When the bleep is it going to get cold?

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Herb Stevens, the Skiing Weatherman's, winter preview was put out last week. It's not sounding great, but it's not all doom and gloom. Over the years, I've usually found his forecasts to be fairly accurate.

Here's a link to his 2011 Winter Preview:

http://www.snocountry.com/index.php/ski-news-and-links/skiing-weatherman/ski-weather-forecast/5841-2011-winter-weather-preview.html

i still think we will have a decent cold snap after the first week of Dec..
patterns change every 6 weeks or so.. we have been warm since the first week of Nov , so that puts a change around 1st or 2nd week of Dec

As of 4:20pm today there is a Winter Storm Watch for Manchester, VT from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

snow to rain then warm.. sooo sad

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON
  VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF
  VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
  AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND
  ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN
  ALL WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
  MIX WITH RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF
  WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SNOW.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET WILL MAKE FOR
  HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT
  FROM FALLEN TREE LIMBS.

* WINDS...WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
  SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15 MPH TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

From Darrin at Adirondack Weathersite and definitely worth reading:

http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2011/11/winds-of-change-cometh.html

Darin is right, the cold air is coming. The problem is the pattern is very progressive..We will get cold , but the cold will not last. Until we get some blocking in the North Atlantic, we are in for a rough ride...

From NWS Albany:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HAVE ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD. THE THEME WILL BE A BIG COOL DOWN. IT WILL FEEL LIKE DECEMBER. FIRST CDFNT PASSES THROUGH REGION THU. THE ARCTIC FRONT FOLLOWS FRI. WITH DEEPENING 500HPA TROF OF SETTING UP OVER E USA.

EACH FRONT MAY BE ACCOMP BY -SHSN...AND LAKE RESPONSE POSSIBLE BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT FOR SAT. TEMPS NR OR BLO NORMS...VRBL CLOUDS AND CHC -SHSN. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE THAT DIVED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY EAST AND ITS SFC LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THEN THERE`S THE 8-12 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE THAT SUGGEST ITS COMING UP THE COAST WITH SNOW PSBL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH TWO DETERMINISTIC MODELS...HWVR AS THIS EVOLVES OTHER SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS IS BCMG AND INCRGLY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

Lionel:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/cool-it-bro-seasonal-cold-air-to-return/

Adk Jeff wrote

If it seems like it's taking longer for winter to arrive ...

Well, not sure if it's meaningful or not, but I've put together a comparison of daily highs, lows & weather conditions for Lake Placid from 2006/2007 and 2011 from November 15 to December 7, using historical data from http://www.wunderground.com. Unfortunately, the patterns are fairly similar, with the high and low temperature deviations being pretty equally split, in terms of 2011 being warmer than or colder than 2006.

2006_To_2011_LP_Weather_Comparison.xls

The bad news, is that looking at the data from 2006/2007, and assuming the pattern continues to hold, we may be in for another 4 weeks of this!

The good news, is that in 2007, the pattern changed the second week of January, and then there were 6 solid weeks of colder weather.

As someone who has absolutely NO training or education in atmospheric sciences, I have no idea weather (pun intended) this matters or not, but I can't help but think that there may be something to the anecdotal evidence.

Oh yeah ... and 2007 was the year of the Martin Luther King Day storm, the Valentines Day storm and the St. Patrick's Day storm ... Here's hoping!!!

Face4Me wrote

Oh yeah ... and 2007 was the year of the Martin Luther King Day storm, the Valentines Day storm and the St. Patrick's Day storm ... Here's hoping!!!

+1000

We're not coming up this weekend due to the crappy conditions.  It's about 4 1/2 hours each way from home to Gore.  My wife and I will NOW be spending about the same amount of time in the car this weekend with hockey practices and birthday parties thanks to mother nature.  Fox lair to sunway to quicksilver's not seeming so bad....

I too have noticed the 06-07 early season comparisons. October storm, warm November, luke warm December with early storm that melted out, lots of late openings and WRODs going late into December. 06/07 was a great season for me. Four days in October and skiing trees at Jay was a cool beginning but the pain and suffering in Nov/Dec was worth it for the whallops we got during the second half of the season. A repeat of 06/07 would make me very happy.

Oh man, a thing of beauty.

was 06-07 a la nina year?

I thought 06-07 was El Nino?

I have been watching the medium term temp maps for a month and this is the first time I've seen the mountains of the east outside of the warm zone:



Granted these maps can fluctuate quite a bit, but I'm scouring my links for something positive, and this is what I got.

Face4Me wrote

Oh yeah ... and 2007 was the year of the Martin Luther King Day storm, the Valentines Day storm and the St. Patrick's Day storm ... Here's hoping!!!

Don't forget the ridiculous ice storm we had around the 15th that flipped the winter switch to the "on" position.

Exactly what is that thing in the second photo Fuj, ice-coated KFC?