CV Analysis

I must be bored so I found the latest data and made a spreadsheet to calculate mortality by state.  Nothing scientific about my findings at all but perhaps a glimpse at things to come.  For mortality I just divided total deaths by total cases.  Without doing any weighting by state population, my guess is that the current mortality as I define it is around 1.6%.  Big states - CA:2.0%, FL:1.4%, TX:1.3%, NY:1.3%.  Of course it only includes people who have tested positive so we would have to estimate the number of people who get it and never get tested.  I have know idea how to estimate that number.  Also a time delay factor could make this 1.6% number total garbage.

From what I can glean from the CDC website, it looks like the regular old influenza has a death rate of around 0.13% for those that actually contract the virus.   For CV, the ratio of untested:tested contractions is the big unknown - if it's 10:1 then this thing is slightly more deadly than the flu.  If it's 2:1 then it's going to kill ~200,000 people worst case - this of course assumes no social distancing, etc.  The biggest problem seems to be the high rate of contagion; this overwhelms hospitals and worsens the overall outcome.

What amazes me is the cases versus deaths from the NYC area:

Queens        8,529    149
Brooklyn    7,091    102
Bronx        4,880    101
Manhattan    4,627    65
Staten Island    1,534    33
Westchester    7,187    10

How can Westchester have just one death?  It can't be due to timing factors as it had cases right at the start of the outbreak.  Is it due to wealth and better lifestyle choices? Seems that even that wouldn't explain away the absurd variance.

Curious to hear your thoughts.  If anyone wants the spreadsheet I used to come up with this then PM me.

[Full disclosure - I'm an engineer and not a statistician or pandemic specialist so go easy on the floggings.]

You’re doing about as good a job as my brother who is in finance. The problem is that you have no idea if the total number of infected is even close to accurate. There aren’t enough tests yet and the parameters for getting one seem to vary based on jurisdiction, time and individual care givers understanding of the rules. This is what people mean by “not knowing the denominator”. Bad data = bad analysis

Westchester ... more unnecessary testing?

I keep going through this with my bother, the nurse.  He’s convinced, and probably right, that the lack of testing is causing the current fatality rate to be overstated.  Once widespread testing is done I don’t doubt that the fatality rate for COVID-19 will be similar to Influenza.  The concern I see is with the transmission rate (Ro), which appears to be much higher than for Influenza.  The exponential growth on this thing has been frightening, with cases (and deaths) doubling every 3 to 4 days.  Unchecked that would lead to massive numbers, hence the need for social distancing.

Washing hands.
There are folks who don't have symptoms and have the virus.
See:COVID-19: faecal–oral transmission?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41575-020-0295-7

There's this too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toilet_plume

JTG4eva! wrote

.  The concern I see is with the transmission rate (Ro), which appears to be much higher than for Influenza. .

Correct.

As Brownski says, it's very difficult (even for statistical geniuses) to run numbers with incomplete data.

And if you're talking to a "it's the same as the flu" person and they don't mention the difference in transmission rates or the fact that it's a "novel" virus (that we don't appear to be prepared for) rather than a seasonal virus (which we have systems in place to deal with), it's likely that that person either doesn't pay very much attention to the news or has an agenda.

The Jewish community. They insist on the tests

Thanks to all for you responses - all good points.  I understand the denominator problem and was trying to do some "back of the napkin" estimates to put some boundaries around the denominator.  Without more complete all you can do is estimate and plan accordingly.

I think I just heard that parts of northern Italy are reporting a 9% mortality rate. That’s pretty alarming but it begs the same questions. Is it a testing issue skewing the statistics or an overwhelmed healthcare system that is no longer able to care for patients  that otherwise might recover. Or it could be the media jumping on the most dire reports, regardless of credibility, to keep people glued to the tube. Certainly the raw numbers coming out of Italy are just horrible. It’s hard to determine what they mean for us but the people there are really suffering.

onscott wrote

Thanks to all for you responses - all good points.  

...Except for the anti-semitic one.  It's no more the "Jewish community" than it is a Chinese virus.

I'm wondering how many people get CV symptoms and are afraid to get tested and just ride it out.  In my county there was one case in the news where someone took a picture of people having a "tailgate" party and shortly thereafter the county exec was chewing them out for their dangerous behavior.  Neighbor against neighbor...just what we need now.

