Dr Surge: Skiing Numbers Continue To Decline

Dr Surge's whole argument is based on a small sample size of 3 years. Even within his reference article he fails to use the numbers from 4 years ago (he uses the numbers from 3 years ago) which would change the percentage drop from 21% to 15%.

Participants Link

Season	Alpine	Snowboarding	Total	Cross Country
2012/13	8,243,000	7,351,000	15,594,000	3,307,000
2011/12	10,201,000	7,579,000	17,780,000	4,318,000
2010/11	11,504,000	8,196,000	19,700,000	4,530,000
2009/10	10,919,000	7,421,000	18,340,000	4,157,000

A quick search brought up the following data from 1999-2000 Link #2

"According to the National Ski Areas Association (NSAA), the 1999-00 winter season saw 7.4 million skiers and 3.6 million snowboarders with a combined total of 52.2 million total ski area visits. (A skier/snowboarder visit represents one person visiting a ski area for all or any part of a day or night.) Eighteen percent of the snowboarders also skied. This calculates to 10.4 million total on-slope participants."

So there were only 10,400,000 participants in 1999-2000 vs 15,594,000 in 2012-2013. That is a 50% increase in the number of participants since 1999-2000.

That kind of puts a big hole in your theory.

We really need to see the data from all the years to see whether the trend is up or down. It is certainly up since 1999-2000.

Well, if you're going to recalculate the numbers from 2000, shouldn't you knock 18% off the snowboarding numbers in your stats from last year? I get your point, but I'd like to see similar numbers for a long time period.

My understanding was that total participation leveled off as snowboarders replaced skiers, but now everything is going down slightly (which may be mostly due to climate change, but is important nonetheless)

Coach Z wrote

There is some talk of WF going to the G pay system.  At that point it may not be worth spending the time to teach.  Time is very valuable to me at my place in life.

That's my point. When you pay people less, you start to lose good instructors. We've lost a lot of Level IIIs since we changed pay structure, and a lot more (myself included) are teetering on the brink. We get pretty much half the pay and no discount in the bar. Not hard to see why people are leaving.

You get what you pay for. Costco gets better employees than WalMart because they pay more.

+1

While I enjoy doing it that pay scale after tax brings a 2 hr group lesson to flipping burgers pay and i am well past that.  My wife will keep teaching so I don't have to worry about a pass.  

I work big hours during the week so this pay scale may drive me to ski more and stand around a lot less.  

Can't agree more about the Liftopia option.  I've used it many times.  It's the only way to catch a powder day, without a pass, late notice, on the "cheap". The real question is why isn't there more than one Liftopia? Any fellow entrepreneurs out there listening???

The MC is definitely a start.  I'll give you that. It's just hard to believe that other ski areas/resorts didn't ban together after Vail Resorts started the collective pass years ago.

I feel a great season coming on.  Don't know if you've seen the news, but we're getting more rain right now than any time I can remember in the last 10 yrs.   Hoping it translates to snow in a couple months!

Hey x10003q,

Thanks for reading the article! I always appreciate the feedback. I chose the last three seasons to make my argument, instead of the last four, because a 21% decline in only two years is more concerning to me than a 15% decline in the last three. You site a 50% increase in the number of participants in the last fourteen years. Does that put a "big hole" in my theory? Hmmmm....we've lost 21% since the all-time peak, IN ONLY 2 YEARS.  I don't need a PhD in statistics to know that those numbers don't bode well for the industry.

Any statisticians out there who can confirm or deny my logic?
 
Yes, 15% is less bad than 21%, but both are concerning numbers. Are they not? Let's say I used the last four seasons of data instead of just three. Does that change the fact that the industry is suddenly in a downward spiral after years/decades of growth?

I think you're missing my point. Overall I'm making the argument that we can't base the success on the industry solely on snowfall totals and skier visits, regardless of what the resorts say. That's all.  Even as a man of science I don't accept that climate change is THE factor, especially in light of our economy, and skier visits don't even begin to tell the whole story. If you've examined the numbers and you're willing to put forth a better explanation, by all means...

And hey, when the 2013/14 numbers come out, I'm happy to reexamine my position. I pray to Jebus that I'm wrong.

 Whatever --- For 300 bucks I'll take my lil ole GP...CNY rocks!!

ugh.  

can't believe I actually read most of this dribble.  And I def did not read the other stuff about numbers...  However, worring about a drop in numbers over the last two seasons is pretty, well stupid.  The last two seasons were low snow years on average..

I am done here.  

ScottyJack wrote

ugh.  

can't believe I actually read most of this dribble.  And I def did not read the other stuff about numbers...  However, worring about a drop in numbers over the last two seasons is pretty, well stupid.  The last two seasons were low snow years on average..

I am done here.

I can't believe you read ANY of it.  I saw you had posted on this thread and thought "What the hell is he doing in that giant vat of internet stupid?  That shit'll make you itch!"

If you're not ignoring 99% of what's posted here, you're doing it wrong.

I think the fact that cross country decreased at a faster rate than alpine calls into question the arguemant that lift ticket cost is a major issue. I'm not disputing that tickets are too expensive, but it's not clear the data supports the claim.

It does seem odd however that last year had fewer skiier visits than 11/12 given how bad the weather was is 11/12. Maybe the numbers are simply too volitile year to year and a 4 year moving average would be better.

tom

Statistically invalid comment--anecdotal.

RE: Cross country decline.  I rarely run across people that cross country ski in Md/Va area.  However in past few months I met 4 separate, unrelated, people who purchased xc equipment in the 12/13 season.  All either skied or planned to ski on non-trails. Each cited that they can do it "free" and they  loved being outdoors in the winter.    

Did the sport decline or just move off the paid trails?

Noah John wrote

ScottyJack wrote

ugh.  

can't believe I actually read most of this dribble.  And I def did not read the other stuff about numbers...  However, worring about a drop in numbers over the last two seasons is pretty, well stupid.  The last two seasons were low snow years on average..

I am done here.

I can't believe you read ANY of it.  I saw you had posted on this thread and thought "What the hell is he doing in that giant vat of internet stupid?  That shit'll make you itch!"

If you're not ignoring 99% of what's posted here, you're doing it wrong.

The passive aggressive club makes itself known from the back of the room.

Hmm. Total posts in the forum 28,800. Noah has 285 posts.  

Assuming all of Noah's posts are in the important category then there are 3 other posts we shouldn't ignore.

I'm hoping one of them is one of mine.

If you're not ignoring my posts you need to have your head examined.

Noah John wrote

If you're not ignoring my posts you need to have your head examined.

Say it isn't so


Pretty darn funny how one little wack of the bee hive get's everyone all riled up

Noah John wrote

If you're not ignoring my posts you need to have your head examined.

Trying but it's not always easy.  Need a volume control.

Back on topic..

Spent many years scoping out best approach to get bang for the buck at Whiteface, Bellayre, and Gore. Spent countless hours planning and executing ski weks, weekends, and days. I'm talking I've been doing this for 30 years, in terms of having a wife and family. Deals were out there....still are. The problem these days is the deals are targeted to mid-week, rather than weekends. With minimal vacation time, this is problematic in terms of getting a shot at the offers out there today. I happened to score this summer with a rare offering on craigslist for lift tix and lodging...yes, validated an legit. A total fluke indeed, but I believe if one scratches and claws hard enough for a deal, they can find or negotiate one. Didn't buy a season pass at WFM as I usually do, but will be buying one for my teen son. I consider the price I have paid for this for each of my 3 teen sons over the years a great value. Hopefully the Proce Chopper offer will be viable this year, however, as I recall the lift tix wren't offered for Saturdays, and of course, they were non-holiday. In recent years I have mixed skiing with snowshoeing and XC. This helps reduce cost, offers a great workout, and helps expand my winter sport horizons. Do this with my wife, while my guys head to the mountain. Two things don't excite me at the moment...1. The fact seniors 70+ have to pay for a lift ticket/seasons pass at WFM, prob Gore, Bellayayre ?, as I was looking atthe ski free offer as a great incentive to continue pursuing the sport as I increased in age. And 2...Bellayre who offered the most incredible lift tix deals, now under ORDA, will most prob change their format in terms of offering birthday ski free tix, $15 Friday deals, etc. In all fairness, those days (Friday deal days) tended to be a zoo most of the time anyway, but the fact is folks looked forward to them as another excuse to get out and ski. Oh well, I know I'll be figuring something out to make the most of the season...hopefully others will put the time and effort to do the same.

My son is out in the Bay area. Skied Tahoe last year. Trained him well, as he had a boatload of those Shell vouchers upon the rest of the famliy's arrival. Also hooked us up though some bangin' deals he cracked through Craigslist. We did good.

Caution for those out there about to embark on the Craigslist tactic...BUYER BEWARE! Read the fine print and do everything you can to avoid buying a countefeited product.

Yes, agree...$549 for CO resorts +100 for CA resorts a killer deal

TomCat wrote

I think the fact that cross country decreased at a faster rate than alpine calls into question the arguemant that lift ticket cost is a major issue. I'm not disputing that tickets are too expensive, but it's not clear the data supports the claim.

Cross country costs are rising there too.  I never thought I'd pay $20.00 for a trail pass, but that's now the norm for a quality xc ski area.  Places like Rikert that have installed serious snowmaking, I wonder how that will impact trail fees.  The equipment is now way more expensive too: you can pay $700.00 for top of the line skis, before adding bindings and getting a stone grind.  If you're gonna race, the wax costs more than crack.