Storm Speculation: 1/18/11

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PAINTING VERY DIFFERENT PICTURES FOR OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS TAKES THE STORM TO OUR WEST AND THE ECMWF TO OUR EAST WITH A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 475 MILES BETWEEN THE LOW CENTERS 00Z/WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WESTWARD WITH ITS LOW WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO TRENDING TO THE WEST WITH ITS LOW. THE GFSENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

WITH SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE EXTENDED GRIDS WHICH FAVORS A COLDER SCENARIO. PLEASE REFER TO THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION (PMDEPD) FOR THEIR INSIGHT. AT THIS TIME THINKING IS SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARMING AIR WORKING IN TUESDAY RESULTING IN A CHANGE IN P-TYPE ESPECIALLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH A CHANGEOVER BACK TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

some thing to look at over the weekend...

This one is going to be a close call.. A low will drop out of the mid west and die in the Ohio valley. A new low will form by the Virgina tidewater. Unfortunately we will be running out of cold air. As of now it looks like the Mountains should be able to hold on to frozen precip for most of this event. I wouldn't be surprised to see a change over towards the end..Either way it's not a very wet system so damage , if any, should be light...

Any chance the mountains will stay mostly frozen?  

I like the position of that coastal low. Stronger the better.

Watches are up:



Seems like NWS is starting believe there will be enough cold air in the mountains for a positive result.

Driving to the mtns may be a different story.

This is starting to get like landing plans at O'hare.  Seems like the long term has more potential.

last night 0z was colder..things are looking up for the mountains...

Hey Jason,
I haven't been watching the weather back home (but heard it has been cold) and wondering if this storm hitting us out here in Colorado has any effect on back east.  Will we be able to land in Albany tomorrow night at 11:40?  If not I have to get my A Basin tickets for tomorrow.

P.S. I just heard Loveland Pass recorded a wind gust at 99 MPH and 85 MPH at Breck...Chris was it that bad?

Jason, would you please be my personal weatherman?  

I want to ski Gore on 1/18.  Do you think I can get there for first tracks and be back to Saratoga Springs by 2:30 before the ice coats the roads?

ski2moro ... Jason has been unavoidably delayed in the last 12 hours.

My totally uneducated guess it that if you head up now and leave at lunch time you will be driving in snow, not on ice.



PDQ looks like Friday's event may deserve it own thread (I hope!).

ski2 , harv's advice is good...road conditions should be ok. i still think there will be a change to sleet up at gore..

Friday's event as of now will need a new thread..NAM is looking sick..GFS is a little faster and not as intense and moist. I'm sure they will be flip-flopping over the next couple of days..

Suds..Looks like the weather should hold off at ALB until 12z on Friday..Timing is tough this far out... Precip should end later in the day on Tuesday from the current system

JasonWx wrote

ski2 , harv's advice is good...road conditions should be ok. i still think there will be a change to sleet up at gore..

Friday's event as of now will need a new thread..NAM is looking sick..GFS is a little faster and not as intense and moist. I'm sure they will be flip-flopping over the next couple of days..

Suds..Looks like the weather should hold off at ALB until 12z on Friday..Timing is tough this far out... Precip should end later in the day on Tuesday from the current system

 
Greetings from Chicaco...Albany Airport Closed and we didn't get to ski today...had we known ahead of time we would have stayed in Colorado and skied Loveland with Jamesdeluxe...hopefully we'll get home tomorrow...I want to get some of that Gore Pow!

yikes sorry....