Market's gonna tank, how do i get in on contrafund

billyymc wrote

Infrastructure and inflation. That's what drove the markets this week. Trump's policies, what is known of them, will benefit infrastructure stocks through spending which will drive inflation which will benefit banks. Those stocks make up a big component of the DJIA which is what went up the most. S&P went up but by less % than the DJIA, and NASDAQ went down quite a bit.

The huge jump is probably premature until more is known, but that's BAU for the markets. Jump first, then look.

This guy is smart.

I will add that Trump's tax cuts will also be inflationary.

Harvey wrote

I know that was the conventional wisdom, but it was basically a 1500 point swing

Actually it wasn't Harv. The futures market is NOT the stock market. It's always been subject to much more vicious and wild swings than the actual stock market. Granted the DJIA did open up quite a bit lower after the election, but nowhere near what the futures were down the night before. Futures markets are thinner, pretty much only big big players are in there, and they probably could literally move the market limit up or down at will when something like this happens.

Futures normally are a decent predictor of the actual stock movement - but not in this case. Sometimes they become disconnected and that's what happened.

I'm not pretending to know Billy that's why I asked. One thing I just learned in doing a little research on it is that the Futures Market has much lower volume so it can be much more volatile than the actual stock market. Thanks for the input I appreciate it

Edit wait I thought on opening the market was actually much higher?

Another theory I heard was that most of the Futures Trading happens early in the night and that it was down based on the anticipation that Hillary was going to win. When Trump won the next day that impacted the market. I don't know

mattchuck2 wrote

I will add that Trump's tax cuts will also be inflationary.

well of course - inflation is almost nil right now and deflation is a serious concern.  When the economy grows and workers have the power to ask for pay raises that is that is inflationary and what we hope happens.  Another big component of inflation tends to be energy and material prices. Energy prices are going to go down under Trump because he is going to build Keystone XL and the other pipelines and stop these stupid protests as well as making it easier to drill  and produce energy.  The energy companies have gone down in the market in the past week expecting this to happen.  On the materials side I expect that steel and other raw materials like gravel and other construction aggregates are going to go up with the infrastructure building that Trump is going to do.  Overall we will see some increase in interest ratesbut the energy lower prices will offset some of it.  Interest rates are so historically low that if the economy grows they have to go up somewhat

Some moves I've made in the market recently are to sell Amazon - Bezos is openly anti trump and used the Washington Post that he owns to attack him.  He put 22 reporters digging dirt up on Trump and none on Clinton's issues.  More restrictive trade is not good for Amazon and they are spending way too much on building a shipping and grocery store footprint to maintain profits.  Bought VMC and EME construction materials firms.  Considering buying CAT but have not pulled the trigger yet.

Coach predicts!!!

Come on Coach it would be awesome!  I want two threads:

Coach Predict's
Coach's Investment Picks

In that second thread you post the price when you buy and when you sell!

Coach! Coach! Coach! Coach!

Coach Z wrote

Trump... is going to build Keystone XL and the other pipelines and stop these stupid protests as well as making it easier to drill  and produce energy.

Coach predicts correctly!

http://m.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/trump-signs-executive-orders-keystone-and-dakota-access

Some moves I've made in the market recently are to sell Amazon - Bezos is openly anti trump and used the Washington Post that he owns to attack him.  He put 22 reporters digging dirt up on Trump and none on Clinton's issues.  More restrictive trade is not good for Amazon and they are spending way too much on building a shipping and grocery store footprint to maintain profits.

Coach predicts poorly:

If Twitter could make some money...god knows Trump is inadvertently promoting it.

Although I don't think we need these projects, Trump will force the builders to use US labor and US steel which will put steel workers back to work. Labor unions are now supporting Trump based on this, TPP and NAFTA.

PeeTex wrote

Although I don't think we need these projects, Trump will force the builders to use US labor and US steel which will put steel workers back to work. Labor unions are now supporting Trump based on this, TPP and NAFTA.

Some Labor unions.

Also, most construction jobs have "buy American" provisions. And the jobs created with these two projects are insignificant compared to the size of the U.S. Economy.

Also, the bad part isn't that "we don't need" the projects. It's that it will facilitate the burning of really dirty oil originating from Alberta oil sands. It's that it has the potential to disrupt clean water supplies in sovereign Native American Land. It's that we can put many more people to work installing wind turbines or solar thermal systems.

mattchuck2 wrote

PeeTex wrote

Although I don't think we need these projects, Trump will force the builders to use US labor and US steel which will put steel workers back to work. Labor unions are now supporting Trump based on this, TPP and NAFTA.

Some Labor unions.

Also, most construction jobs have "buy American" provisions. And the jobs created with these two projects are insignificant compared to the size of the U.S. Economy.

