Storm Speculation: 11/27/14

For some reason I can't cut and paste what I wanted out of the NWS forecast discussion.

But I have heard talk, of a coastal low.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK.

THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

IT HAS THE LOW GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.

MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST NORTH AND EAST.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

Watch area has grown.

PowderAssassin is in the wheelhouse on this one.



I think he owes us a TR.

This really hasn't changed much. Where's anybody skiing on Thurs or Friday?  K?

I don't have a lot of confidence in this one.  I think the only skiing I'll be doing is some local XC.

I'd be pumped if it was enough to open 4H and Old Faithful at Garnet Hill.

Or maybe Belle.

Kinda cool for Gore skiers than Northern Warren was upgraded (lol) to a Winter Storm Warning.

Platte looks good too.

^ That pink extrusion is a little disturbing.

I hear this storm has been named Cato. It brings Inspector Clouseau to mind: "not now Cato, you fool!"

5" on the deck in Wilton
3" on open grass

Really almost everyone getting in on this.

Got 7" and counting on my deck's fence posts at the Warren-Essex County line due north or Gore.

Looking good for Friday, especially since all the snow was gone from the north side yesterday.

Bands of heavier snowfall set up a couple hrs ago. One's touching Gore area. Looks to drift right on over Gore. Per WTEN.

looks like gore getting crushed!

It does appear so. Looks Plattyish too.  Zelda looked and called wheelhouse.

Not to derail the NY snow stoke but can anyone explain the anomalous no-snow hole in NoVt, as shown above? Clearly it is proof positive that Jay Peak gets no snow and always has boilerplate ice.

I think that Jay is far from the source of the radar. (BTV?)
And this is a somewhat southerly track and
The part of Jay that will get more snow than the surrounding area is too small to see on radar.

I believe that Jay Peak will get more than it "deserves" considering it so far from the storm.