Storm Speculation - December 19-22

Let's do this. I'm sick of waiting.

CONTENTS DELETED

Your dead meat if this is just a prick tease

It's some sort of Ponzi scheme...  Matt's making lemonade out of the weather deal...

Models killed it...Houston We Have Problem...

mattchuck2 wrote

Let's do this. I'm sick of waiting.

Let's hope...  Waiting..  It's more than just the skiing, its the weather, the snow and seeing your friends who will not go when it's warm.  I am sure the West and Rockies are grinning about now.

In case you missed it ---http://nyskiblog.com/forums/#nabble-f2102421

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
NOT ONLY ELEVATE THE CAPPING INVERSION TO OVER 15K FT OVER BOTH
LAKES...BUT ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
LEND A LAYER OF OVER 3K FT WORTH OF PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. A
270-280 FLOW SHOULD DIRECT PLUMES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU...WITH THE
LATTER LIKELY INCLUDING SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING

SNOW FALL RATES WITHIN THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES/HR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 3 INCHES/HR OVER THE TUG WHERE
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FED BY A LONGER FETCH. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE HEARTS OF THE BANDS SO HAVE ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR BOTH AREAS.

THE ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ON
SATURDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL CROSS OUR REGION. A
280 TO 290 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT THE STEADIEST LAKE SNOWS SOUTH
OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK VALLEY...AND NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OFF LAKE ERIE WHILE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED
OVER THE TUG HILL.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM
 EST SUNDAY...

 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
 SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
 SUNDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
 PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

 * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
 OSWEGO COUNTY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST
 AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

 * TIMING...FROM EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
 MORNING.

 * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...7 TO 13 INCHES
 SATURDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS
 SUNDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST
 PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND 12 TO 15
 INCHES IN PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

 * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
 BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

 * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

 * IMPACTS...LOCALIZED BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING
 SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY.
 THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN CENTRAL SQUARE AND ADAMS

We've got the same probability of "fake effect" (Noah's word, not mine ) this w-end.  

If any of you want to score you better be on it, like fast.  It's going to be a big fat soggy sloppy mess within a day or so.

How far will the lake effect be? Wonder if Lake Champlain will cause an effect.....

R

The lake effect from Champlain will be minimal...It's also low density, and will not with stand the rain to follow...

Shucks, the cams at Killington - so hard... So expensive to make snow too.

R

HEY, IT'S SNOWING!!!! FKNA!!!!  

Go to Snowy Ridge in west NY possible 3 feet of lake effect by Sunday opening day should be fantastic!!!!!

Telemark Dave wrote

HEY, IT'S SNOWING!!!! FKNA!!!!  

Man, skis are in VT - maybe we will drive up then head West!

What mountain?

R

Three feet seems like a stretch.

Skiray wrote

R

Hey Ray, you want a signature?

Harvey wrote

Three feet seems like a stretch.

Skiray wrote

R

Hey Ray, you want a signature?

Sure.. I guess I should create on on my profile right?

It's a permission thing, for members in good standing. Done.

Heavy dusting here in CNY last night --- great tracking snow