Storm Speculation: 11/28/12

Was playing around on the Weather Page and it looks like the GFS has something for next Weds...



Also looks like there is zero model consensus, and it could be a warm event... but you got to be in it to win it.

NWS Albany Long Term:

A sfc wave would eject out of the lower and cntrl ms river Valley...And head into the ohio valley...And great lakes region by Nightfall.  Most of fcst area would be on the warm side of the system with mostly rain...Except for some snow on the onset...And for the nrn zones.  

The ecmwf is drastically different with a complete miss...As the srn stream sfc wave stays south tue-tue night with the mid level trough amplifying too much.

The hpc guidance looks closer to the gefs ensemble mean...With a cold front hanging Just west of the region with a sfc low moving northeast from the tn Valley on tuesday. Thermal profiles would indicate a predominate rain ptype tue...From the capital region south...And then a transition to snow tue night into wed with the wave redeveloping near srn new england...As the primary wave falls apart over the ern Great Lakes region.

models are all over the place with this one..lets hope the latest gfs is correct..it has the low off the coast...time will tell

EURO says what storm...I tend to agree.

the eruo has been consistent in it's handling of the low..or as you correctly put it "what low"

Basically I look at the GFS, because I know where to find it. Jason, Noreaster, anybody... where's the equivalent NAM and EURO for this:



What model is likely to be the most conservative? Or do they each go on accuracy or inaccuracy "streaks?"

this is the euro for tues 7pm....NAM only goes out 84hrs

Jason... can you post or PM me the link to the Euro loop?

To be fair and balanced here's the only frame of the Euro that even hints at a low...



FYI the Euro is now linked on the homepage and Weather page:

Here you go Harvey:

http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm

Thats good for the ETA, GFS, and NAM.  Euro snowfall graphics can be found on weather underground.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Harv, you gotta stop posting these storms so far out.  Not only do I believe it jinx's them, it really has a negative effect on my work productivity.

I still haven't even come close to sliding down a slope yet.  I'm gettin' old, washed up.

Chris wrote

Harv, you gotta stop posting these storms so far out.  Not only do I believe it jinx's them, it really has a negative effect on my work productivity.

OK I'll leave the storm stoke/hype to someone else. We did get about 3 inches out of this one, but I didn't ski it.

nuking up here!

expecting 3-6 by Saturday morning!  

Guns a blazing too!

YES! YES!!

Yeah, new FIS report says that somewhere will probably get 6-8" before Saturday. Hope "somewhere" is in the Daks.