Market Philosophy: What You Got?

PeeTex wrote

What we need is a progressive republican and that will be hard to find.

I agree.  I don't think Bernie would get much done being labeled as a Democrat in the current landscape.  

If he wins the nomination, I think the Sanders strategists should position him more as an pro-gun, anti-corporate independent.  For me, a lot of his appeal comes from his anti-corporation and wealth inequity rhetoric.

Liberals just be patient.  Eventually they win on every issue

PeeTex wrote

I agree with about 80% of what he says. However he is not the guy to get the job done. You need someone from the right side of the aisle to effectively change things. The right will fight him tooth and nail and nothing will get done. We need a progressive republican and dare I say it - the Donald is the closest thing we got.

I have no idea what Trump brings to the table on economic issues because anything he would do from a CEO/economic perspective is overshadowed by the awful things he says and the way he goes about things. I shudder to think what might happen to this country from an international relationship perspective with such an arrogant and antagonistic schmuck in charge. Our best days as a country will truly be behind us and our position as a world leader will be in doubt if Trump was ever elected.

Bernie... I voted for Bernie when I lived in VT and I like Bernie. But I think he has too much rhetoric and I don't think he'd be willing to compromise and reach across the aisle. I like Bernie's politics the best but I don't think he stands a chance in the general election if he receives the nomination. Actually, considering how badly the Republican Party as a whole is conducting itself right now and how terrible its best candidates are... it should be a walk in the park for the Dem nomination yet I don't think we have a good candidate for the general election yet. Kinda a scary thought considering what the RP is putting up right now.

Any economic progress is only going to happen with bipartisan support and I don't know if the current political climate is ready for that... I think the base that is voting in the primary wants candidates on the extreme ends of the spectrum rather than those that can compromise.

the party primary systems end up creating extreme nominated candidates that only appeal to each side.  The problem is that does not create a president that can actually create a consensus to govern after the fact.  Bernie and trump both would be a dumpster fire as Potus because of this.  A few of the Gop candidates are moderate but it will be hard for them to get nominated and I don't see anyone moderate in the Dems.

Back to the point if this thread if Bernie by some freak of nature got elected you can kiss your retirement account goodbye. The market would drop 5000 points overnight.  Hate to say it but Hill wouldn't hurt the market much.

Coach Z wrote

Bernie and trump both would be a dumpster fire

ROFLMAO.  Have to add that one to my repertoire.

nepa wrote

PeeTex wrote

What we need is a progressive republican and that will be hard to find.

I agree.  I don't think Bernie would get much done being labeled as a Democrat in the current landscape.  

If he wins the nomination, I think the Sanders strategists should position him more as an pro-gun, anti-corporate independent.  For me, a lot of his appeal comes from his anti-corporation and wealth inequity rhetoric.

You mean Bernie's a socialist?

I'm not exactly sure why...I feel like we're at the top...I can feel it in my bones...  unless, of course trump sends us to War, we're headed for a big correction (at least 10%... maybe 20).  Get out of the Casino now.

nepa predicts!

I know enough to say I have no idea what the market is going to do. It does seem like after a 9 year bull market, there will be a correction at some point. On the other hand, an upper income tax cut will make the investor class very happy.

I started putting new money into a 50% stock/25% Cash/25% Bond mix instead of my usual 100% stock mix. If we do get a nice 20% correction, I'll switch it back to 100% stocks.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

nepa predicts!

You know me MC... I'm talking about a Trumpified Financial Armageddon.

No question that when the market has run up, (and it's up for the last 8 years or more) it's vulnerable to fear.

I started to feel old last September and went from 95/5 to 70/30, with more than half of new contribs going to bonds.  Still I think most would consider 70/30 pretty heady for a guy who is 58+.

My gut tells me nepa is right, but somehow I can't bring myself to act on it.

Be interesting to see if a huge drop changes my contributions back to stocks. I wouldn't change existing.

Wall Street working hard to keep tRump from total failure before 2018 mid terms.  They will keep the DOW climbing to make sure the strangle old on our government remains.  Then dump for record profits!    

nepa wrote

I'm not exactly sure why...I feel like we're at the top...I can feel it in my bones...  unless, of course trump sends us to War, we're headed for a big correction (at least 10%... maybe 20).  Get out of the Casino now.

Well, this prediction didn't go as well as your incredible Bitcoin play.

But if we're trying to call the top, put me down for here (yesterday's close, I guess). I feel like the tax cut is already priced in, and if something happens to derail it (http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/363306-ryans-office-warning-he-wasnt-part-of-deal-on-obamacare-source?amp), there might be a lot of pissed off investors.

On the other hand, where are these investors gonna go with their money? Bonds? Cash? Gotta think there will be a floor around Dow 20,000 or so.

It should be interesting. Although to be honest this will be the first crash where I am really vested in it.  In the past it was merely a buying opportunity.

Over/Under: How much time will elapse after the correction before Trump stops taking credit for the market, and blames it on sOmebody else?  :)

Your last statement will be the case , Trump never stands behind anything or anyone . At best he is a chamelion at worst a sociopath.

Its my assumption that a structural correction will most likely occur in 2018 . if the Marketeers can "game " the system until after the elections they will have won , but my guess is they will be unable to forstall the impact of the law of unintended consequences as this tax plan carries forward .  Strictly musing here , just a gut feeling that the wave machine will break apart and the wave will tank

warp daddy wrote

Its my assumption that a structural correction will most likely occur in 2018 . if the Marketeers can "game " the system until after the elections they will have won , but my guess is they will be unable to forstall the impact of the law of unintended consequences as this tax plan carries forward .  Strictly musing here , just a gut feeling that the wave machine will break apart and the wave will tank

That, plus I think that a lot of people are holding on to investments that made money for them until next year. Why take the tax hit for 2017, when you might get a tax cut for 2018 that will minimize the amount you have to pay?

Interesting. You calling a Jan 2 sell off?

MC   correct stay in the game till the new year then rebalance . You young guns need to be in the game and diversify

Whereas us older farts who are in the last quarter of our life span , well our tactics now are primarily preservation . One goal is to pass some thru to succeeding generations . .  As you know from past conversations , i am out of the conspicuous consumption phase . Actually been there for over 20 yrs now . Hey  we are set and playing the HNW game and sleep well at night 😎😎

It does piss me off  that the fat rat bastard screws the middle class and hurts many with the effing abomination of a tax plan 👹 .  But ever the optimist I am  hoping those Two Big Macs , followed by TWO fried fish sandwiches and a big shake DO THEIR TRick ☠.  Hey  Trumpfatass you WANT fries with that ?. Bwaa hahahaha

warp daddy wrote

 .  But ever the optimist I am  hoping those Two Big Macs , followed by TWO fried fish sandwiches and a big shake DO THEIR TRick ☠.  Hey  Trumpfatass you WANT fries with that ?. Bwaa hahahaha

I was listening to his speech on the radio today, and it sounded like he had a stroke when he said "United States"

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/god-blesh-united-shtatesh-donald-11651106

I thought he might be having a stroke.

If you really think the market is going to correct on Jan 2 why wouldn't you rebalance now?  It seems like a lot to risk for 15 days of potential gain.  That's some serious market timing.

If (like me) your pennies are in a 401k, you find out the market is tanking in the morning and if you sell, you get the price at end of day.  That sounds like selling low to me.

I don't market time but at 59 I am getting more conservative every year.