I've felt crappy for three weeks.   A constant sore throat and a headache that comes and goes. I went to the doc, she told me she would test me if I insisted. But those aren't classic symptoms.

Seems like there is no point. If I have it, I'm sure the whole family has it.  Wife has the same symptoms, but for two days also had a cough and shortness of breath. Odds are we'll probably live. Using up a test makes no sense, at this moment.

Keep watching the media to see if the symptom list is evolving, doesn't seem to except for the no taste/smell thing that is new.

Here is Ulster County's website on case details. Pretty nice, we are about at 130 cases. Go to the bottom of the page and click "More Case Information": https://covid19.ulstercountyny.gov

Here is Orange County's page, they are at 1,142 cases as of yesterday: https://www.orangecountygov.com/1936/Coronavirus
There looks to be a cluster in Kyrias Joel (Palm Tree), that's not surprising given the density and general lack of giving a shit about policy

(Disclaimer, I live in Ellenville and we have a long and proud secular Jewish and Orthodox Jewish history, both of which have negative views of the Hasidic communities. I do not mean to cast all citizens of Hasidic community negatively, I have had some good interactions with a number of people, but those people them-shelves state that most of the structure of the various Hasidic sects are corrupt)

evantful wrote

Here is Ulster County's website on case details. Pretty nice, we are about at 130 cases. Go to the bottom of the page and click "More Case Information": https://covid19.ulstercountyny.gov

Here is Orange County's page, they are at 1,142 cases as of yesterday: https://www.orangecountygov.com/1936/Coronavirus
There looks to be a cluster in Kyrias Joel (Palm Tree), that's not surprising given the density and general lack of giving a shit about policy

(Disclaimer, I live in Ellenville and we have a long and proud secular Jewish and Orthodox Jewish history, both of which have negative views of the Hasidic communities. I do not mean to cast all citizens of Hasidic community negatively, I have had some good interactions with a number of people, but those people them-shelves state that most of the structure of the various Hasidic sects are corrupt)

IMHO, religious zealots of any persuasion are kind of crazy, take everything to the extreme, the Hasids being one of them. But, this is America and I support freedom of all religions.  Back to the topic, I totally agree with you. The Hasidic community is extremely insular, crazy anti-vaxxers, (not that there is a vaccine yet for Covid) hence the higher numbers in both, Orange County and Brooklyn.

But, New Rochelle is far from Hasidic.  Some science and knowledge like you brought to the table, Evan, would help us here.  There are many science based reasons why Westchester would have fewer deaths than some other counties. Here are just 3: (1) The New Rochelle (initial outbreak) was, I believe, the first town (other than the Seattle Nursing Home) that was under any type of quarantine; (2) The residents within that one-mile radius quarantined area, at least anyone with known exposure to the original guy, were tested door to door for the virus (more testing = more positives = lower death rate); (3) Westchester is on average, more affluent than these other counties, which would indicate earlier access to better healthcare.

Harvey, please get your wife tested. The shortness of breath is the tipping point.

Hugs,

WP

My dad has been plotting the covid19 data for NYS for a while, just cuz.  Retired scientist and all that. We met today for a walk. He said that this is going to be a really shitty week. He was not referring to the weather. :(

Be safe, take care of yourself and wash your damn hands!

WP

She hasn't had any breathing issues in 2 or 3 days.  I'm 99% sure they would not do anything beyond telling her to stay home and rest.

Marcski wrote

 There are many science based reasons why Westchester would have fewer deaths than some other counties. Here are just 3:

Yes, this make sense and I should have thought of this.  It's the "when you go looking for trouble you're likely to find it" principle.  Healthier and wealthier population so you are simply finding healthy people who contracted it and wouldn't have bothered to get tested under normal circumstances.

WP - I'm seeing the opposite from your Dad's analysis but it could easily be that I'm projecting my overly optimistic bias onto my analysis.

onscott wrote

WP - I'm seeing the opposite from your Dad's analysis but it could easily be that I'm projecting my overly optimistic bias onto my analysis.

I don’t know what to think or who is right.  The number of US deaths doubled in 48 hours (from Thursday to Saturday) and 234 people died in NYC yesterday, a 33% increase in total deaths from the day before.  That’s some scary shit, and if the curve is still headed up the latest numbers are not all that encouraging.....but we have to get over the hump at some point!

Communicated digitally with a Milanese colleague today who lives in Milan.

He said, "Stay home."