Market Philosophy: What You Got?

JTG4eva! wrote

Z wrote

When MC and I agree watch out.

So, assuming you both took money off the table last week like you’d been talking about, what’s your trigger for re-engaging that $ in stocks?

I took about 15% of my retirement fund out of stocks and put it in cash (Stable income fund).

I’m watching politics more than the Fed. If there is a chance that an infrastructure/State bailout bill passes (like Mnuchin is pushing), the market will take off like a rocket and I’ll want that money in play. I would think that such a bill would be timed for maximum political benefit (probably going in September), so I’ll get back in in August after some big down day.

Looks like lots of people are going into cash:


From: https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-sitting-on-the-biggest-pile-of-cash-ever-11592299801

I suppose that would bode well for the equities market once we get some confidence back?

JTG4eva! wrote

I suppose that would bode well for the equities market once we get some confidence back?

I get the same sense. That article also mentions that bank account balances are rising. Some evidence to suggest that there is pent up demand. My Facebook feed is full of white women who are rushing to TJ Maxx & Marshall’s (and waiting in lines to get into the stores!).

I watched a little CNBC this morning. Cramer thinks that this lockdown has been “Darwinism” and that the strong companies (most of the corporations that we buy stock in) will come out stronger while the weak players (small businesses, mom & pops, etc.) will get destroyed & close up shop.

I saw that same piece with Craemer
He seems exasperated with the Robinhood investors not buying on fundamentals
He goes nuts when he talks about the people using stocks to replace sports betting in airlines, cruise lines and Hertz

I find this market crazy.  So much cash on the sidelines and record low ownership in stock Mutual funds which is bullish sign but I can’t get over that it’s skyrocketing with lousy earnings for 90% of stocks.  Cash is yielding essentially 0 so that money eventually will have to seek return

I’m not thinking of buying but I can’t bring myself to sell more either.

So you are saying that marketing timing can be tough because the market isn't always logical in the short term?

Harvey wrote

So you are saying that marketing timing can be tough because the market isn't always logical in the short term?

I think it’s a bunch of people with incomplete information making the decisions that they think are in their best interest, but nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. Sort of like everything else during COVID.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

I think it’s a bunch of people with incomplete information making the decisions that they think are in their best interest, but nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. Sort of like everything else during COVID.

Sounds kind of like a multi-trillion dollar Casino game

nepa wrote

Sounds kind of like a multi-trillion dollar Casino game

Guy who made hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bitcoin casino game (and has recently dipped his toe into the Western acreage casino game): “The stock market? Sounds like a casino game”

MC2 5678F589 wrote

nepa wrote

Sounds kind of like a multi-trillion dollar Casino game

Guy who made hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bitcoin casino game (and has recently dipped his toe into the Western acreage casino game): “The stock market? Sounds like a casino game”

My Bitcoin win was what a call a cash windfall associated with lifestyle.... in other words dumb-luck.

The land is not really that speculative.  I just sold my house.  My new spot is about half-way between Stevens and Mission (40 minutes).  First we'll build our new home, and then put a couple of tiny houses in strategic locations on the property to be used as rentals.  It's a fantastic spot for ski rentals.

MC2 5678F589 wrote

Guy who made hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bitcoin casino game (and has recently dipped his toe into the Western acreage casino game): “The stock market? Sounds like a casino game”

Does that disqualify him from rendering an opinion, or are you just highlighting irony?

Harvey wrote

MC2 5678F589 wrote

Guy who made hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bitcoin casino game (and has recently dipped his toe into the Western acreage casino game): “The stock market? Sounds like a casino game”

Does that disqualify him from rendering an opinion, or are you just highlighting irony?

Na... I probably would have said the same thing if I didn't know me.  

It's anybody's guess.  I'm a fundamentals guy... the global fundamentals don't look good to me... that's a red flag.  

I'm wasn't totally out for this run.  I made 1 bet.  My time-frame was 30 to 60 days.  I put a bet in on a company named Twilio a couple of months ago (a cloud service provider similar to Zoom).  It paid off, so now I'm in wait mode until the next panic... I'm thinking 3rd quarter numbers will cause some significant volatility.  
 

Harvey wrote

Does that disqualify him from rendering an opinion, or are you just highlighting irony?

It was kinda jokey banter, shoulda added more emojis.

nepa wrote

MC2 5678F589 wrote

nepa wrote

Sounds kind of like a multi-trillion dollar Casino game

Guy who made hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bitcoin casino game (and has recently dipped his toe into the Western acreage casino game): “The stock market? Sounds like a casino game”

My Bitcoin win was what a call a cash windfall associated with lifestyle.... in other words dumb-luck.

The land is not really that speculative.  I just sold my house.  My new spot is about half-way between Stevens and Mission (40 minutes).  First we'll build our new home, and then put a couple of tiny houses in strategic locations on the property to be used as rentals.  It's a fantastic spot for ski rentals.

Is your new location near this place?

x10003q wrote

Is your new location near this place?

Yup.  It's about 15 minutes the Bavarian village of Leavenworth.  

nepa wrote

x10003q wrote

Is your new location near this place?

Yup.  It's about 15 minutes the Bavarian village of Leavenworth.

We traveled thru there a few years ago. It is beautiful.  I would love to retire to the area (including Wenatchee), but I doubt I can convince the wife to join me.

Some support for Z’s theory that a lot of US companies are terrible and will be dying soon (if they haven’t already):

That's a dramatic rise.  I guess the question is, is that reflected in their stock price?

I certainly wouldn't call our company strong by any measure, but our only debt is our building, its a significant number but it drops by about $2000 each month.  Our profits come and go.

This is primarily because of my own risk aversion.  TJ thought I pulled the trigger too quick on our layoffs back in March, but I'm not going to take on debt without work lined up.

Yes, as noted businessman Jadakiss once said:


Still sucks for the people you had to fire. Good thing we have a system of taxpayer funded unemployment benefits.

The PPP rules were relaxed and that has helped a lot. (The way the original rules were written we were going to have to give half of it back. With the new rules we can use all of it. It will run out around 7/15.

We'll likely layoff again, but hopefully a smaller number of people.  Hard to say, another customer just cut us back on Monday. It's a big tradeshow that was cancelled.

One thing that has been really cool, one of our writers has really stepped up her game, helping me with all kinds of stuff outside of her "area."  Makes much more sense to keep her now. There is a lot more for her to do.

Send me 100k if you want, so I can afford another month of payroll.