and not spending much else, because, again, most don't have much money, even the ones who actually have more than Social Security, who are half of non working oldsters.

There are some interesting facts in your post, but it ignores that skiers are higher on the income scale vs non-skiers. The boomers with only SS to live on are generally not skiers. While initial outlay for skiing by a newby can be expensive, lifetime skiers have plenty of equipment and know the ins and outs of how to make skiing affordable. Skiers do teach their children to ski, so as the boomers leave the sport, their kids will continue to ski and take the next generation skiing.
 

Benny Profane wrote

Sugarbush is basically free to anyone over 65 midweek, and, if you scan the lodge at, oh, 11am, you'll see only old people, hardly any young people. And, if it wasnt for the seniors, that place would be a ghost town on weekdays. Maybe this is all anecdotal, but, I dont see many young people on skis at all. It's way too expensive for someone with student debt and a crappy job with minimal time off. I don't think thd excitement is there, after the snowboarding fad kind of died.

Come on Benny - it is the East, people have jobs and if they have a week off they are flying out West. It has been mostly older skiers in the lodges mid week in the East forever. Ski on a weekend, the places are packed with kids.

x10003q wrote

Come on Benny - it is the East, people have jobs and if they have a week off they are flying out West.

I'd go to Smuggs.  

"kids" is the key word there, and most of them seem to be locals (meaning don't require lodging)  What you really don't see on the East coast in numbers to replace the baby boomers is 20 and 30 somethings skiing on their own dime.

TheGreatAbyss wrote

"kids" is the key word there, and most of them seem to be locals (meaning don't require lodging)  What you really don't see on the East coast in numbers to replace the baby boomers is 20 and 30 somethings skiing on their own dime.

Be interesting to know the percentages and/or numbers for the passes that are geared to young adults.  There are some that are for those who have finished college or grad school.  My sense is that they are relatively new offerings.

Peak has the Drifter for ages 18-29 for $499.  Boyne has the Nitro (new?) New England pass for $349 until March 10 that is 29 and under, plus a College pass (full-time) for $369 or $269 (with holiday blackout dates).  Taos Ski Valley has a Zia pass for ages 18-35 that is $365.

Wachusett was petty busy last Thursday for midweek and wasn't just old folks.  Everyone wanted to ski the fresh corduroy that was an after effect of the snowstorm that closed schools on Monday.  That's a place that has figured out their local market and has three timeframes midweek.  Mornings for retirees or people with flexible work schedules plus home school groups, afternoons for school kids (by the bus load weekly), and night skiing for racers and other working folks.  Granted it's pulling from a large metropolitan area, but a lot of people are traveling 45-90 min for a day trip.  Even have special train times from downtown Boston on weekends.

Lift ticket prices are only a small piece of it.  I think the biggest thing holding back the 20 and 30 somethings is transportation and housing.   The millennials with disposable incomes that the ski industry needs to target live much more urban lives then the boomers did at the same age, and a lot of them don't own cars.  The cost to rent a small SUV in NYC for the weekend is about $200/night.  Add that to lodging, rentals, and lift ticket prices and you can see the problem.  Yes there are all inclusive bus trips that leave from NYC but they are brutal.  They leave at 3 am, you stay in shitty lodges, and hauling your gear around without your own car is just a pain.  They are really geared for the occasional skier/partier, not the season pass holder.

One other pet peeve of mine is that the mountains themselves need to change the focus of the culture away from the Boomers.  I can't listen to another old man rock band at Apres singing songs by the Stones, Zep, AC/DC, Van Halen, etc...  Bring in some younger talent playing more contemporary hits from at least the 90s on...