Market Philosophy: What You Got?

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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Jamesdeluxe
Z wrote
The issue now is that it is hot down south so people are partying inside instead of outside.  The transmission rate is dramatically lower outside than inside in AC.
When did the conventional wisdom (particularly the administration's) stop claiming that warmer weather would kill off the virus?
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
In reply to this post by Z
Z wrote
.  More than half of all new cases are under 35 years old and they are spreading it to their parents and coworkers.
For someone who said he was a Trump voter, you’re really discounting the demographics of who is getting tested now vs. who had been tested previously.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
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In reply to this post by MC2 5678F589
It was sarcasm. The point was why would anyone spend their own money to pay someone to do nothing?  The answer is they wouldn't.

You wouldn't and neither would I.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

campgottagopee
Just for the record I knew you were being sarcastic, Harv.

Anyway, getting ready to head out to Lake George for the weekend. First road trip in a while. Looking forward to it.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

campgottagopee
In reply to this post by Harvey
Harvey wrote
  The idea that if you own a company you must be rich, is bs.

 
A very good friend of mine is a small business owner. He will always tell you that his employee's and vendors get paid 1st and 2nd, he gets paid 3rd. Sometimes #3 doesn't always get paid that week.
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
In reply to this post by Jamesdeluxe
Jamesdeluxe wrote
Z wrote
The issue now is that it is hot down south so people are partying inside instead of outside.  The transmission rate is dramatically lower outside than inside in AC.
When did the conventional wisdom (particularly the administration's) stop claiming that warmer weather would kill off the virus?
Sun and being outside makes transmission less likely
The problem is in summer in south and south west no one spends their summer days outside they are inside in AC circulating the air

Good news for skiing is being outside is a plus.  Can we run ski areas with lodges being used?
if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
In reply to this post by campgottagopee
Campy
Is it mostly starter cars you are out of stock on?

We are buying a F150 and found the bottom end low on stock but some dealers are up to thier gills in Lariats so you can get the better deal on the higher end
if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
In reply to this post by Harvey
Harvey wrote
It was sarcasm. The point was why would anyone spend their own money to pay someone to do nothing?  The answer is they wouldn't.

You wouldn't and neither would I.
Our tax dollars are going to your company (and others) for that exact reason. The point was to keep people on payroll even if the work slows down. Other countries did the same thing (paid people to not work).

Maybe that’s why I missed the “sarcasm”. I thought we were talking about PPP.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
Administrator
Originally TJ was talking about before PPP.

I was talking about after. We run out around 7/15.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Marcski
The idea was to get less people on unemployment (those are bad numbers for an incumbent going into an election) and "keep more people working" even though in lots of instances there wasn't enough work for them so, yes, they sat home and their employers were stuck continuing to have to pay for their share of the withholding taxes.  
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
Administrator
We don't mind paying the taxes.

The downside is the paperwork, uncertainty and employee resentment.

I guess the upside is you get to see who really wants to work?
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
Good article on why we have such a persistent trade deficit:

https://theweek.com/articles/923813/why-trumps-trade-war-failed

 The answer can be found in a brilliant new book by journalist Matthew Klein and economist Michael Pettis, Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace. Trump's trade war failed because he did not understand what is actually driving the problems with the world trade system. The United States has a massive and destructive trade deficit because it has become the world's consumer of last resort, which in turn is the product of inequality in foreign countries and the dollar's role in the international financial system. In effect, America has become the victim of its own centrality in the global economy. However, it is a great mistake to think of this as the fault of foreign countries. As the book's title indicates, the real competition is between rich elites and working-class people of all countries. So far elites have been winning, and the result is a dysfunctional trade system that has wreaked social carnage across the world.

Klein and Pettis have a complex and penetrating analysis of world trade, but their basic argument is quite easy to understand. It is an observed fact that rich people save more of their income than working-class or poor ones. Therefore, the more unequal a country is, the more it will struggle to actually consume all that its economy is capable of producing. A severely unequal country is liable to fall into a permanent mild depression, with high unemployment and idle economic capacity, because its workers do not have enough income to consume what they produce.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

tjf1967
The annualized return for the S&P 500 from 1990 to 2019 was 7.7%. Yet, if you missed
only the best day of each year, that return dropped to only 3.9%. Miss the best two
days of each year, and you were up less than 1% a year. Taking it to the extreme,
if you missed the best 20 days of each year, you’d be down 27% per year
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
That would have been awful hard to do, having your money in on the worst days, but missing out on the best days.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Harvey
Administrator
It's not really saying that it would be easy to miss the best days. It's a standard theoretical argument against marketing timing, pro buy-and-hold.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
Z
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z
In reply to this post by MC2 5678F589
Typical MC jibberish

The American standard And quality of living for the bottom 20% of workers (not freeloaders that won’t work) is much higher than it was back in the 70s and 80s and light years ahead of 100 years ago

If you get an education and work hard you can live the American dream.  Even if you don’t do those things you are better off in America than just about everywhere else on Earth.

if You French Fry when you should Pizza you are going to have a bad time
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

campgottagopee
Z wrote
 

If you get an education and work hard you can live the American dream.  Even if you don’t do those things you are better off in America than just about everywhere else on Earth.
Concur 100%

I'll add that an education does not necessarily mean college either.
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

MC2 5678F589
In reply to this post by Z
Yes, why would we want 6 weeks of vacation, free childcare, free healthcare, unions, and beautiful parks, public transportation and public services when we can have crumbling infrastructure, no support for parents, and jobs with no vacation, low wages & no healthcare.

Certainly the middle classes in other countries are in terrible shape compared to us 🙄
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

nepa
In reply to this post by Z
Z wrote
The American standard And quality of living for the bottom 20% of workers (not freeloaders that won’t work) is much higher than it was back in the 70s and 80s and light years ahead of 100 years ago
Many would agree that the dream you speak of has been dead for a while... If things are good for you, you believe in the dream.  Heck, the conservative media outlets have done a fantastic job of creating an Army of American Dream evangelists like yourself.  I think the Dream has become our version of a Societal Ponzi scheme.  Just like people loved Bernie Madoff.  They we're living the Investment Dream.  

I'm certainly not anti-capitalist, but I do see the quality of life elsewhere just as good.  The Dream was good for me... I was brought up on it.  I worked hard, made lots of money, both legal and illegal.  With all that said, I don't believe the Dream is as available a as it's portrayed.  It's easy to proclaim its virtue as many in our generation have benefited from a system that systemically shits on people of all types.
Z wrote
If you get an education and work hard you can live the American dream.  Even if you don’t do those things you are better off in America than just about everywhere else on Earth.
If you were an African American would you say the same thing?
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Re: Market Philosophy: What You Got?

campgottagopee
nepa wrote
Z wrote
If you get an education and work hard you can live the American dream.  Even if you don’t do those things you are better off in America than just about everywhere else on Earth.
If you were an African American would you say the same thing?
I don't even understand your question. What do you mean?
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