This was looking 100% ugly this morning but has been downgraded to a mess.
NWS ALB:
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...
This is the active portion of the forecast as a low pressure system tracks north up the eastern seaboard to near eastern long island sunday evening at the same time an arctic cold front will be moving into the eastern great lakes region.
The sref plume diagrams for alb indicate mostly rain with a few members showing snow. There is also considerable spread in the opf amounts from around 0.40 inches to 1.60 inches with a clustering around an inch. The sref probability of ptype fields show rain across the area until btwn 21z and 00z with a changeover to mostly if not all snow by 03z.
This system also had some frontogenic forcing along the nr coast around 00z. The bottom line is that rain is expected to break out from southwest to northeast sunday afternoon and then
transition to snow in most places after dark.
Most areas can expect 1 to 3 inches of snow with 3 to 6 inches across the southern green mountains. Have not issued an advisory at this time as
confidence is rather low regarding how much pcpn will fall as snow and how much as rain.
Expect highs on sunday to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s with lows sunday night in the teens to mid 20s.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp