Winter Weather 2017-2018

So, 3 of the top 10 have been in the last 7 years, including last year (wasn't it predicted to be cooler because of La Nina?) and the #1 warmest year, 2015-2016? And that's supposed to make me feel better?

I mean, I guess I should applaud you for not being so pessimistic, but I don't see a lot to like in that graph.

My problem is that Eastern skiing has always been on the cusp - a couple of degrees one way or the other could mean the difference between an epic storm (week, month, season, etc.) or a total shitshow. That graph doesn't fill me with hope. And, speaking of the warm temps of the last 3 years, this isn't great either:

NorEaster27 wrote

70s to a few inches tomorrow night:

I'm sure you have seen the potential shit show for this weekend...

MC2 5678F589 wrote

So, 3 of the top 10 have been in the last 7 years, including last year (wasn't it predicted to be cooler because of La Nina?) and the #1 warmest year, 2015-2016? And that's supposed to make me feel better?

I mean, I guess I should applaud you for not being so pessimistic, but I don't see a lot to like in that graph.

My problem is that Eastern skiing has always been on the cusp - a couple of degrees one way or the other could mean the difference between an epic storm (week, month, season, etc.) or a total shitshow. That graph doesn't fill me with hope. And, speaking of the warm temps of the last 3 years, this isn't great either:

MC you are to young to remember the  shit winters of the early 70's and the shit show winters in the 80's.
before snowmaking eastern areas struggled to operate ..

JasonWx wrote

not as bizarre as you think.. Yes I think we are warming up , but North Eastern winters have always been volatile.
we have had many winters with temps in the 70's followed by big snows..
Look at the chart for ALB..6 of the record warm winters were before 1940..3 of the winters were even before we burned oil or even mass quantities of coal..
 

i agree. i have been skiing for 40 years , which by now i'm sure you are tired of hearing. there have been shit'y winters for as long as i can remember. just have to take it in stride and chase powder when it falls. wait a couple of days and it can be toast.

Any data that we have collected is basically a short term study sample, no doubt but what those averages don't show are the extreme fluctuations that I believe are increasing and it's not just out east, it's all over. Those fluctuations are going to make things really hard on weather based industries like skiing or agriculture.

Whoa --- cold front just got here. Just dropped 10 degrees in an hour, it's under 60 now

RA is smarter than he looks!

It was 65 out in the Valleys of the PNW last week....  this week....



Prognosis Blower!!!

ScottyJack wrote

RA is smarter than he looks!

I love a compliment as much as the next guy so thanks you but to be honest I don't think it should take smarts to see what the heck is (to me) obviously going on all around us. I definitely have become a better person from the last three years of school though, it's a good investment for sure.

That being said, imo the only way to explain climate change deniers is cognitive dissonance. It's good to be skeptical and question any information that's presented to us but this shit is right there in front of us.

The real question about climate change is "what are you going to do about it?"  I'm fairly confident that we're f***ed.  It would take too much economically and people aren't willing to give up that much.

The climate has been changing for as long as there has been a climate.  Doesn't mean that humans aren't slobs and making it worse.  Just means humans aren't the only factor.  We can though start respecting the earth more though in general.  Less single use plastics, less burning of fossil fuels etc.  Just stop being such slobs across the board.  

D.B. Cooper wrote

The real question about climate change is "what are you going to do about it?"  I'm fairly confident that we're f***ed.  It would take too much economically and people aren't willing to give up that much.

I can't say I disagree unfortunately. I'm feeling too old to really care more than what I can do on a personal, micro level.

RA do you have any formal training in climate dynamics? Its definitely not "all in front of us" and you are making broad based climate assumptions to claim evidence of increased weather extremes.  This is dangerous and not good science.  With that said, of course humans are having a direct impact on climate and associated weather.  Burning fossil fuels and the associated carbon that was once locked deep in the earth and releasing it into the atmosphere is going to have immediate effects on large scale climate.  What is hard is determining how the increase in one variable impacts thousands of other variables in an chaotic climate of ocean, land, and atmosphere.

D.B. Cooper wrote

The real question about climate change is "what are you going to do about it?"  I'm fairly confident that we're f***ed.  It would take too much economically and people aren't willing to give up that much.

Sadly, I agree with DB Cooper here.

I'm going to continue to vote for people that at very least recognize its existence and don't call it a Russian hoax, but we're at the point where we need a carbon tax, and I don't think any politician gets elected if he runs on that platform.

It’s 80 degrees in New Jersey today. Out here we go from extremely wet years to complete droughts the next. The fires today are unlike anything we’ve seen before.

I am a meteorologist

That last part was a joke but dude, it doesn’t take one to see what’s going on.

Yes it's 80 out here today broke the record that was set in 1930, there is record cold in the northern Rockies also.  The fires are completely due to human interaction, that cause and effect is very clear.  Going from drought to floods has a multitude of factors with land use changes being orders of mangtuide higher than co2 increases

The fires are not completely due to human interaction.

I think the real question is, which part of our region is likely to have the most acceptable conditions this weekend, based on what happened today and what’s likely tomorrow and Friday? Anyone?

brown, saturday might be the only day to ski..sunday looks to be a washout

You figure the further north the better? Or it makes no difference?