Hurricane Irene to threaten Northeast

Jason, Suds, any other resident weatherfolk... what do you think?

Reuters:  Powerful Hurricane Irene battered the Bahamas on Wednesday on a track to the North Carolina coast that forecasters say could threaten the densely populated U.S. Northeast, including New York, starting on Sunday...

... forecasters see it hugging the U.S. eastern seaboard, swirling rains and winds across several hundred miles (km) as it churns northward toward New England. The forecast track indicates Florida and Georgia will be spared.

"The exact center of the storm may actually stay pretty close to the coastline during the day on Saturday and then become a big threat for New England and perhaps Long Island toward 96 to 100 hours out on Sunday," National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said.

"Be advised, it's going to be a very large circulation as it moves north of the Carolinas," he told a conference call.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered the state's Office of Emergency Management to prepare for possible impact from Irene. Cuomo said coastal zones were most at risk, although inland areas could get hit by heavy rainfall and strong winds.

Insurers kept a nervous watch in case Irene threatened wealthy enclaves such as the Hamptons, an eastern Long Island playground for New York's rich.

Forecasters have warned that even if the center of the hurricane stays offshore as it tracks up the mid-Atlantic coast from the weekend, its wide, swirling bands could lash cities including Washington and New York with winds and rain, knock out power, trigger coastal storm surges and cause flooding.

"We're not paying attention just to the eye of the storm. We're looking at how wide it is, how large it is," Virginia Emergency Management Department spokesperson Laura Southard said, advising residents to prepare.

Full Reuters Story

as of now, zero impact to the dacks and maybe some heavy rain for the whites...the media loves to hype the hell out of theses systems..

just remember big bad katrina..very little of damage was because of wind or heavy rain...it was a massive engineering failure..poorly designed levies caused all the problems..

Jason, seems like people are getting more and more worried about this storm, Local weather is starting to get weird saying maybe 8-10" of rain.  Do you have any ideas of adirondack rain fall?

Is it bad to hope for some new slides in the adks from the incoming storm?

I'd also like to hear Jason's call on rain and wind.

I know Matt has done work around the creeping slide in Keene Valley, would like to get his input too.  The people on the slopes of Little Porter must be uneasy.

More slides seem inevitable if 10 inches of rain fall.

The 5 day rainfall map is ominous especially for New York City and NJ:



Hurricane watches are up for the five boroughs, southern CT and all of Long Island.

i still have a bad taste in my mouth from hurricane Gloria in 1985..they were predicting total destruction..it was total b.s

that said, there could be some significant flooding and power outages..

this is from the latest NWS update

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALSYES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS ENCOUNTERING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT
CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTING TOWARD THE HURRICANE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING

the media is doing another bang up job at reporting the truth

I'm no weather expect but if an Oobleck like this was headed my way, I'd be a little concerned:

Irene from space:



Hurricane Irene

High above the Earth from aboard the International Space Station, astronaut Ron Garan snapped this image of Hurricane Irene as it passed over the Caribbean on Aug. 22, 2011...
Image Credit: NASA

That's a beautiful photo SBR, thanks for posting.

The rainfall prediction for the storm has changed little from the one I posted above.

Warnings and watches are up from NWS Albany:



It only seems proper to post the same map for NWS New York:



We're just to the west of the hurricane warning area with 8-10 inches of rain predicted.  

For us this looks a lot like Floyd. I measured 8 inches of rain in 10 hours in our back yard and flooding was extensive.

I'm optimistic and hopeful that we'll be ok, based on that experience.

Obviously lower amounts of rain in the mountain, both Cats and Daks, can be equally dangerous. With steep terrain, flashflooding can move in very fast and mudslides are a real possibility.

Be safe.

as of 930am..current wind where Irene made land fall is 50mph...
the media hype is too much

Jason - is the NWS call on rainfall overblown? (Hope so).

Here the forecast is for 8-9 inches.

the threat for heavy rain exists..but the amounts might be over done..

this a site with all the current ob's in the the hatteras area...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

I just dumped 3 1/2 inches out of the rain gauge before heading over to work to check status of building. Winds seem like 30 mph with 50 mph gusts. Just a guess.

Our company is in an old bank building (1905) that has a flat roof and two pumps in the basement that are critical to keeping our entire network dry. (Don't ask why the network is in the basement).

Plus there is one other drain, in a low spot outside the side door. It works great unless it gets jammed up with leaves. It was jammed when I got there at 11pm and water was pouring under/through the side door.

I got that cleared and things were ok when I left, but if the power goes out, we are toast.

Roof seems to be holding nicely, knock wood.

Tornado watch just got extended to 5am.

Flashlights, candles ready, fingers crossed.  Best to everyone.

Looks like another 3 inches over night and some howling winds now.  Amazing that we only some a few brief power outages, so far.

