Storm Speculation: 12/17 - 12/20/12

OK I lied.  I will continue to post hypy-stoke.  This is barely on the GFS, and nowhere to be found on the Euro.

But I heard some guy talking about it.

fingers crossed for this weknd.

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Kid!  Thanks for the Weather Page props. All kinda fun stuff on that page - my pride an joy...


GFS 144 hr Snowfall Forecast

Jason! NorEaster, Suds, whoever...

Please feel free to post a storm speculation thread for Sunday-Tuesday if you think it's warranted.  NWS has a 40-50% chance for snow in the GRAPHICAL forecast (which in my experience is about as certain as the graphical gets this far out) but the extended discussion is pretty wishy washy.

you beat me to it,
on my way to work, but it starting to look good around here. starting next week , looks cold and snowy

Wish i had more time,
just looked at 0z Euro..if its right ,WATCH OUT!! not one but 2 significant snow storms..18th and 20th , this is a week away so everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt. more later

doesnt look like a very cold pattern....but (hopefully) cold enough to snow.  It does look active and thats always a good sign.

Good enough for me I broke it out.  Dates right?

Hope this turns out to be something---these dates work great for me


last day of muzzle loader season is 12/18---we need snow!!!

first day on snow for me will be 12/23---we need snow!!!

let's do this!!!

NWS Albany Forecast Discussion:

Looking ahead into next week...A rather high signal that a storm will impact the northeast. All available global models suggest a storm will develop across the southern conus and track northeast during the timeframe between late monday into tuesday night. The main piece of energy per the 1.5pvu trace was just south of the aleutian chain today. Global models are fairly similar with tracking this wave across the pacific northwest then diving into the southern plains. From here...they diverge significantly with phasing of the northern stream short wave across the northern mississippi river valley and the upper trough becoming negatively Tilted.

The ggem is the fastest with the capture while the ecmwf remains slower and stronger and the gfs somewhat in the middle. Per close coordination and discussions...We will continue with high chance pops /40-50 percent/ into early next week and hope the signal noise will settle down with future model runs. As confidence continues to increase...We will continue to highlight in the hwo at this time.

Weather from the Hill on Jay's web site is calling for a double barrelled set of noreasters

perfect timing - I'm taking my son to Jay for the ski splash and stay package next week for a xmas gift

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up.  But DAMN it would be nice to slap the skins on and make some fresh turns!

The new Euro, basically kills the system. Keeps it to far off the coast. Maybe eastern Maine will get some.

How about for the smaller system sunday/monday? Is that dead also? If not, how much for Whiteface?

right now it doesn't look like any thing significant..maybe things will change.

JasonWx wrote

The new Euro, basically kills the system. Keeps it to far off the coast. Maybe eastern Maine will get some.

which system is dead the 1st or the 2nd one?  Accuweather is showing the 2nd one later in the week hitting and Noaa is showing the first one hitting Sunday Monday

Models are having trouble picking a main system..might need to wait til sunday to get a fix on what's going to happen.

A trusted N.E. weather met just put up "at least" 4" for the Whites/Greens as an initial starting point. He's fairly conservative on making calls, so it looks pretty good to me for Monday if he's willing to go out on that limb already.

I know Riv isn't a big NWS fan, but they are also calling for a 50-60% chance of precip in NY Sunday and Monday which seems pretty far out to go for a percentage that high, so they must have some level of confidence too.

They are showing precip as mixed, but hey you have to be in it to win it.