AccuWeather Predicts Cold Blast Thanksgiving- Xmas

AccuWeather says after this warm upcoming weekend, the snow guns are going to start blazing:  from their website today:
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AccuWeather.com long-range expert meteorologist, Joe Bastardi stated weeks ago, "The period from Thanksgiving to Christmas will be the coldest of the winter, relative to normal, in the eastern U.S."

Bastardi also feels this period may also yield the busiest period for winter storms in the Northeast.

Sometimes the first big arctic cold blast of the winter sputters upon crossing the Appalachians. While this is a possibility, it will still turn colder than it has been at any point so far this season during Thanksgiving week along the I-95 corridor.

The sudden change to winter cold will have ski resorts cranking out snow like mad, with desires to open as many trails as possible for Thanksgiving weekend.

This has been hinted at by a few different sources.

Jason... I KNOW you are loath to predict things more than 4 or 5 days out. But... could you look at whatever JB and the other hypemeisters are looking at, and give us an idea if indications are for the outbreak early or late in the week?

Or here's another question... what is the most reliable model for temp predictions 10-14 days out?

In the last few days this guy shows the blue shifting to the east:


8-14 Day Temp Forecast

We need more than a day of cold weather to get the WROD going.

We've experienced that before. I specifically recall cold, zero-ish weather in early Decembers and it turned out to be some of the longer, colder spells all winter. I believe it was 3 years ago, we came home from a Thanksgiving trip to Steeler country and it got frickin zero cold for several weeks. Didn't hang any outside Christmas lights that year.

As mentioned in a earlier post...  colder weather would be arriving around Thanksgiving time. Mr Bastardi is correct, that it looks real cold and potentially stormy..The problem is the GFS has a tendency to over do the long range, either too cold or too warm..

It is fun look at and fantasize about, I like to wait for till the medium range to short range period to make a forecast. Since Thanksgiving is still in the 300 hrs + of the GFS. I going to wait a couple more days before I jump totally on the band wagon..

As of this moment, I'm liking where this is headed:


6-10 Day Temp Forecast

Quick weather update..This coming week will be warm and turning wet through late Thursday. Followed by more seasonable temps Friday - Sunday. Then another warm up till Thanksgiving Day. Then the models are showing ridging in the North Atlantic (the key to winter weather). Hopefully this will open the door to a much more pronounced and long lasting cold wave...

Things are starting to look a lot more promising in the long range. Tonight through Monday the temps up north should be cold enough for the ski areas to make a decent amount of snow. That's the good news,now the so so news. Tues through Wednesday will be warm. Now the real good news, Thanksgiving Day on, looks down right cold with a chance for a event on Black Friday. The Tea Leaves are starting to show a major arctic outbreak. But this is far in the future and things can flip on dime..