Last night before Zelda and I crashed we signed up for some service on our cells that would text us is a tornado warning (vs watch) was issued.  She wanted to sleep in the basement, but Neve was asleep and I didn't want to wake her up and freak her out.  Plus hey, I didn't want to sleep in the basement...



Looks like the mountains are fully involved in the storm now. Hows it going up there?

Back to the office to check out the pumps and drains.

So here is my big gripe.  My hubby and I have elderly widowed moms that live alone fairly far away from us so that to pop in and help them out is very difficult.  Neither will leave their homes to come live near us. Both of them get so cranked up and worried about these storms that by the time the weather hits they are both sobbing in fear.  I seriously question the overblown 24/7 reporting about the severity of these storms.  I just heard for the 5th time today on the news…Well it’s not as bad as we thought but it still could be really dangerous…

It is really unethical to over report these storms.  It unnecessarily burdens old folks who live in fear that they will literally die alone in the storm.  It is simply cruel. When the big storm really does hit we are all going to remember the exaggerations and not heed the legitimate warnings.

I’m just mad today because I hate to hear my old moms so terribly upset.  It stresses them, negatively impacts their health, and compounds their fears of being old and helpless.

Roxbury NY:



...and a photo from Windham NY.

BigDogMom wrote

So here is my big gripe.  My hubby and I have elderly widowed moms that live alone fairly far away from us so that to pop in and help them out is very difficult.  Neither will leave their homes to come live near us. Both of them get so cranked up and worried about these storms that by the time the weather hits they are both sobbing in fear.  I seriously question the overblown 24/7 reporting about the severity of these storms.  I just heard for the 5th time today on the news…Well it’s not as bad as we thought but it still could be really dangerous…

It is really unethical to over report these storms.  It unnecessarily burdens old folks who live in fear that they will literally die alone in the storm.  It is simply cruel. When the big storm really does hit we are all going to remember the exaggerations and not heed the legitimate warnings.

I’m just mad today because I hate to hear my old moms so terribly upset.  It stresses them, negatively impacts their health, and compounds their fears of being old and helpless.

I agreed with you until I ventured out today ... all morning, I was saying that this wasn't that bad. I lost power for about 8 or 9 hours and had a lot of water in a "low spot" in my back yard, but other than that, the winds seemed to be relatively light where I live (Rockland County, NY), and there appeared to be little damage. Then, we decided to try to head up to Lake Placid at around 2:00, which was something we had already planned to do before the storm was an issue.

As we found out, and probably everyone has heard since, the Thruway was closed from Albany down to the Tappan Zee Bridge. We tried to go through Northern NJ via Route 17 and were turned back due to flooding. Then, we tried via 9W and made it as far as Newburgh, NY before we were turned back. Some of the flooding we saw was absolutely unbelievable. Route 9W was really ripped up and washed out in a lot of spots.

This may not have been the most destructive hurricane in terms of downed trees and blown out windows, but the flooding that was caused was pretty catastrophic in some areas. Depending on where you live, it was pretty bad. I guess that since the Katrina debacle, the government (local, state and federal) just has to err on the side of caution to avoid being blamed for NOT providing adequate warning.

The media, on the other hand, just loves to sensationalize everything. Some of the reporting on CNN that I watched yesterday was just ridiculous. I really think they "stage" a lot of their reports, just to make things seem more sensational than they really are. The best bet is probably to avoid watching the news reports, and just listen to what government officials are saying.

@ Face4Me.  We told both moms to turn off the TV and both said they HAD to see what was going to happen to them.  Geeze!  No doubt this was a serious storm but the hype really rattles the folks who live alone with limited mobility.  Next time we are faced with a similar situation, both moms have to agree to come stay with us, a neighbor or go to a shelter.  I took a ride tonight and I’m frankly surprised I never lost power today considering all the downed trees.

Interesting theme on Twitter tonight... people in rural areas concerned, disappointed, upset about the lack of major media coverage on rural areas, especially the hardest hit... Catskills and Vermont.

@BigDogMom: I might have agreed with you until I saw all the reports of flooding last night. Now... perhaps not enough warning about flooding was given to those in NH and VT that are completely washed out. Thus the problem: under report or over report? Over reporting might raise the nerves a bit but under reporting could result in people getting hurt or killed that might otherwise have protected themselves. Or perhaps people that are now isolated from help might not have gotten food and emergency items. Perhaps some didn't get those things because we were only going to have a Tropical Storm in NNE?

I don't think there will ever be a problem with people being under prepared due to a "boy cried wolf" scenario. More often than not, the vast majority of weather reporting is over the top compared to what people experience. But it still sends people to the grocery stores time and time again.

Txt from Laszlo at Plattekill:

"Family is safe. It's a war zone."