Storm Speculation: 4/15/14

Nice to be able to start one of these for mid-April, especially considering Placid could see 70 on Monday.  Since I'm seeing more forecasts with snow for Tuesday I'll throw it out there for discussion.  Major cold front coming through Tuesday, with even the low elevations entering the snow forecast for Tuesday night (2-4), with the high peaks getting more (6-8).

Thoughts?

As this easy riding, no worries white guy frets over what's going to happen at his ski resort of choice for his kids April break (and we get closer to MC2 taking that long jump turn into the increasing snow melt)....I'm not seeing any forecast that doesn't have snow above the 1,000 to 1,500 ft level Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Timing of the eastward progress of the front could be key.  ECMWF seems to push the cold front through slower than the GFS.  The sooner it turns colder, the better chance for more snow?

Very tricky, these forecasts for April snows in amongst the 70 degree weather....BTW, what idiot was saying there wouldn't be 70 degree weather and potentially heavy rain in the next 10 days?  There are really some stupid f^*ks around here!

I heard some talk that the models don't accurately reflect the fact that it's April and such snowfall forecasts are notoriously unreliable. Where sometimes storms in the fall overdeliver because the models underestimate cold air that is unaccounted for, storms in the spring will underdeliver because models underestimate warm air that is unaccounted for.

That being said, I'm not done skiing yet, and I'd love to get some more snow!

It ain't happen'in.
I've had a robin charging my window all week - spring has sprung and there's no turning back. Wed will be cold but not that cold.

Hope your Robins are sitting on their eggs.  Snowing behind the front in places like 'Cuse, Utica, Watertown.  Looks like the front is getting closer to Saranac/Placid.  Any reports from the ground up there?  Don't think the snow will amount to more than a few inches, but hopefully it will stem the bleeding from the r*^n, and maybe drop a little more at elevation.

It's trying. I think it will be a wet snow which won't do much. Cat went out but didn't stay long. If it's going to be much of a snow she would have sniffed the air and turned back around and never gone out. The robin is a male so he's not a nest sitter, although he stopped banging into the window about noon. Mixed messages.