Storm Speculation 12/29/16

Looks good for Maine. Not so good for NY.

As of now yes..The Dacks never do well with coastal lows..This system is waiting for energy from the west to form.
But it's all in the timing..

Winter Storm Watch in blue

NWS ALY

Peace offering for sno

Let there be snow

6-8 for Gore with a tad less for whiteface

Thanks man.  Here in Johnsburg it looks like we are on the border between a small amount and a nice amount.



NWS ALY:

Snow is expected to quickly develop from NW to NE across the area
Thursday morning into early afternoon with an initial surge of
isentropic lift and southerly flow aloft. Then, as the cyclone
rapidly intensifies along the New England coast late Thursday into
Thursday night, mesoscale banding appears likely along the west side
of the storm where strong frontogenesis is forecast to occur. Could
be a setup for a strong and potentially large band based on CSTAR
research. The location of this possible band of 2"+ per hour snowfall
rates is still in question this far out though. There are still some
model discrepancies, with the ECMWF and the NAM most aggressive with
heavy QPF from banding making into the north/central Taconics and
western New England. For this reason, a Winter Storm Watch has been
issued for Washington county, northern and central Taconics, all of
southern Vermont, the Berkshires and northern Litchfield counties.

A few to several inches of snow will be possible farther west, but
areas in the watch have a higher confidence for 6-12 inches of snow
with perhaps more if mesoscale banding sets up in this area. There
is still some guidance (GFS/CMC) showing the best F-Gen and banding
farther eastward into New England. Additional Winter Storm Watches
or eventually Advisories will likely be needed later in time for
the rest of the area as confidence increases, so will continue to
mention this potential in the HWO.

In case of nor'easter all lows should be off the coast.

ml242 wrote

In case of nor'easter all lows should be off the coast.

Unless you ski the Townships..Then you want that bad boy to cut across central Ct..

Still to early to pin point amounts..The winners will probably be NH and ME..
It's like trying to catch a falling knife...Dealing with a low that hasn't formed yet..

Scott B says the gradient is so tight, he thinking there's a chance it could skunk.  And he's talking about NoVt.

Still to him 6" is probably a skunk.  I'd smile wide for that 6 to 8.  

Harvey wrote

 I'd smile wide for that 6 to 8.  

Careful dude - this is a family site.

The greens from Stowe to Killington are all in line for 12 to 20 inches

GFS is showing a streak of heavy snow almost like a lake effect band on the last 2 runs that runs right over Gore....  saw a snow map on FB earlier that shows 6-12" in that band...  here's hoping!!!!

QPF from the NAM FOUS  18z
Has .60 for both BTV and ALB...   I would say 4-6 for Gore looks good using this data.. Still to early...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/fous/FOUS61

Too early? It's tomorrow... I like 6 to 8 for Gore

Harvey wrote

Still to him 6" is probably a skunk.  I'd smile wide for that 6 to 8.  

That's the word on the street. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

NorEaster27 wrote

Too early? It's tomorrow...

Seems that the potential for this storm to bomb is what is causing the storm watches.  What factors do forecasters use to predict bombogenesis, and how reliable (hard to predict) are they?  In a case like this it seems it won't happen until it happens, or not at all.  I can see that being a tough forecast even less than 24 hours out.

Doing squat down here in Dutchess County btw....

I'm up here in the what I call upnorthaland. My local buddie up here who really know the weather is telling me,this storm will drop a dusting to twelve inches.
These are words to live by.