Storm Speculation: 1/25/13

I can't imagine a clipper bringing these totals, but there is enough chatter out there to IMO warrant a StormSpec thread..

not really a clipper..more of a stable wave that is coming out of the Tennessee Valley..
also some of those totals are lake effect..
still needs to be watched, could be interesting for the Cats..

LE cranked up last night. Warnings out around the Tug. SR could be in play for tomorrow or Weds

They only caught a little of it last night, but the current warnings indicate in could be in play

ALLEGANY COUNTY...
   RUSHFORD               1.4   630 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
   1 N LITTLE VALLEY      8.0   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   1 ENE RANDOLPH         3.0   730 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE    3.0   730 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   5 N ALLEGANY           2.3   700 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE    2.0   700 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
   FAIR HAVEN            18.0   700 AM  1/21  HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT
   3 NE IRA               4.0   700 AM  1/21  HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
   4 SSW RIPLEY           6.8   723 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   NE KENNEDY             2.1   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS

...ERIE COUNTY...
   2 SE GLENWOOD          2.5   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   1 W COLDEN             1.9   730 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 S WALES              1.5   700 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 NE BOSTON            1.0   730 AM  1/21  COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...
   1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE    5.0   500 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   HIGHMARKET             4.5   413 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   1 NE LOWVILLE          1.5   700 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
   W FULTON              18.0   440 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   2 SSE PALERMO         15.3   600 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   7 NNE PHOENIX         15.2   600 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   PALERMO               15.0   618 AM  1/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SE MINETTO             8.4   800 AM  1/21  COCORAHS
   4 SSW MEXICO           4.2   845 AM  1/21  COCORAHS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   5 N WOLCOTT            8.0   700 AM  1/21  HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT

...WYOMING COUNTY...
   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     2.5   600 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   6 SW WARSAW            2.5   700 AM  1/21  CO-OP OBSERVER

skimore... What's the closest of those weather stations to Snow Ridge?

LONG TERM from KALB: THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MOS guidance.  Not much change from earlier thinking.  Thursday begins with high pressure eventually giving way to low pressure developing off the lee of the rockies.  Plentiful sunshine thursday will translate to overcast skies friday and potentially significant snowfall.  The storm will be a quick mover...Though...With the system off of nova scotia sunday morning.

 1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE    5.0   500 AM  1/21  COCORAHS

probably about 3 miles  s of SR

The Ridge is between Boonville to the south and Lowville to north

Boonville
ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
  ADDITIONAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
  PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

Lowville
ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 5 TO 10 INCHES
  TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

Were due for a repeat of 07 where it snowed LE for 3 days

Holiday Valley, Ellicottville, calling for over a foot over the next several days, LE.

This needs to come east more

SNOWFALL RATES OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR...WITH SOME
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY SEEING RATES UP TO 5 INCHES PER
HOUR...WILL IMPACT THE SANDY
CREEK...REDFIELD...OSCEOLA...ALTMAR...PARISH...PULASKI AND
WILLIAMSTOWN AREAS THROUGH 10 AM.

seems like the snow outlooks are being ramped down for areas to the east at least

Looking at the long range forecast, the only snow Gore will get over the next week will come out of the Hudson River.

DackerDan wrote

Looking at the long range forecast, the only snow Gore will get over the next week will come out of the Hudson River.

 Followed by a mid-week warm-up.

+1..
this is were i usually say head West, but it sucks out there too

Adk Jeff wrote

DackerDan wrote

Looking at the long range forecast, the only snow Gore will get over the next week will come out of the Hudson River.

 Followed by a mid-week warm-up.

I don't see the warm up on the LT forecast.  When is that supposed to happen and how warm are we talking about.  Looks to still be snow making weather.

I'm headed to Jay in a few weeks for a Instructors trees clinic so I just checked their web site.  I was shocked to see that they got 2 feet over the past week and the glades are all pretty much back in play.  They seem to get Lake Huron lake effect that only hits them.

If you believe the GFS..168hrs on we burn up and rain...

JasonWx wrote

If you believe the GFS..168hrs on we burn up and rain...

Blowtorch + gully washer

Jamesdeluxe wrote

JasonWx wrote

If you believe the GFS..168hrs on we burn up and rain...

Blowtorch + gully washer

Is that like changing "Rated X" to "NC-17" ?

Coach Z wrote

I don't see the warm up on the LT forecast.  When is that supposed to happen and how warm are we talking about.  Looks to still be snow making weather.

Darrin Harr, yesterday.  I assume he's looking at the same data as Jason.
Extended Outlook:
A significant warm-up will occur next week as the present Arctic siege departs. Whether that warm-up enters the dreaded “Thaw” stage by Wednesday is not yet certain. Looking past that, colder weather will return before the end January and re-establish a good foot hold by early February. No big snows are on the immediate horizon, but we only need one good storm to get things to mid-winter prime.