Winter Weather (2013-2014)

PeeTex wrote

That looks like some serious luck pushin.

Ilsnow.com hasn't posted, but on Facebook Darrin is implying that he sees an extended stretch of cold in our future.

Outside of some light snow tonight, does anyone see potential in the models over the next 10 days?

I don't read models myself, but I do follow blogs of some of the forecasters out there.  With the Polar Vortex back it looks like we are setting up to have the Polar Jet dominate the northern half of the country, with the Pacific Jet bringing storms across the south.  That setup looks to stay around for a while, with cold weather right through the month of March.  A couple clipper type disturbances between now and Sunday, with light snow.  Unless there is some phasing of the Polar and Pacific Jets we could be looking at more of the same clipper activity, as March looks to be active/unsettled.  Looks like there is a chance for some phasing and a bigger snow event early next week.  Fingers crossed.

Time for a Storm Speculation thread on this one?  NWS calling 50% chance of snow 5 days out seems as real as it gets. Not sure about all of this except that it means chance of snow

SUN NT-MON...

THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND WAVE SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING E/NE...ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUN NT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN P-TYPE FOR MOST AREAS.

BASED ON THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE 00Z/26 MODELS WITH REGARD TO STRONGEST MID LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE...HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.

Is this (far left) the storm? on the 144 hour?  Looks a bit north:

where is that map from?
looks like Jackson Pollack painting

Temps in the single digits - too cold for significant snowfall, high west winds and snow making virtually shut down - should make for a fine polish. Any light snow will be blown off the trails and there won't be enough to make the woods much fun. Just call me Mr. Sunshine. We either need a warmup for spring corn or a dumper for more powder. The Polar screw job is not what we need.

Harvey wrote

PeeTex wrote

That looks like some serious luck pushin.

Anyone with 1/2 a brain wandering around the woods the last 2 weeks could have seen that coming

PeeTex wrote

Temps in the single digits - too cold for significant snowfall, high west winds and snow making virtually shut down - should make for a fine polish. Any light snow will be blown off the trails and there won't be enough to make the woods much fun. Just call me Mr. Sunshine. We either need a warmup for spring corn or a dumper for more powder. The Polar screw job is not what we need.

why so negative??.starting sunday a significant baroclinic zone might be setting up over the NJ. this might produce decent over running snows for the cats and points south..

JasonWx wrote

why so negative??

Here's your snow showing up on the GFS:

JasonWx wrote

why so negative??.starting sunday a significant baroclinic zone might be setting up over the NJ. this might produce decent over running snows for the cats and points south..

I'm not in point's south.

Snoloco in the wheelhouse?

From National Weather Service for Saranac Lake.  

From Nov thru March:  60 days below 0F

March 2014:
# Days with:
MAX 32 OR BELOW:  19    
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  30    
MIN  0 OR BELOW:  18    

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 13.1F  
DPTR FM NORMAL: -11.4F  
HIGHEST:    42F ON 28    
LOWEST:    -29F ON 17            

Feb 2014
# Days with:                  
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 21
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 28
MIN 0 OR BELOW: 13

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 12.0F  
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -2.9F  
HIGHEST:    42F ON 21    
LOWEST:    -30F ON 12      

Jan 2014: 
# Days with:
MAX 32 OR BELOW:  23  
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  30    
MIN  0 OR BELOW:  16    

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 10.9F  
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -2.4F  
HIGHEST:    49F ON 11  
LOWEST:    -30F ON 22    

Dec 2013:
# Days with:
MAX 32 OR BELOW:  20  
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  31    
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   9

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 17.9  
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -1.1  
HIGHEST:    50F ON  5    
LOWEST:    -28F ON 17

Nov 2013:
# Days with:
MAX 32 OR BELOW:  12  
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  29    
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   4

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 26.8  
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -5.5  
HIGHEST:    59 ON  1    
LOWEST:    -13 ON 30