Also, the bad part isn't that "we don't need" the projects. It's that it will facilitate the burning of really dirty oil originating from Alberta oil sands. It's that it has the potential to disrupt clean water supplies in sovereign Native American Land. It's that we can put many more people to work installing wind turbines or solar thermal systems.

Most government construction jobs, not those in private enterprise and these are not government projects they just require government permits.

Stopping the pipeline doesn't stop anything except for the dangerous oil trains that can cause much more damage in the case of an accident than a pipeline. We will put more people to work building wind turbines and solar thermal when those things become cost effective to do so but that does not really effect our demand for oil. Cars, Trains and Airplanes require oil to run (electric cars still don't work for the general public as the market has now shown us). Wind, Solar Thermal & Nucs will help eliminate the need for natural gas & coal (only 1% of our electricity is generated from oil), only when electricity is really cheap (almost free) will we make a dent in the use of oil - and its only about 15% of our oil usage which is used to heat homes. Currently the distribution costs of electricity is about half or more the cost you pay the utility and free electricity does not change that. 50% of the oil is used for our cars, and that just keeps going up. Until we are willing to give up our cars and plane trips will this change. So why did you fly to Tahoe just so you could burn more jet fuel, gasoline and electricity... You want to reduce the fossil fuel usage - lead the way, stay home.

God, you're exhausting.

We have to reduce oil use in cars, huh? Well the guy you just enabled is really leading the way on that front:

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/1/23/14356652/trump-epa-regulations

Trump’s team intends to go after many of these rules. Jonathan Swan of Axios got a look at an “agency action” plan that Trump’s advisers have written up for the EPA. Among the initiatives they plan to target: “Clean Air Act greenhouse gas regulations for new (NSPS) and existing (ESPS or the 'Clean Power' Plan) coal and natural gas power plants … [CAFE] Standards … Clean Water Section 404: Waters of the U.S. Rule (wetlands) … TMDL (Total Maximum Daily Load) for Chesapeake Bay.”

If we didn't just elect a narcissistic Russian ally who appointed an Exxon-Mobil Secretary of State, maybe we'd be more easily able to transition to hybrids and pure electric cars. But, emails.

And thanks for telling me I can't fly across the country to visit my brother, you colossal prick.

mattchuck2 wrote

you colossal prick.

True to your standard MO, you always revert to name calling.

Haha. Yeah, you never do that.

What about those CAFE standards, though? You like the direction Trump is headed with regards to the environment? This is what you supported, right?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/06/business/dealbook/sorkin-seth-klarman-trump-investors.html

I think PeeTex's point is relevant and worthy of discussion. He wasn't saying that you can't visit your family Matt, he's just pointing out that until we give up our American car culture we aren't going to giving up oil anytime soon. that's reality. A reality that most extreme lefties (that enjoy the use of their automobiles) won't actually recognize yet.

But bro.....I drive a Prius! Bahaha!

While we can in urban and suburban areas take measures to make it easier to live without a car, or discourage driving when there are better and more sustainable ways to get around (think highway tolls, congestion pricing, and increased public transit options), many of which are already being done, there's no way that's going to work in a rural area such as where I go to school.  You need a car to live here if you want any hope of getting anywhere out of walking distance, and no you're not telling me to stop driving to Whiteface every weekend.  

I made a google earth map a while ago that showed expanded subway and commuter rail routes in and around NYC that would make it a lot easier to get around all the areas without a car.  Things like this are the best way to reduce pollution from automobiles because the local population is already used to using public transportation at least occasionally, and will chose to drive less if there are other options available to them.  Simply telling people not to travel at all is just not going to sit well.

This thread cracks me up

I too thought that Trump would tank the market and set my portfolio up for that the morning after the election and then a funny thing happened and it went up and kept going.  I corrected my error that day and its been off the races ever since.

Again, to equal the stock market success under Obama, Trump would have to oversee the Dow going to about 50,000. Obama helped you more than Trump will, bro. Maybe you should thank him.

raisingarizona wrote

I think PeeTex's point is relevant and worthy of discussion. He wasn't saying that you can't visit your family Matt, he's just pointing out that until we give up our American car culture we aren't going to giving up oil anytime soon. that's reality. A reality that most extreme lefties (that enjoy the use of their automobiles) won't actually recognize yet.

But bro.....I drive a Prius! Bahaha!

Do some research, bud. Jimmy Carter increased CAFE standards to require car companies to make more fuel efficient cars. Reagan got in and destroyed those rules. 30 years later, Obama tried to do the same thing, now Trump is going to undo that.

Other countries are doing a pretty good job of using cars that use less fuel or no fuel. Not this one, though. Weird what happens when one party is entirely beholden to the will of energy and oil companies.