Market Philosophy: What You Got?

Z wrote

If that happens buy gold and guns

I try and buy every Belgium made Browning A5 I come by. They're money in the bank.

campgottagopee wrote

Z wrote

If that happens buy gold and guns

I try and buy every Belgium made Browning A5 I come by. They're money in the bank.

Nice. The outfitter I worked for in AK loved them too. I can testify that an A-5 under your knee for four hours is not comfortable. Comforting yes- but not comfortable. When I have some extra dough I might try to buy one off of you.

Jim Craemer is absolutely losing his shit this morning on airlines and cruise line stocks going up while laying off staff and cruises not even operating while Carnival is burning $250 million per month.  

They are talking about that you can't buy a bike, boat or RV as they are sold out.  RV makers are up 400% off the March bottom.  

Claims to want to stay out of it, but seems to relish the opportunity to capitalize on any slip up to speak his truth.

More evidence that the market is only rational in the long term.  This is the reason to avoid trying to time the market.

Hit a home run with the NKLA quasi IPO last week
It’s up 66% today and climbing still (edit Ended today up 103%)
Have already doubled + my money In a week


This is the Tesla of trucking.  Selling on a subscription model where you will buy a truck and the refueling of the fuel cell which long term is worth way more than the truck itself.  Brilliant biz plan.  they have orders for 140k trucks already and have halted taking orders for now.

This could be the early retirement stock

Z wrote

Hit a home run with the NKLA quasi IPO last week
It’s up 66% today and climbing still (edit Ended today up 103%)
Have already doubled + my money In a week


This is the Tesla of trucking.  Selling on a subscription model where you will buy a truck and the refueling of the fuel cell which long term is worth way more than the truck itself.  Brilliant biz plan.  they have orders for 140k trucks already and have halted taking orders for now.

This could be the early retirement stock

you only doubled your money if you sold it.. For your sake , I hope you sold it at the end of trading..

Even if he sold, he still doesn't double the money after short term capital gains tax. But still a nice profit.

JasonWx wrote

Z wrote

Hit a home run with the NKLA quasi IPO last week
It’s up 66% today and climbing still (edit Ended today up 103%)
Have already doubled + my money In a week


This is the Tesla of trucking.  Selling on a subscription model where you will buy a truck and the refueling of the fuel cell which long term is worth way more than the truck itself.  Brilliant biz plan.  they have orders for 140k trucks already and have halted taking orders for now.

This could be the early retirement stock

you only doubled your money if you sold it.. For your sake , I hope you sold it at the end of trading..

10:06 am NKLA  57.11 down 16.15 on big volume of over 18 million shares traded

x10003q wrote

JasonWx wrote

Z wrote

Hit a home run with the NKLA quasi IPO last week
It’s up 66% today and climbing still (edit Ended today up 103%)
Have already doubled + my money In a week


This is the Tesla of trucking.  Selling on a subscription model where you will buy a truck and the refueling of the fuel cell which long term is worth way more than the truck itself.  Brilliant biz plan.  they have orders for 140k trucks already and have halted taking orders for now.

This could be the early retirement stock

you only doubled your money if you sold it.. For your sake , I hope you sold it at the end of trading..

10:06 am NKLA  57.11 down 16.15 on big volume of over 18 million shares traded

10:25 now around 70, 24 million traded - crazy volume

it bounced back up at around 79 currently

if you bought Amazon at its IPO and sold it a week later would you be happy now?

I'm not betting the mortgage on it.  I do allocate a small portion of my profolio to take some fliers at growth stocks

My other current one is SOLY which I'm up about 40% in.  They are working on getting fda approval on a tatoo removal medical device that happens to use motors my company makes.  It turns out they discovered that the process also removes cellulite by using ultrasonic energy so its market could be pretty huge.

Craemer had some interesting technical analysis looking at all job recoveries dating back to the 1960's.  Turns out that when you get 6 weeks of signiicantly lower job claims in a row off a bottom the strong bull trend has played out for the next year.

The wild card is the election - also seen a lot of analysis that says changing the current corp tax rates would impact the S&P by 400 points or 12.5%
If you are MC you need to ask your self are you willing to pay 12.5% of your retirement savings plus greatly higher income taxes to get your idea of a workers paradise as well as imposing that on the rest of us

Z wrote

Hit a home run with the NKLA quasi IPO last week
It’s up 66% today and climbing still (edit Ended today up 103%)
Have already doubled + my money In a week


This is the Tesla of trucking.  Selling on a subscription model where you will buy a truck and the refueling of the fuel cell which long term is worth way more than the truck itself.  Brilliant biz plan.  they have orders for 140k trucks already and have halted taking orders for now.

This could be the early retirement stock

Are their fleet vehicles DOT approved in the US?

Z wrote

Craemer had some interesting technical analysis looking at all job recoveries dating back to the 1960's.  Turns out that when you get 6 weeks of signiicantly lower job claims in a row off a bottom the strong bull trend has played out for the next year.

The wild card is the election - also seen a lot of analysis that says changing the current corp tax rates would impact the S&P by 400 points or 12.5%
If you are MC you need to ask your self are you willing to pay 12.5% of your retirement savings plus greatly higher income taxes to get your idea of a workers paradise as well as imposing that on the rest of us

Lol.

This guy doesn’t seem to understand the concept of “demand”.

Also, the S&P has now gone down 12.5% points 4 times in my investing life (since 2000). And we don’t have anything close to a workers paradise now (no paid vacation for a ton workers, no paid sick days, no healthcare, no paid-for higher education or even trade school, etc.). Is that worth a measly 400 points on the S&P? Hell yes.

Z wrote

When MC and I agree watch out.

So, assuming you both took money off the table last week like you’d been talking about, what’s your trigger for re-engaging that $ in stocks?

The latest Fed meeting and unemployment numbers, combined with recent CV-19 spikes (is the virus spreading faster, or is increased testing the driver?), seem to have taken the (irrational) shine off recent market gains.  If today’s losses continue to widen we could be looking at 4% (S&P) to 6% (Dow) losses (or more) since Monday’s close.  How big of an adjustment/correction are you looking for before you get that money off the sidelines?

No turning back ever! Anymore, for me

I sold some profits to build cash back up and moved from individual stocks to some mutual funds to lower risk
I also added a small position in gold which tends to counteract the market

The value stock Shift like airlines and cruises was pure insanity And it only lasted a couple weeks.  Rotation back to quality of earnings plays to my investment strategy.  I still like tech going forward.

Cool Z....but you didn’t answer the question!  You made recent moves to reduce equities risk in the face of a looming downturn.  We’ve seen a sizeable downturn this week.  Assuming you will trend back in the other direction (more equities risk), how much more downturn are you looking to see before you act again?

Z wrote

mutual funds to lower risk

Ha! Some common ground, if covert.

Z wrote

I also added a small position in gold which tends to counteract the market

From what I see this year the two are mostly moving together.

Harvey wrote

Z wrote

some mutual funds to lower risk

Ha! Some common ground, if covert.

Z wrote

I also added a small position in gold which tends to counteract the market

From what I see this year the two are mostly moving together.

It’s not supposed to work that way though.  With all this deficit spending and chaos guns and gold should be the way to go