Long Range Forecasting Winter 2013-2014

This is the earliest winter forecast I have ever seen. Thanks to Laszlo of Plattekill for forwarding it to me.

Not sure what WeatherAdvance is really, but here's an optimistic outlook. Have to admit if they knew how to spell "below" that would inspire more confidence:

It will be colder than average in the Eastern half of the United States, With the exception of January where I believe we will see a mild January thaw in the east, However no where near the state that we had the 2005-2006 winter. Winter Will get off to an early start in the east, picking up where it left off this past winter late in the year. Fizzle away as we head into January and then come back on near the Mid-Point in February, where I think the brunt of the winter will be.

The winter battle zone will be a tricky one though. Right now it extends along the coast in the northeast, southeast of the Big cities, into north and south Carolina, northern Georgia, Tennessee and including Oklahoma. However even a slight change in the weather pattern can cause that area to be shifted north and west and you may be in the area again this year of the slop storms, or just plain rain.



See more at: http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/

wow bellow avg snowfall for the Gulf States...duh..

(Early) Winter Outlook from Darrin at ilsnow.com:

Early August is very early to stick one’s neck out on a winter seasonal outlook. However, I believe there is potential to have a winter on par with the five snowiest winters in the past 15 years at Indian Lake:

2002-03: 152.8″
2000-01: 140.2″
2007-08: 132.9″
2008-09: 124.1″
2010-11: 120.5″

Out of those top-5 winters, only 2002-03 had both PDO+ and North Atlantic Tripole on October 1st. That was an awesome winter! Winter came on like gangbusters in November and December and carried on well into spring with record snow and cold into April. It would be foolish to predict an exact replica for 2013-14, but there is reason to get excited! If the Vegas odds makers would place the over/under for Indian Lake snowfall at 115″ this winter, which is near the average, I’d take the “over” in a New York minute.

Of course, we’ll have to monitor the spread of Eurasian snow cover in October to see whether the weather matches the theory. But hope in August is a GOOD THING. :)

Full Story here:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2013/08/05/adirondack-winter-outlook-2013-14/

Wow, really going out on the ledge there suggesting a January thaw. Not like we don't get one of those EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

JasonWx wrote

wow bellow avg snowfall for the Gulf States...duh..

If the average for Key West is say ZERO, could snowfall ever be below average?  I guess if it snowed once in a billion years there, even just a trace, that would solve the problem.

I'm in the winter battle zone and ready...bring it on!!

I am in the much above average zone, so this is the forecast I will believe!
gr

FKNA.

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/2013-2014-northeast-winter-outlook/

Harvey wrote

FKNA.

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/2013-2014-northeast-winter-outlook/

I thought this was kind of lame. His bottom line was: it might be an average winter, or it might not.

Not a lot of insight, there. It was nice to compare the ENSO States to previous years, but as his own graphs show, there's not a lot of correlation between ENSO state and Eastern Snowfall (and even less correlation when looking at current conditions).

I like hutz for closer range forecasts and love him for upslope predictions most forecasters miss, but I thought this effort was kind of lame (although he implies at the beginning that Greg talked him into it).

Hey it was a long range forecast, I learned something:

• The ENSO is the most reliable long range indicator

• It's not that reliable a predictor of Northeast snow outcomes

• The NAO if too negative is bad (I kind of thought this was true, but nice to have it confirmed)

• What is best for NoVT isn't always the best for all, like a weak but negative NAO. Farther south stronger is better.

I still have no clue what the ENSO is, but for ADD me that's a pretty good.  

I too was surprised to see a long range from Lionel.

Here's the long range from a well respected Meteorology professor and forecaster in Utah .

Utah expert weighs in on seasonal snowfall forecast

I've known Dr. Jim Steenburgh for over ten years. He is obsessed with skiing deep powder and improving our ability to forecast and understand the atmosphere. His credibility and experience are second to none, so when he speaks, I listen. Recently he penned a post about the forecast for the upcoming season in Utah, and here's his opening:

"
Will this be a below average, average, or above average snow year in the Wasatch Range?  We're sure you can find someone who will give you an answer.  
Here's what [I] concluded:
WE HAVE NO IDEA!"

I've thought for a while that long range forecasts are BS. I read somewhere that anything more than 7 days out, you're better off going with temp and precip averages for that day than with the long range forecasts offered by the NWS - they actually do worse than the dumb luck probability would predict.

It would be nice to see an end to wild preseason speculation, but I suppose it drives traffic and gives people something to talk about.

Harvey wrote

• The ENSO is the most reliable long range indicator

• It's not that reliable a predictor of Northeast snow outcomes

These two points being pretty close to contradictory was enough to make me ask myself why I was bothering to read that post.

mattchuck2 wrote

Harvey wrote

• The ENSO is the most reliable long range indicator

• It's not that reliable a predictor of Northeast snow outcomes

These two points being pretty close to contradictory was enough to make me ask myself why I was bothering to read that post.

I think what LH was trying to say was that the ENSO is "easiest" to predict how it will behave 3 months out. But that fact doesn't really help much with predicting snow in the northeast as the ENSO isn't that important for us.

I do think the NAO is key but it seems that even a few weeks out it's really hard to predict.  Sometimes you get this... "it's going to get cold... not yet not yet not yet, then finally."