The Weather Thread 10/11

It looks like today and tomorrow's event will not bring the snows that I anticipated. The low moves to central NE instead of the Gulf of Maine. So it looks more wet than white for the mountains. Maybe some light backlash snows Friday night and Saturday. Also the cold air is not as deep and the warm up next week is more pronounced.

It's still early Nov.

NWS synopsis on the weather wall:

http://www.nyskiblog.com/p/ny-weather.html

No question it has been a wet day.  Looks like there is some dynamic cooling going on and we are starting to get some snow in at higher elevations. I caught a glimpse of the Whiteface webcam before I  lost it and it looked like it was starting to change over. I'd be surprised if favored locations like Mansfield didn't get something real tonight.



This is when Twitter is a lot of fun for a working stiff like me.  All kinds of Tweeting going on today.  Some guys claimed to have a good day up high on Killington.

Our twitter widget is currently located near the top of the HR weather page:

http://www.nyskiblog.com/p/ny-weather.html

It's simple for me to retweet weather reports, so if you are into it, check it out.

Ah, that's so 'tweet. Thanks Harv

I drove through some mixed precip in Batavia and around the Mohawk / Herkimer area today, that's about it though. Nothing accumulating.

Herb Stevens, the Skiing Weatherman, came out with his 2010/2011 Winter Forecast in the last few days.  It's pretty dense, but here's his summary for the Northeast:

...The mid Atlantic will start on time, and the holidays look good from there in to the Northeast, but after the first of the year, a shift in the pattern to one dominated by "kitchen sink" storms with a variety of precip types will make conditions more variable.

Northern New York and northern New England should see above normal snowfall, but messy storms that result from a storm track from the Ohio Valley to Quebec will deliver other precip forms to the northern mountains from time to time, as well. Quebec province will stay north of those storm tracks and that should produce a fine season in eastern Canada.

Eventually, the cool air from the La Nina will overwhelm the pattern, which should result in a cooler than normal March and April, which bodes well for a long season...

NCP has been falling all day. It is now slightly intermingled with the frozen stuff. Bare ground starting to turn white. The deck, sidewalk and bbq has slush on them.

Exit 18, 465' elevation.

Hunter looks to be accumulating snow.
Hunter cams

what a waste..it will all be gone tomorrow

It has been fun watching the Hunter web cam today. Can't see squat on Kmart cams.

At this time of year this is what I pay the most attention to ... hoping for snowmaking temps:


6-10 day Temp Forecast


8-14 day Temp Forecast

These maps and more on the weather page:

http://www.nyskiblog.com/p/ny-weather.html

I go home, and it snows in Buffalo... I go back to Buffalo and it snows at home.
It's taunting me!

Looks pretty good for blowing snow.
I really hope they can get Topridge open


Those number would look a lot better if they said 100%

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST SAT NOV 20 2010


.LONG TERM ..

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THANKSGIVING. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...WITH A FASTER TRACK AND PRESSURE AS LOW AS 511HPA. ECMWF ROUGHLY 12HRS BEHIND WITH SPEED OF THIS LOW. ALSO NOT AS STRONG AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.

CHC OF SNOW AND RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

...TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE CREATING WET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF BLACK FRIDAY.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41907/biggest-great-lakes-snow-since.asp

Accuweather wrote

 
Following a quiet start to the lake-effect snow season, portions of the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast may get hit by a big round of snow starting on Thanksgiving. It could be the biggest outbreak of lake-effect snow since last winter.

Freaking lake effect. Pretty much everything west of Syracuse is supposed to get hammered with snow.

Any word on this Jason?

I mentioned it in yesterdays weather piece..last nights model runs don't have as much wind and cold air. so less LEC snow..

fujative wrote

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41907/biggest-great-lakes-snow-since.asp

Accuweather wrote

 
Following a quiet start to the lake-effect snow season, portions of the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast may get hit by a big round of snow starting on Thanksgiving. It could be the biggest outbreak of lake-effect snow since last winter.

Freaking lake effect. Pretty much everything west of Syracuse is supposed to get hammered with snow.

Any word on this Jason?

East of Lake O may be in play

fujative wrote

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41907/biggest-great-lakes-snow-since.asp

Accuweather wrote

 
It could be the biggest outbreak of lake-effect snow since last winter.

You mean it'll be more than that killer lake effect snow we had in August? Just the latest example of the Accuweather hype-machine...

SIAWOL wrote

Accuweather wrote

 
It could be the biggest outbreak of lake-effect snow since last winter.

You mean it'll be more than that killer lake effect snow we had in August? Just the latest example of the Accuweather hype-machine...

This just in ... tonight will be the biggest outbreak of darkness since last night.

I saw that quote and had to chuckle. Basically if it drops more than the inch the Catskills got last week, then the prediction verifies.

Quick Thanksgiving Day weather update..

Turkey day will start out partly cloudy and chilly, turning milder and cloudy as the day progresses. Moderate to Heavy Rain showers will move in overnight, the showers will turn to snow showers Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be cold and windy with light to moderate snow showers at times..

NWS is forecasting freezing rain for Thurs night and Friday..I just don't see it.. A straight cold front is not the weather scenario that produces freezing rain.

Quick update..clouds and drizzle will slowly clear, winds will increase from the west..

Weekend will be cold and breezy with snow showers.. first part of next week will be wet and warm. Followed by what looks like a prolonged and sustained cold spell..let's hope.

Now here's a forecast
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.78153250728974&lon=-121.81915283203125&site=otx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. South southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow. High near 10. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.