Which forecast is the best?

I'm looking at the NWS forcast for WF and for sake of a another data point Killington.  I'm comparing that to the Accuweather for Lake Placid and Killington.  They are different and the Accuweather one tends to be less snowy and warmer.  We have lots to weather guys out there - please tell me what forecast I should rely on.

The LP NWS forecast comes out of Burlington..Those guys live and work in the region. They understand (i hope)  the idiosyncrasies of the region..
Accu comes out of Central Pa..

The one that says we're getting the most snow. Duh.


I generally go with NOAA. Or LionelHutz. So far he has been spot on, 3/3.

adirondack wunderground

I'm with Fuj, whoever is forecasting the most.  I often stick with WRGB for points south of Gore.  Mountain forecasts are a waste IMO, never accurate.  Part of the adventure in the morning

so accuweather is forecasting a low of 23 in wilmington wed night and NWS is forecasting 11

this is a huge difference how can they explain it?

ausable skier wrote

so accuweather is forecasting a low of 23 in wilmington wed night and NWS is forecasting 11

this is a huge difference how can they explain it?

If I can't get something mountain specific (like Lionel from FIS) I use NWS point forecasts.  They have two advantages in my mind.

First, I think (Jason?) they use a BLEND of models, so error is lower.

Second NWS has a point forecast system that accounts (to some degree) for elevation. If you are using the NWS whiteface link on the Harvey Road homepage, that is an estimate for temps at 3800 feet.

In each of our homepage links, I've tried to pinpoint the summit of mountain listed. While you will never get the full summit elevation you get a better approximation for what it happening at the mountain. Accuweather is guessing at what you get in town.

Here is the current NWS forecast for WHITEFACE (looks pretty good to me!)

Note in the lower right the elevation is noted as 3884:



ALSO NWS Burlington has a very cool feature that I haven't seen from Albany or any other NWS office. It's called the "Higher Summits Forecast."  Burlington covers Whiteface. It gives an idea of what weather is like up top:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/BTV/RECBTV.20111204202619

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/point/

I've stopped using NWS forecasts. I haven't seen a good track record for them and their point forecasts just don't get the job done very well. Might work for non-mountainous terrain but it is missing something for the mountains that accounts for some variances. NWS is okay if you just need a quick glance to get a general gist. But when I want a real forecast for planning purposes, I look elsewhere.

thanks Harv i didn't see the elevation in the NWS point forecast before so that helps explain it

i use the NOAO MT forecast all the time but its only a 2 day view which makes it very accurate but not much vis out

We Hinterlandians place great faith in the forecasting ability of the weatherstick:

Hinterlandians use sticks and Vermonters use rocks. Who knew?

too funny

We made one of these at boy scout camp every year haha brings back some awesome memories!