Winter Weather (2013-2014)

Maybe it will be cold for a while.

Upstate snow is talking about the 3 big indices coming in line in early January:

http://www.upstatesnow.com/rich-lupias-weather/news-story/christmas-eve-weather-update/

Jason Noah Suds Noreaster what say you?

Just saw this in the NWS forecast for tomorrow for the So Adk:

Thursday: Snow likely, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 19. Wind chill values as low as -17. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Not seeing evidence of that kind of snowfall elsewhere.

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I really haven't been too focused on anything farther out than a few days.  I'll be at Whiteface tomorrow because I have to work Lake Placid...an inch or two...Gore Saturday and Sunday...not anything to speak of...maybe Sunday night?  Should have good snowmaking weather with the blip being Sunday...White not wet hopefully.  I look at the days I am available to ski but if something shows that looks good I can make the time.  I have a Mad River Voucher that needs to be used on a perfect day so I will be looking for that...Thanks Duck!  Last Thursday may have been the best day of the year so far...I didn't expect the powder.  The previous Sunday was second best.  I haven't skied since Friday

This is what winter should look like IMO. Especially the 6-to-10:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

BITTER COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK WITH LIFE THREATENING WINDS CHILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

Long term temps are coming around..



...I know the short and medium term is ugly.

But what does this mean...



?

looks like a some LES
GFS has a low off the coast in about 144hrs
but i wouldn't bet the farm on a 144hr
more concerned with the massive rains for Saturday..

We have been on the cusp of greatness this season but this weekend does not look good.  I'll be at Gore early tomorrow but may work rather than ski...depends on whether the bump contest is still on and/or the rains come in early.  I'll ski in light rain.

Nothing up on ilsnow.com, but Darrin is talking about an outside shot at something Friday on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=692983874068760&set=a.107662585934228.8348.105252412841912&type=1&theater

The new Euro is wild...very active and cold..lets hope it's right

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NWS ALB:

The 12z models and guidance are in close agreement of a trough pattern developing over the eastern half of the united states along with a series of low pressure impulses impacting our region.

Model trends differ in strength of these impulses...Where some guidance shows limited moisture sources as they move east from the great lakes. Other guidance shows the apex of the 500 hpa trough reaching the delmarva where low pressure systems will tap into atlantic moisture with a coastal low developing and may produce moderate qpf to affect our region as we go into the coming weekend.

Thursday into friday night...

A coastal low pressure system at the southern end of a front in the atlantic ocean will move north near the new england coastline. The track as of the latest model runs is northeastward into the north atlantic far away from The northeastern states which will allow tranquil conditions into the region.

...12z models show the upper level jet shifting to the new england coastline shifting winds in our region from a southerly to a more northwesterly flow which will allow temperatures to be at or slightly below normal from friday night to the end of the extended period.

Saturday into monday...

Models are different in track and intensity of forecasted low pressure systems. Some of the latest guidance shows a surface low from a deepening upper level trough in the delmarva peninsula tracking northeast over long island providing the chance of a significant snowfall event saturday into saturday evening while other models develop a surface low on a more negative tilted upper level trough well east into the atlantic and keeps the low pressure system far enough out to sea to not affect our area.

Some models depict another low pressure system moving southeast during the day on monday with some precipitation possible.

The HORRIBLE rain has FINALLY pushed off.

That NWS forecast I posted above is looking legit.

Check this out. Holy polar vortex batman:

I know this is something that isn't discussed too much around here, but lake ice is surprisingly thin after this week's warm weather. In Northern Hamilton County, we drilled a max of two inches in an area without a lot of water flow. I've heard of some cars going through the ice too. Appearances can be deceiving with ice- don't be a fool!

Here's hoping next week's cold improves those conditions.