Crystal Visions: Anatomy of a Storm Chase

This will be my Trip Report for the weekend trip to Crystal Mountain, WA that I currently have booked for 12/10-12/11/2016.  Yes, I know....it hasn't happened yet, so how can you have a trip report?  Well, we all know that most trips start with planning, so I'll use this pre-trip period to document how a (hopefully) successful storm chase comes off, for me at least!

A few observations on storm chases.  I still haven't figured out if they insane or brilliant, probably equal parts of both!  However, depending upon your circumstances they can be a God send.  See, I'm not likely to be able to book the week long Western ski vacation, at least not yet....need the boys to get a little older/more accomplished.  Also, the wife isn't a big skier.  So, I have to take what I can get, when I can get it, knowing that the fam isn't as committed/flexible/insane as I am!  So, it works for me, although ymmv.  Also note that storm chases can go from 0 to 100 in a flash.  Just this time last week Crystal was barely open and I was asking the guide I know out there when the BC would come into play.  Well, by Friday he was ripping the BC in that video nepa posted.  After upwards of 3 feet since then the seed of an idea was planted.  Add in the forecast for several more feet this week and the idea was set, and a week after first inquiry the trip is on the books.

Next post I'll take a look at what it takes for such a trip to come together......and it involves a lot off good fortune!

Not sure if you saved these from your last trip... telemetry links at Crystal... hourly temp, wind, accumulation info

NWAC Telemetry Base/Summit at Crystal
NWAC Telemetry Crystal - Green Valley

Thanks for the links, again.

Seth sent me this link.

http://winterscience.com

Buddy of his is running weather models through an artificial intelligence algorithm, to obtain more accurate prefictions.  Looks like cool stuff.

Bon chance!  Good fortune.  Gettin' lucky (no, not that lucky).  That's what makes a storm chase happen for me.  There are just so many factors that you just can't plan for in advance.

Well, this time all those factors came together.  It started with a quick beginning to the Crystal season...from warm and little snow to great conditions and the BC legitimately in play in two week's time.  Luckily, Ullr and La Niña were being kind and generous, and had me paying attention.  

As the conditions were improving the December family schedule came into focus.  Again, luckily, the weekend of Dec 10 began shaping up as free.  Holiday decorating done, no soccer tournaments, able to move my son's acolyte duties to last weekend, Christmas shopping under control.  Hey, if you have kids you know what a minor miracle it is to not have any of those kinds of obligations infringe on a weekend so close to the holidays.  

However, decent conditions and a free weekend do not a storm chase make.  Then there was the ultimate skiing good fortune.....the forecast.  A late week monster in the cards, ready to drop a couple feet on top of already good conditions, just in time to set up for an incredible weekend.  Oh, how nice that could be.....if only luck would hold out.  In yet another fortunate turn, as a day in the BC is a main point of such a trip, Seth, the guide I have used, was available.....so on we go.  

A fortunate decision a couple years ago to run most of our expenditures through a Delta Sky Miles Amex has resulted in a lot of available frequent flyer miles, but they do no good unless there are available seats.  Luckily, the nonstop JFK to SEA flights each way were available for a reasonable number of miles.  That was the last piece of luck, the clincher, that allowed the trip to hit the books.  Early season you don't need as much luck on lodging, as the slope side Alpine Inn was available.  More good fortune saw a two day Avis SUV come my way through a special Priceline deal.  With that the pieces were, luckily, in place.  We'll see if my good fortune holds when discussing the final details with the wife, who definitely views the endeavor as insanity.

As to the details....

Nonstop JFK to SEA flights:  37,500 Delta Sky Miles

Alpine Inn slope side lodging, $95 per night, $217 total.

Avis SUV two day rental through Priceline, $24 per day, $85 total with taxes and fees.

The most expensive part of the trip will be lift tickets/guide service, which I'll sort out over the next couple of days.  Food and booze money will round out the expenses, and they won't be too much.

For those wondering what this trip would look like without frequent flyer miles add $412, the current JetBlue r/t fare for similar nonstop flights.  That's up $136 from the $276 r/t flights that were available last Friday.

Now let the packing begin!

Cool -- good luck

Nice work JTG!

If you can line it up with a good cycle go for a trip to Silverton some time. It's bad ass.

Looking real nice on the East side this morning JTG...

6 fresh inches already, and it's not even forecasted to start snowing over here until tomorrow night... It's looking like it may snow Thursday through Saturday night across the entire region.  I'm thinking it will be at least 3ft on the West side by the time it is all said and done.

Thanks for the update.  Looks like quite a storm, worthy of the chase!  Heading into the Crystal backcountry on Sunday.  Even if we have to play it conservative on lower angle stuff, if it's waist deep and untracked who cares!

That highlights another aspect of the chase.  The watching, waiting, and sometimes fretting on the forecast.  A actually checked with Seth this morning to see if there was going to be TOO MUCH snow , so as to prohibit us from going out, for safety sake.  Fortunately, all that snow won't be a problem.

This storm is a clean one, all snow with the freezing level only raising to around 3,600 ft for a bit Thursday night into Friday.  Last storm I followed out there wasn't as clean, as freezing levels crept up to near 6,000 ft.  All of that can greatly affect both the snow quality and stability.  So even once you plan the chase there are often nervous times in the lead up!

JTG4eva! wrote

This storm is a clean one, all snow with the freezing level only raising to around 3,600 ft for a bit Thursday night into Friday.  Last storm I followed out there wasn't as clean, as freezing levels crept up to near 6,000 ft.  All of that can greatly affect both the snow quality and stability.  So even once you plan the chase there are often nervous times in the lead up!

Yup..... this one is looking like a Colombian Whore House... lots of Blower.

Crystal got 24+ inches of snow on 1.26 QPF in the last 72 hours.  The forecast QPF for the next 72 hours is up to 1.96 and climbing....that only gets us through midday Friday!  If the ratios hold that would be 3 feet through noon Friday.  Could be 4 feet by the time Saturday rolls around!!

I just looked at 18z GFS ....Holy crap....It's all about the ratio...
I wouldn't be able to sleep or work knowing what you could be getting involved in..

if you took the gfs verbatim there is potential for 100+ inches of snow over the next 2 weeks..

Unusually cold air is now in place... it's going to feel a bit like Utah  

JasonWx wrote

I wouldn't be able to sleep or work knowing what you could be getting involved in..

Ha!  Yes....the watching and waiting, the anticipation, has a way of working it into your life on the lead up.  Heck, I had a soccer game Monday night.  Toward the end of the first half a teammate plays a ball forward.  I have a break on goal, one on one with the keeper, ball between us about 20 feet away, both charging the ball.  Keeper was built like a brick shithouse.  End result is we both end up in a heap on the turf after a massive collision.  After that I got to thinking.....screw this, I've got a trip at the end of the week, I can't afford to get hurt.  I jumped in goal in the second half so as not to pull anything or get otherwise injured.

The forecast watching is kind of unbearable, and I should look away, but I can't!  Like any storm, as it gets closer the forecasts dial in.  On this one the forecasts are backing off some of the extreme 2+ inches of QPF, but this will still likely be an epic three foot storm.

Yes, that brings a lot of excitement and nervousness.  Never skied 3+ feet before, how will I do?  That's a lot of snow in the backcountry, but I'll trust in my guide's judgement and experience.  Hopefully they do a good job on the roads and the ride from SEA to Crystal won't be a bear, although things will be winding down a bit late Friday night.  So many unknowns, so many variables, things that can, potentially, go wrong.  It's at the same time nerve wracking and exciting.

Fortunately, I've been able to sleep and work!!

We don't feel sorry for you that you might struggle in 3+ feet of snow. Sheesh.

Out of curiosity, how much did the late-booked flight cost? I'm just wondering if this kind of Storm chasing is feasible for me, financially...

I was at Alta for a 100" dump, staying at GMD, interlodged for 2 days. When we got out the road stayed closed until mid day and then the locals mobbed the place, it was tracked out by closing bell, except for the stashes that lasted for a few more days

Have fun!

Hey, not looking for sympathy, I deserve none!  Doesn't mean I don't worry about things.  I don't have the backcountry experience that you and others do, and I'm biting off big chunks.

One of my earlier posts has a breakdown in cost.  For me the airline ticket isn't a factor as I use frequent flyer miles.  While I don't travel often anymore, I have been running most of our expenditures through a SkyMiles Amex, and that has earned me a few tickets over the years.

As of Monday a JetBlue flight from JFK to SEA was $412 r/t.  Last Friday is was $276.  It's currently at $509.  It can be booked on Delta right now for $428.  Likewise, last Friday is was less than $300.  Tickets are cheaper if you can book more than a week in advance, but timing a forecast that far out can be challenging.  I have no idea what it would be from Albany.

So, if you were to book everything today it would be $428 for the air, the hotel for two nights (I paid $217 booked Sunday) is currently $365, rental SUV for two days is $85.  Parking at the airport, gas, baggage fees.....maybe another $100.  Food and bar money, anywhere from $50 to $200 for the weekend depending on how you approach it.  Lift tickets and guide are one of the biggest expenses.  Crystal lift ticket is $74.  Guide service depends on if you go in a group or do private.  Experienced in the backcountry and have a buddy you can cut these expenses altogether.

So booked last minute you could be there this weekend for $1,000 give or take, more if you need a guide.  Booked a week in advance it would have been under $1,000, even with some level of guide service.

That's certainly not cheap.  However, for someone like me who isn't invested in any season pass or local lodging anywhere it's not really that bad.  In all honesty, if I skied Whiteface this weekend, which will probably be pretty nice, I'd probably spend $700 on gas, food, lodging and lift tickets.  If I went straight lift tickets, having used ff miles I'd spend less than that going to Crystal, although I'll spend a little more for the guide service.

For you this weekend it would cost you $428 for the airline ticket, $74 for a lift ticket, whatever it costs you to get to JFK, and whatever you spend on food and booze.  I've got plenty of room in the rental, you can sleep on my floor (or I could upgrade to a bigger room for about $300 or you can get your own for $365), and I can probably get the guide to take two of us out for what I'm paying (worst case he charges an extra hundy).

Nice looking forecast for those of us that love snow...

I can upgrade my room to 4 people for that $300, if anyone else wants in on this shit.  We can get a group rate on the guide which would cost everyone maybe $50 over what I'm already paying.  We'd need a bigger boat, I mean rental, though!

I'd be there with you JTG, but all of my shit for this weekend is pre-paid (my house, and season passes)

NOAA forecast is at 44 inches at the base of Crystal.  Mountain Forecast for Naches Peak (a few miles from Crystal) is calling for 42.  My guide's friend's AI model is calling for QPF of 1.85 inches, which should be good for 3 plus feet.  The obsessive forecast watch continues, all of it good!